General Corona virus updates

[BeardOfKnowledge]

*Mississippi has entered the chat*

You might not be giving Australia enough credit.

 

[Deleted member 1]

Interesting..

CDC says COVID-19 cases in U.S. may be 10 times higher than reported

We are probably under counting deaths and cases.

Deaths are likely at 150k-175k based on excess death numbers instead of the 123k confirmed.
10x for tests seems reasonable.

150k/20 million
= 0.75% death rate
Even using 123k you get 0.61%

We've seen for a while now places with lots of testing ( S Korea) can result in 0.5% death rates. So I still believe that's attainable and realistic if you don't have a wildly old or sick population.

 

[Deleted member 1]

You might not be giving Australia enough credit.

I guess they are just eclipsed by the bright shadow of Tasmania in my mind, on this front.

 

[Sheepdog]

*Mississippi has entered the chat*

But this is Melbourne - it's the equivalent of lynch mobs being organised in Portland or San Francisco.

I will grant you that Mississippi is a true HW racism contender and that needs to be respected, but I would throw our homegrown racism hero Far North Queensland in against anyone.

 

[BeardOfKnowledge]

But this is Melbourne - it's the equivalent of lynch mobs being organised in Portland or San Francisco.

I will grant you that Mississippi is a true HW racism contender and that needs to be respected, but I would throw our homegrown racism hero Far North Queensland in against anyone.

*Quebec has entered the chat*

 

[BeardOfKnowledge]

We are probably under counting deaths and cases.

Deaths are likely at 150k-175k based on excess death numbers instead of the 123k confirmed.
10x for tests seems reasonable.

150k/20 million
= 0.75% death rate
Even using 123k you get 0.61%

We've seen for a while now places with lots of testing ( S Korea) can result in 0.5% death rates. So I still believe that's attainable and realistic if you don't have a wildly old or sick population.

You're kind of burying the lead, Doc. This hubub all started because they were worried about a 3-5% mortality rate.

 

[Sheepdog]

We are probably under counting deaths and cases.

Deaths are likely at 150k-175k based on excess death numbers instead of the 123k confirmed.
10x for tests seems reasonable.

150k/20 million
= 0.75% death rate
Even using 123k you get 0.61%

We've seen for a while now places with lots of testing ( S Korea) can result in 0.5% death rates. So I still believe that's attainable and realistic if you don't have a wildly old or sick population.

The fatness will ultimately push you above the Koreans, but the age will keep you below the Europeans.

 

[BeardOfKnowledge]

The fatness will ultimately push you above the Koreans, but the age will keep you below the Europeans.

If people want to keep cases down, just do like Canada. Don't test.

 

[ShatsBassoon]

*Quebec has entered the chat*

Sounds like they are going to only do weekly updates now as opposed to daily.
Lot of folks unhappy about that.

 

[Deleted member 1]

You're kind of burying the lead, Doc. This hubub all started because they were worried about a 3-5% mortality rate.

I don't know anyone that has been concerned about a 3% death rate since like January?
By end of February it was well publicized of an expectation of no interventions is in the same kind of threat as pandemic flus.

My posts straight from Infectious Disease public health doc in Feb 2020:

Covid 19 = disease

Sars cov 2 = virus

Human and animal corona viruses exist and the animal virus jumped

Mers ebola, bird flu, zika, are all other zoonotic viruses that made the jump

Median incubation is 5-6 days (2-14), 27 day data from china not confirmed yet by global standards

China mortality 2.3% but bad data due to undercounting. They count death well but not cases.

SARS was 14% china death rate

Who says number is prob about 1% global

Italy is latest outbreak with major focus due to local spread and not a focus on travelers. Asymptomatic patient spread???

Usa spread not occurring at the moment. They are from travelers but isolated so far

Major variation in presentation.

Children tend to have mild disease.

Over 70 = high mortality

 

[BeardOfKnowledge]

Sounds like they are going to only do weekly updates now as opposed to daily.
Lot of folks unhappy about that.

They're breaking a lot of rules and when they break right, no one reports on it.

 

[ShatsBassoon]

They're breaking a lot of rules and when they break right, no one reports on it.

They've been a mess.
One of the first provinces to reopen schools when they have had they most amount of cases and deaths in the country.

 

[Deleted member 1]

The fatness will ultimately push you above the Koreans, but the age will keep you below the Europeans.

We won't do the contact tracing or testing to meet 0.5%

I expect we'll land pretty close to that current estimate of 0.75% when we are all said and done but higher before then. Maybe hit 1% before we get our heads out of our asses. By then enough infection will occur that the latter cases slow on their own improving access to resources through recovered herd.

 

[BeardOfKnowledge]

i think they were developing an antibody for an engineered bio-weapon, and the weapon escaped.

This has aged well.

 

[BeardOfKnowledge]

They've been a mess.
One of the first provinces to reopen schools when they have had they most amount of cases and deaths in the country.

Kids were fine though.

 

[Sheepdog]

If people want to keep cases down, just do like Canada. Don't test.

We've got our shit together on testing now. They are now just starting to do sweeps of entire suburbs, regardless of symptoms. It's leading retarded people to horde toilet paper again.

Problem is, it still won't work. This city is basically the flu capital of the non-Wuhan world and we are in the middle of flu season. Basically everyone is walking around with coughs and runny noses again and it's just not tenable to catch the ones that actually have COVID from slipping through the net. We would have to wait until summer for any chance of eradication like New Zealand or the rest of Australia.

 

[ShatsBassoon]

We won't do the contact tracing or testing to meet 0.5%

I expect we'll land pretty close to that current estimate of 0.75% when we are all said and done but higher before then. Maybe hit 1% before we get our heads out of our asses. By then enough infection will occur that the latter cases slow on their own improving access to resources through recovered herd.

Heads out of your asses? The US of A has proven that that simply cannot, will not and cannot happen.
Well maybe after the election things will wane. You guys down south need to sort your shit out.

 

[ShatsBassoon]

Kids were fine though.

Sure, but they still are carriers.

 

[Sheepdog]

We won't do the contact tracing or testing to meet 0.5%

I expect we'll land pretty close to that current estimate of 0.75% when we are all said and done but higher before then. Maybe hit 1% before we get our heads out of our asses. By then enough infection will occur that the latter cases slow on their own improving access to resources through recovered herd.

You are basically just stumbling your way to herd immunity. It's possible that up to a quarter of New York's population has already had it. And in time, that may unfortunately prove to be the way to go.

 

[Rambo John J]

We've got our shit together on testing now. They are now just starting to do sweeps of entire suburbs, regardless of symptoms. It's leading retarded people to horde toilet paper again.

Problem is, it still won't work. This city is basically the flu capital of the non-Wuhan world and we are in the middle of flu season. Basically everyone is walking around with coughs and runny noses again and it's just not tenable to catch the ones that actually have COVID from slipping through the net. We would have to wait until summer for any chance of eradication like New Zealand or the rest of Australia.

sweeps?
how does that work?
where do you live?

 

[BeardOfKnowledge]

I don't know anyone that has been concerned about a 3% death rate since like January?
By end of February it was well publicized of an expectation of no interventions is in the same kind of threat as pandemic flus.

My posts straight from Infectious Disease public health doc in Feb 2020:

In January the WHO was still telling us people couldn't get it and China had it handled. You and I have very different recollections of what was being presented to the public by public health authorities.

 

[BeardOfKnowledge]

Sure, but they still are carriers.

Asymptomatic people aren't really carriers.

 

[Deleted member 1]

In January the WHO was still telling us people couldn't get it and China had it handled. You and I have very different recollections of what was being presented to the public by public health authorities.

January is not February. As I just said since January. That was January and a month later things were much clearer.
I typed straight from a conference on the subject in February.


March continued...

Roughly 1% mortality rate. 5% severe illness rate. 80+ % mild.
Hard to compare due to rudimentary health systems but we are seeing that kind of rate in S korea that is the largest outbreak with a modern response. Also limited data as too new and too fe cases. So response is probably not optimal like flu.

Other challenge is that every covid 19 case is gonna be hospitalized right now because we don't know anything yet. That wouldn't happen with flu and eventually that won't happen with this. Hospitalization rates etc are all skewed due to public health protocols not necessarily medical need for that patient.

Under 40 covid 19 is very low mortality...prob about 0.2%. flu is 0.05-0.1% in the same group. But again, that's in a vaccinated population with testing and healthcare response.

Over that age number go up fast and especially in over 70.
Flu infection kills little kids. Covid 19 doesn't seem to. So it's not just mortality but age and med problems ahead of time.

The danger of the virus appears to be fully about our ability to slow it down, not the overblown idea that this thing is black death. I'm in the process of working our search indexes back up so I can't find my own link but take a look at this

What ‘wonderful laboratory’ South Korea can teach world about Covid-19

We've gone from a nearly 10% death rate in Wuhan to 5% death rate in overwhelmed countries to 0.5% in Korea.

How did we get such a significant drop? Lies damn lies and statistics. Firstly the original death rate at ground zero was due to only testing people that were the most severe so the number was wrong.


But even beyond that you have real numbers like Italy that probably has a 5% 7% death rate at its peak it seems to be finally catching up. Why is that? They started testing and social distancing.

If I have 15 ventilators and 16 patients somebody dies. If I can wait one week I can do all 16 patients and nobody dies.

one of my biggest concerns with complaining that the government is trying to control us and things like that in the middle of all of this is the harm. Real harm.The government should be banning large centralized events. That's not an attack on your personal freedom. That is how you stop 10 times as many people from dying. The government should be looking at how people get incentivized to not go out and be in the middle of large centralized events. I don't know what that looks like but sometimes that might look like financial things that are really unpopular with some people. But if you rail that the government's doing everything just to get us, that undermines the social structure of us realizing how simple it is to bring those numbers down so dramatically. And once you realize that you can bring the numbers down really dramatically with just hand washing and hanging out at home watching Netflix, the thing is a hell of a lot less scary.

Like I'm making jokes about toilet paper but I think there's real harm and idiots stockpiling that. Who's buying extra toilet paper in a panic? People being manipulated instead of prepared and people who already have resources. Who does that leave left?

For the last 3 weeks I've purchased slightly more groceries than I usually do. This is just like prepping for the hurricane season. you don't make a run on the pump at the end. You actually are part of the problem. Your panic is creating panic and harming others.

As I've said before this is one of those paradoxical moments where the virus itself is really not that bad compared to our modern medicine. But it's an absolute public health red alert. There are so many pieces beyond the virus that I have no idea how officials make their decisions. Everything's stuck together and that seems to be what @sparkuri sees quite clearly in his worldly wisdom about downstream effects. I admit I do not. But I do understand the science that is being developed here and what is occurring And how much of the threat the virus actually is. And the great majority of us should realize that the biggest threat is figuring out how to wash your hands and not hang out in groups...


... This all changes that this virus sticks around in the fall and there's no herd immunity and no vaccine. :-X

Short of the percents still getting fine tuned to a final number (we have tight ranges now and the above percents still are in those ranges, so not terrible far off) all of the public data I was given and feeding back here remains pretty accurate.

I'm not sure why Feb, March, April, May, most of June still has you grinding an axe about limited Chinese data from January. WHO themselves had revised to 1% global as per my post by a month later.

 

[Sheepdog]

sweeps?
how does that work?
where do you live?

They deploy a shitload of health workers and go knocking on everyone's door and try to test the whole suburb in places where they think there is community transmission.

Wuhan did 10 million in less than 3 weeks, so mass testing can be done.

 

[BeardOfKnowledge]

January is not February. As I just said since January. That was January and a month later things were much clearer.
I typed straight from a conference on the subject in February.


March continued...






Short of the percents still getting fine tuned to a final number (we have tight ranges now and the above percents still are in those ranges, so not terrible far off) all of the public data I was given and feeding back here remains pretty accurate.

I'm not sure why Feb, March, April, May, most of June still has you grinding an axe about limited Chinese data from January. WHO themselves had revised to 1% global as per my post by a month later.

You said "No one has been concerned about 3% since January. I was pointing out that in January no one was concerned at all.