General Corona virus updates

[member 3289]

It will definitely lead to a sellers market if we aren't already there. When people can't afford to build new they look at existing homes closer to their price range.

Lumber usually represents about 20% of the cost of a new home. So with this market being up 50% (which is still rising), what might have been a $320,000 home is now going to cost the buyer $416,000.

I can't wait until the $600 federal unemployment assistance is renewed. I'm gonna laugh so hard

 

[Hauler]

I can't wait until the $600 federal unemployment assistance is renewed. I'm gonna laugh so hard

Ok Gayboi

 

[Deleted member 1]

Lumber usually represents about 20% of the cost of a new home. So with this market being up 50% (which is still rising), what might have been a $320,000 home is now going to cost the buyer $416,000.

You said some lumber is up 100% above so I'm going to assume you mean that ...12->25


320 *.2 = 64,000 in lumber cost. = 256 in non lumber cost

Now you'd have an extra 64k in lumber cost = 320k home is 384k.

Wheres 416?

 

[Hauler]

You said some lumber is up 100% above so I'm going to assume you mean that ...12->25


320 *.2 = 64,000 in lumber cost. = 256 in non lumber cost

Now you'd have an extra 64k in lumber cost = 320k home is 384k.

Your math is correct. I'm too fucking pissed to add correctly. (I added it to the original 320k)

But since it's so insignificant, shoot me a DM and I'll let you know where to send that 64k. ?

 

[Deleted member 1]

@Hauler thoughts on your house buying suggestion...

You can easily get a mortgage rate at 2.75 (2.375 is available) which is 1%+ lower in APR than 6 months ago.
320k home = 20% down = 256k mortgage
256k saving 1% a year x 30 years = 2560 a year saved to buy a house now over 6 months ago...and that's ignoring compounding interest which is even higher savings.
2560 a year saved over 30 years = 76,800 saved in interest right now.

Even if you go up 64k (lumber doubled in price on same house) you save that in the interest rate reduction.
If you were going to buy a house 6 months ago, its just as good to buy one now in general.

 

[Hauler]

@Hauler thoughts on your house buying suggestion...

You can easily get a mortgage rate at 2.75 (2.375 is available) which is 1%+ lower in APR than 6 months ago.
320k home = 20% down = 256k mortgage
256k saving 1% a year x 30 years = 2560 a year saved to buy a house now over 6 months ago...and that's ignoring compounding interest which is even higher savings.
2560 a year saved over 30 years = 76,800 saved in interest right now.

Even if you go up 64k (lumber doubled in price on same house) you save that in the interest rate reduction.
If you were going to buy a house 6 months ago, its just as good to buy one now in general.

No matter how you slice it, 64k is 64k.
What you are saving on interest rates you are spending on added costs.

 

[ThatOneDude]

@Hauler thoughts on your house buying suggestion...

You can easily get a mortgage rate at 2.75 (2.375 is available) which is 1%+ lower in APR than 6 months ago.
320k home = 20% down = 256k mortgage
256k saving 1% a year x 30 years = 2560 a year saved to buy a house now over 6 months ago...and that's ignoring compounding interest which is even higher savings.
2560 a year saved over 30 years = 76,800 saved in interest right now.

Even if you go up 64k (lumber doubled in price on same house) you save that in the interest rate reduction.
If you were going to buy a house 6 months ago, its just as good to buy one now in general.

2.75% is a fucking awesome interest rate.



I would know.

 

[Hauler]

2.75% is a fucking awesome interest rate.



I would know.

That rate is only available via the yacht drive-through window at the bank on the beach.




I thought I was doing good when I got it at 3.25 - but then they went even lower. Oh well - timing is everything.

 

[ThatOneDude]

That rate is only available via the yacht drive-through window at the bank on the beach.




I thought I was doing good when I got it at 3.25 - but then they went even lower. Oh well - timing is everything.

We did do the closing on our boat.....was awesome

 

[Deleted member 1]

No matter how you slice it, 64k is 64k.
What you are saving on interest rates you are spending on added costs.

I agree. I am just mathing out the recommendation to not buy a house right now. Especially since the market is hot and people are buying like crazy.

As interest rates go down, buyers that can afford the same amount out compete each other on higher prices since they have more to spend with the same monthly cash flow.
Sellers are probably losing out on new home builds right now, but buyers are likely buying the same house they would 6 months ago. They just aren't getting a bigger house with those cheap interest rates and the seller isn't getting more profit with those interest rates.

Used home sells are probably making bank though. Selling old lumber for new lumber price delta.

 

[ThatOneDude]

I agree. I am just mathing out the recommendation to not buy a house right now. Especially since the market is hot and people are buying like crazy.

As interest rates go down, buyers that can afford the same amount out compete each other on higher prices since they have more to spend with the same monthly cash flow.
Sellers are probably losing out on new home builds right now, but buyers are likely buying the same house they would 6 months ago. They just aren't getting a bigger house with those cheap interest rates and the seller isn't getting more profit with those interest rates.

Used home sells are probably making bank though. Selling old lumber for new lumber price delta.

You got any lots open near you? Lets be neighbors.

 

[Hauler]

I agree. I am just mathing out the recommendation to not buy a house right now. Especially since the market is hot and people are buying like crazy.

As interest rates go down, buyers that can afford the same amount out compete each other on higher prices since they have more to spend with the same monthly cash flow.
Sellers are probably losing out on new home builds right now, but buyers are likely buying the same house they would 6 months ago. They just aren't getting a bigger house with those cheap interest rates and the seller isn't getting more profit with those interest rates.

Used home sells are probably making bank though. Selling old lumber for new lumber price delta.

I didn't say don't buy a house right now.
I said don't build new.

Agreed. If a seller's market doesn't already exist, it will soon. As you said, the cost variance of old wood vs new wood is substantial, which is what I was trying to point out before you decided to put down your mimosa and pick up your TI calculator.

 

[Deleted member 1]

I didn't say don't buy a house right now.

Public Address for the forum: If you are looking to buy a house, now is not the time.

 

[Hauler]

NEW house was implied since I was talking about construction materials.

I edited it.

Enjoying yourself?

 

[Hauler]

I'm so tempted to report @Splinty for picking on me.

 

[Deleted member 1]

Yale can suck my fucking dick with that bullshit.

How Do Unemployment Benefits Relate to Job Search Behavior? - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

www.chicagofed.org

These results challenge the notion that collecting unemployment benefits reduces job search. Those collecting UI benefits actually search the hardest among all the groups we studied. If anything, search effort declines once individuals exhaust their benefits. Furthermore, individuals collecting benefits tend to receive better job offers than those who are not collecting benefits. In contrast, those who exhaust their benefits both receive and are willing to accept lower-paying job offers, suggesting that UI benefit exhaustion may have detrimental effects on employment outcomes.

 

[Hauler]

How Do Unemployment Benefits Relate to Job Search Behavior? - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

www.chicagofed.org

Now you're just trying to make me have an aneurysm like Biden.

reported

 

[Deleted member 1]

US Unemployment Insurance Replacement Rates During the Pandemic | BFI

We use micro data on earnings together with the details of each state’s unemployment insurance (UI) system to compute the distribution of UI benefits after the uniform $600 Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) supplement implemented by the CARES Act. We find that between April and...

bfi.uchicago.edu

The current expanded UI system enacted under CARES implies high replacement rates well over 100% for most workers.
High replacement rates can provide crucial liquidity necessary for households to smooth consumption during this
unprecedented period of economic dislocation. Notably, replacement rates under the CARES Act are highest for the
unemployed with the lowest prior earnings who are likely most vulnerable. At the same time, replacement rates over 100%
create distributional issues and may hamper e

@Hauler !!!

 

[Sheepdog]

Yale can suck my fucking dick with that bullshit.

I just got off the phone with a guy in Mansfield, Ohio who is trying to hire 7 guys to get to his normal level of 30 employees. I was calling him about teaming up on a job I have going on, but we eventually started talking about staffing because he doesn't know if he can help me out because he can't find workers.

Lumber mills haven't been able to staff up and it is causing a HUGE run on lumber pricing right now. Don't believe me? Go to your local Home Depot or Lowes and take a walk down the treated aisle. Pickings are likely pretty slim.

Pricing is going through the roof. In April you could buy 1/2" OSB at around $12 a sheet retail. Now you're looking at $20 to $25, depending on how closely the store is keeping an eye on the market.

The ramifications are already being felt, and if America doesn't get back to work and stop this fucking nonsense it's only going to get worse.

Agreed. The US needs to cut unemployment benefits to 0, end all stimulus, go into immediate austerity and focus on completely wiping out the debt.

 

[Deleted member 1]

Given the current pace this seems possible

300,000 Deaths By December? 9 Takeaways From The Newest COVID-19 Projections

What's driving this death toll? Could anything improve the outlook? How reliable are these predictions anyway? We get into the weeds.

www.npr.org

 

[Deleted member 1]

Agreed. The US needs to cut unemployment benefits to 0, end all stimulus, go into immediate austerity and focus on completely wiping out the debt.

I love gyros

 

[Sheepdog]

I love gyros

 

[MMAHAWK]

View: https://twitter.com/ap/status/1291762365688614912?s=21

 

[Hauler]

US Unemployment Insurance Replacement Rates During the Pandemic | BFI

We use micro data on earnings together with the details of each state’s unemployment insurance (UI) system to compute the distribution of UI benefits after the uniform $600 Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) supplement implemented by the CARES Act. We find that between April and...

bfi.uchicago.edu

@Hauler !!!

Another scheduled interview.
Another no-show.

So fucking tired of this shit. Applicants are using the digital confirmation of the interview as proof of job search, and if you skip the job interview you don't have to worry about being hired. I'm easily at 20+ no-shows for interviews during Covid.

 

[Deleted member 1]

Another scheduled interview.
Another no-show.

So fucking tired of this shit. Applicants are using the digital confirmation of the interview as proof of job search, and if you skip the job interview you don't have to worry about being hired. I'm easily at 20+ no-shows for interviews during Covid.

did you read that paper?
It describes the population effects but has some more heterogeneous data where they advise some employees should have a taper off of their amount as they work more and depending on the area.
It PARTLY supports your observations, even if they don't apply to the whole.