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Filthy

Iowa Wrestling Champion
Jun 28, 2016
27,507
29,834
Excess deaths means deaths over an expected amount that's it. People gleaning any more information from the stat than that ie, "It must have been covid!" is disingenuous.
do you have an explanation for something else that killed the 4M people in India last year?

"lockdowns"?
 

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
60,547
56,268
do you have an explanation for something else that killed the 4M people in India last year?
I don't need to. I'm not the one making the claim. I'm under the impression that you're suggesting it could only have been covid. I'm pointing out that it could have been any combination of anything else. Even if for the sake of argument I say "You're right it was all covid.", which at best is a very dubious claim, that 4 million number still isn't something anyone is going to lose sleep over when India is looked at objectively.
 

Filthy

Iowa Wrestling Champion
Jun 28, 2016
27,507
29,834
I don't need to. I'm not the one making the claim. I'm under the impression that you're suggesting it could only have been covid. I'm pointing out that it could have been any combination of anything else. Even if for the sake of argument I say "You're right it was all covid.", which at best is a very dubious claim, that 4 million number still isn't something anyone is going to lose sleep over when India is looked at objectively.
i'm making a claim regarding the order of magnitude of the impact.

400k is not the same as 4M.
Millions of lives matter.
 

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
60,547
56,268
i'm making a claim regarding the order of magnitude of the impact.

400k is not the same as 4M.
Millions of lives matter.
I didn't say millions of lives didn't matter, I didn't say 400k is the same as 4M. I said excess deaths =/= covid deaths.
 

Filthy

Iowa Wrestling Champion
Jun 28, 2016
27,507
29,834
I didn't say millions of lives didn't matter, I didn't say 400k is the same as 4M. I said excess deaths =/= covid deaths.
thanks, Cpt. Obvious. :)

Excess mortality is a way to estimate the accuracy of the official number, and to determine the severity of the impact - as long as "order of magnitude" is accurate enough.
 

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
60,547
56,268
Excess mortality is a way to estimate the accuracy of the official number
No, it isn't.

to determine the severity of the impact
Yes, it would be good for that.

But those need to be treated as separate things otherwise you get meaningless data. Which is what the province is doing here. Excess deaths are also generally measured on "averages" which can also call into question the accuracy.
 
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Filthy

Iowa Wrestling Champion
Jun 28, 2016
27,507
29,834
No, it isn't.
absolutely is. if it's not, you have to explain what moved the trendline. It's how running averages with high confidence are built. "Excess Mortality" is exactly that - it measures deviations from an average that is historically very predictive.

Yes, it would be good for that.

But those need to be treated as separate things otherwise you get meaningless data. Which is what the province is doing here. Excess deaths are also generally measured on "averages" which can also call into question the accuracy.
show me the inaccurate trend in excess mortality. That's the whole issue - you have to explain WHY the number is higher...where did all the excess deaths come from? If 5k people commit suicide every year, don't claim "increase suicides" as where the extra 25k deaths originated.

But also consider that 25k is a manageable increase in a nation where >250k people die every year.
 

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
60,547
56,268
absolutely is. if it's not, you have to explain what moved the trendline. It's how running averages with high confidence are built. "Excess Mortality" is exactly that - it measures deviations from an average that is historically very predictive.



show me the inaccurate trend in excess mortality. That's the whole issue - you have to explain WHY the number is higher...where did all the excess deaths come from? If 5k people commit suicide every year, don't claim "increase suicides" as where the extra 25k deaths originated.

But also consider that 25k is a manageable increase in a nation where >250k people die every year.
Here's what the province is saying:
Excess all-cause mortality will include deaths that are the result of infection with SARS-CoV-2 (recognized and unrecognized), as well as deaths that have been indirectly influenced by the pandemic, including those caused by delayed or deferred access to medical care and by worsening mental health and substance use.
Note the wording, it's extremely relevant.
 

Rambo John J

Eats things that would make a Billy Goat Puke
First 100
Jan 17, 2015
71,542
71,466
Fear = Stress

Stress Kills



That should be factored in on any official numbers.



Can we place our trust in any of the "official numbers"? From where I am sitting it appears that the octopus of global control has reached it's tentacles into every single facet of our reality.



Just food for thought.
 

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
60,547
56,268
Fear = Stress

Stress Kills



That should be factored in on any official numbers.
It shows in excess deaths. It should not be recorded in official covid numbers. It's an outcome of irresponsible governance, it's not an outcome of the virus.
 

Rambo John J

Eats things that would make a Billy Goat Puke
First 100
Jan 17, 2015
71,542
71,466
It shows in excess deaths. It should not be recorded in official covid numbers. It's an outcome of irresponsible governance, it's not an outcome of the virus.
Yes

I just know people who have spiraled into poor health from the threat of covid.
Never caught it and zero loved ones affected by it.

Simply scared and unhealthy from the possibility of it.


Multiply that by hundreds of millions or a billion and you are gonna have some big numbers.
 

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
60,547
56,268
I just know people who have spiraled into poor health from the threat of covid.
Never caught it and zero loved ones affected by it.
Same here.

I'm far from a covid denier, but I always try to look at thing from the perspective of "I'd rather be optimistic than wrong, than pessimistic and right" It's very odd to see people seemingly hoping for the worst possible outcome so they can be right. Granted we just sat through 4 years of it politically, so I guess that's just the baseline for a lot of folks.
 

sparkuri

Pulse On The Finger Of The Community
First 100
Jan 16, 2015
34,422
46,563
No worries brotha. We can discuss it anytime. Evenings are best for me.

I'm up for it as long as its friendly and doesn't devolve into anger and name calling.

Religion and History are not emotionally charged for me so I don't like those kinda
discussions. I just enjoy the scholarship of Anthropology and Linguistics

I have a thread on History here General - History, Anthropology & Language Bitches

We can discuss it there so as not to gum up this thread.

Couple things...

"Heiroglyphs" are a Greek translation. The language is called Mdw Ntr
and was in use among the Remetch (people of the Two Lands, Upper and Lower Kemet/Egypt)
1000s of years before Greek.

Psalms and dates of texts in the Bible we can discuss there as well.

As far as I'm aware the Bible was written primarily in the languages of Hebrew, Aramaic, and Koine Greek

Hebrew is an Afro-Asiatic language and a very young language compartive to other
Afro Asiatic languages including Mdw what we commonly know as "Heiroglyphs"
PM's are best for this.
Great attitude btw.
 

Filthy

Iowa Wrestling Champion
Jun 28, 2016
27,507
29,834
Then it's not really something you can attribute to covid's deadliness.
they're not. They're counting the deaths to which COVID was a primary contributor. All the "normal/non-COVID" deaths for this year are accounted in the average of the previous 5 years.
 

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
60,547
56,268
they're not. They're counting the deaths to which COVID was a primary contributor.
They're also counting things where covid was an "indirect" contributor as per that paragraph I pulled from the provincial covid table's webpage on excess deaths. Excess deaths are a marketing tool, I'm very surprised that you don't recognize that.