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BeardOfKnowledge (Admin) said:
It's too bad that before Christmas isn't Christmas though, isn't it.
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Lmao ?


Even if you weren't changing what they said, it would still be a hilariously pedantic post in always trying to hold that the experts don't know what they are talking about and being right.

Take the L.


Your post...
Without further intervention, the science table’s modelling suggests Ontario is poised to see more than 10,000 new daily cases by Christmas. Even with a circuit breaker, the science table said the daily case count could approach record levels by New Year’s Day.
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By Christmas. Not before.

Now don't pull the Bill Clinton here and say it depends on the definition of "by".

They didn't say that cases will be greater than 10,000 by Christmas. They said they could be without further intervention. And it was a great estimate. And in fact, it was 100% right if one is so concrete in their thinking that 95% of an estimated ceiling means false claims by the experts.
 
BeardOfKnowledge

BeardOfKnowledge

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Jul 22, 2015
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Splinty said:
Lmao ?


Even if you weren't changing what they said, it would still be a hilariously pedantic post in always trying to hold that the experts don't know what they are talking about and being right.

Take the L.


Your post...


By Christmas. Not before.

Now don't pull the Bill Clinton here and say it depends on the definition of "by".

They didn't say that cases will be greater than 10,000 by Christmas. They said they could be without further intervention. And it was a great estimate. And in fact, it was 100% right if one is so concrete in their thinking that 95% of an estimated ceiling means false claims by the experts.
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By Christmas is not on Christmas. There's a reason the article title stated "before Christmas".

This is the first time that their estimate hasn't been half of the actual number. You're giving them way, way too much credit. I even acknowledged that at least this time they were close. Take the "L" and move on, doc.
 
BeardOfKnowledge

BeardOfKnowledge

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Jul 22, 2015
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Fingers said:
At some point even the most placid people will just ignore the nonsense.
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I hope you're right, but I don't like what I'm seeing. We just got told that a single symptom by anyone in a household means that the entire household has to quarantine for 10 days, and don't bother going for a test. We don't have enough.
 
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BeardOfKnowledge (Admin) said:
By Christmas is not on Christmas.
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There it is.



When you have milk that says use by "12/25/2021" you take that has don't use it on that day?
You're tossing your food a day early than us normies.



BeardOfKnowledge (Admin) said:
There's a reason the article title stated "before Christmas".
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Yes because of this...

General - Corona virus updates

and yet another missed prediction. I mean at least they were close this time around, but still. "Breaking records on consecutive days." would have been more than enough. Now they're just wrong, again, ffs...
themmacommunity.com themmacommunity.com
It seems pretty obvious that there was a round table going on and someone said "we could see 10,000" without intervention as part of a larger conversation. And you have.
They also state that with big intervention daily case counts could still hit record levels by new years. Which they already have.

You're taking a headline, worrying about 95% not being 100% and then ignoring that it's a distilled article not quotes with an attention grabbing headline.
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Media gonna media. But that doesn't really excuse your locking in so hard on this fallacy.
 
FINGERS

FINGERS

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BeardOfKnowledge (Admin) said:
I hope you're right, but I don't like what I'm seeing. We just got told that a single symptom by anyone in a household means that the entire household has to quarantine for 10 days, and don't bother going for a test. We don't have enough.
Click to expand...

They've realised here that 10 days cannot fly. It means people with government jobs. Staff jobs will just take the knee and not go in. So they've made it 7 days.

Still. Means doctors, nurses, ambulance drivers, truckers, people who work in supermarkets are out of the game for a week. Even though they don't have covid...

At some point the penny had to drop. This is now endemic. Not pandemic and should be treated as such. But the politicians and experts still want the power of control.

Its addictive. We have to wean them now.
 
D

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Fingers said:
The pandemic is over. It’s over.

When will be allowed to move on?
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You were saying that right before we had the most overruns and deaths ever here in Texas

Where we are in the pandemic is heterogenous due to resources, vaccination, and previous waves with the recovered.

Even with omicron being relatively low risk to your country that has high vaccination and previous infection rate, there's a risk that you could overrun your resources once. A low hospitalization rate and very rapid infection rate could still do it. So no, not definitely over. But barring a more severe variant (unlikely) this has the potential to be the last wave that results in essentially 100% exposure and endemic disease for most of the world.
 
FINGERS

FINGERS

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Splinty said:
You were saying that right before we had the most overruns and deaths ever here in Texas

Where we are in the pandemic is heterogenous due to resources, vaccination, and previous waves with the recovered.

Even with omicron being relatively low risk to your country that has high vaccination and previous infection rate, there's a risk that you could overrun your resources once. A low hospitalization rate and very rapid infection rate could still do it. So no, not definitely over. But barring a more severe variant (unlikely) this has the potential to be the last wave that results in essentially 100% exposure and endemic disease for most of the world.
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i get that more cases with a low percentage of hospitalisation but with more cases means the same. But as I said 2 weeks ago this version is a ‘good’ thing.

it’s not over, over but we need to scale down the terror. De escalate the fear.

I did a piece for the Ten o clock news with someone called Hugh Pym the other day. I had to explain that people listen to him. They may live alone and have no other point of reference. I made him change his pay off to balance out the facts. We now have vaccine’s, we have better drugs to treat the sick.
It turns out that over 80% of omicron patients we actually admitted had different ailments but were only diagnosed with covid after admission. Covid wasn’t the reason for their stay.

it’s time to ratchet down the fear.

Im talking about the uk. I have no idea where you are at this stage but it can’t be that much different.

I have seen, been told Some stats that now say the average of death of covid in this country is 82. The average of death normally here is 80.

I can’t back that up because the government won’t release the data. But that’s what I’ve been told.
 
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Fingers said:
i get that more cases with a low percentage of hospitalisation but with more cases means the same. But as I said 2 weeks ago this version is a ‘good’ thing.
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It probably is. Right now it appears to be best case scenario but its REALLY early data that doesn't support the absolutes you're making. I get the frustration but its just not accurate. After the new year hopefully it might very well be. It'll just depend on how fast omicron spreads and if it matches the models. If it does, then we might be looking at done with this for real, for real in a month or three.

Fingers said:
it’s not over, over but we need to scale down the terror. De escalate the fear.
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I've been trying to do that since sparkuri @sparkuri was price gouging N95s in 2020. It's always been a big societal threat with low individual risk to most of us. The panic, especially the medias obsession with cases and death counters, has real harm.

Fingers said:
I did a piece for the Ten o clock news with someone called Hugh Pam the other day. I had to explain that people listen to him. They may live alone and have no other point of reference. I made him change his pay off to balance out the facts. We now have vaccine’s, we have better drugs to treat the sick.
It turns out that over 80% of omicron patients we actually admitted had different ailments but were only diagnosed with covid after admission. Covid wasn’t the reason for their stay.
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Well then why were you guys scaring everyone so much early on? It's just bred the counter voices to claim this is nothing which is equally not true.

Fingers said:
Im talking about the uk. I have no idea where you are at this stage but it can’t be that much different.
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I'm in Texas where the Pandemic never happened. Go to California and it's shutdown city.
Neither is really accurate to the evolving threat that has moved from personal injury to resource over runs once we have vaccine available but also variants that can be transmitted despite not hospitalizing the host.
 
BeardOfKnowledge

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
61,386
56,694
Splinty said:
There it is.



When you have milk that says use by "12/25/2021" you take that has don't use it on that day?
You're tossing your food a day early than us normies.






Yes because of this...

General - Corona virus updates

and yet another missed prediction. I mean at least they were close this time around, but still. "Breaking records on consecutive days." would have been more than enough. Now they're just wrong, again, ffs...
themmacommunity.com themmacommunity.com



Media gonna media. But that doesn't really excuse your locking in so hard on this fallacy.
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Okay, I'll tell you what. I'll concede that the media misreported. That still makes the experts 1-6 with their predictions. If your financial advisor had a record like that your yacht would be a 14 foot aluminum with a Johnson 9.9 and you wouldn't be able to afford Paige's Only Fans fees. You certainly wouldn't continue investing based on their advice.
 
D

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BeardOfKnowledge (Admin) said:
Okay, I'll tell you what. I'll concede that the media misreported. That still makes the experts 1-6 with their predictions. If your financial advisor had a record like that your yacht would be a 14 foot aluminum with a Johnson 9.9 and you wouldn't be able to afford Paige's Only Fans fees. You certainly wouldn't continue investing based on their advice.
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I haven't been following anything really going on in Canada and especially not something as local as Ontario.

I'm mostly giving you shit because I was curious how far they missed the mark and was surprised that they were nearly right and you were still saucy about it.

And quite frankly I take what most of you guys post in here about the experts as must being true. I don't watch the news like the average Joe does and I'm way too busy and to absorbed at the clinical level to get my recommendations from anywhere other than black and white text that might not have the same tone as interviews or whatever.

I will say that I've been surprised quite a few times by video clips posted in this thread. Often when I've investigated them, they've been out of context to create a strawman. Strawman. But other times the recommendations by local leaders seem really behind the curve on data changes. Talking about recommendations based on waiting caseloads or vaccination changes or whatever and they are acting like it's three or four months before.
 
FINGERS

FINGERS

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Splinty said:
It probably is. Right now it appears to be best case scenario but its REALLY early data that doesn't support the absolutes you're making. I get the frustration but its just not accurate. After the new year hopefully it might very well be. It'll just depend on how fast omicron spreads and if it matches the models. If it does, then we might be looking at done with this for real, for real in a month or three.



I've been trying to do that since sparkuri @sparkuri was price gouging N95s in 2020. It's always been a big societal threat with low individual risk to most of us. The panic, especially the medias obsession with cases and death counters, has real harm.



Well then why were you guys scaring everyone so much early on? It's just bred the counter voices to claim this is nothing which is equally not true.



I'm in Texas where the Pandemic never happened. Go to California and it's shutdown city.
Neither is really accurate to the evolving threat that has moved from personal injury to resource over runs once we have vaccine available but also variants that can be transmitted despite not hospitalizing the host.
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im obviously not as learned as you in medical matters but I, as a lay person can see the real threat has gone away..

we are now in a situation where other treatable illnesses are being passed over to treat something that is only mortal to someone who has lived for 80 years.

it’s nuts.
 
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Fingers said:
im obviously not as learned as you in medical matters but I, as a lay person can see the real threat has gone away..

we are now in a situation where other treatable illnesses are being passed over to treat something that is only mortal to someone who has lived for 80 years.

it’s nuts.
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What's the real threat? As far as I can tell, ever since vaccination has been broadly available, the real threat is resource overruns. That's the shared decision-making model. Cautious optimism. You could still resource overrun right now.... What's the antibody positive rate for omicron in the UK? You don't know and neither do I. Last time we thought we were mostly done with a Wuhan strain there was all the data that only about 10% of the UK have been exposed. Everybody thought most of society would have been exposed and we were just about done and then it turns out that almost nobody had been.


We thought the real threat was over here after vaccination and then boom delta changed things. We were getting rid of mask and opening back up. Then we thought Delta surges were done and everybody had called it in September of this year was about the worst. It's been the entire pandemic.



Fingers said:
we are now in a situation where other treatable illnesses are being passed over to treat something that is only mortal to someone who has lived for 80 years.
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That's been the case since 2020. And I think it was probably only warranted for the first three months because we had no idea what we were doing. Nobody really_the exact fatality rate or if we were going to find certain populations that were much higher risk. Remember all the stuff about wondering a certain blood types, etc. We didn't know how to stratify patients. And would that during 2020 and even 2021 there are thousands and thousands of missed cancers. What you're describing has been going on for 2 years now and it's part of the real harm of hyperfocus on this disease at the expense of other public health.

But just because you want it to be over, and there's light at the end of the tunnel that we might actually be very soon, you might still be looking at one more wave and nobody can really tell you if it's going to happen or not right now because the data is very preliminary
 
FINGERS

FINGERS

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Splinty said:
What's the real threat? As far as I can tell, ever since vaccination has been broadly available, the real threat is resource overruns. That's the shared decision-making model. Cautious optimism. You could still resource overrun right now.... What's the antibody positive rate for omicron in the UK? You don't know and neither do I. Last time we thought we were mostly done with a Wuhan strain there was all the data that only about 10% of the UK have been exposed. Everybody thought most of society would have been exposed and we were just about done and then it turns out that almost nobody had been.


We thought the real threat was over here after vaccination and then boom delta changed things. We were getting rid of mask and opening back up. Then we thought Delta surges were done and everybody had called it in September of this year was about the worst. It's been the entire pandemic.






That's been the case since 2020. And I think it was probably only warranted for the first three months because we had no idea what we were doing. Nobody really_the exact fatality rate or if we were going to find certain populations that were much higher risk. Remember all the stuff about wondering a certain blood types, etc. We didn't know how to stratify patients. And would that during 2020 and even 2021 there are thousands and thousands of missed cancers. What you're describing has been going on for 2 years now and it's part of the real harm of hyperfocus on this disease at the expense of other public health.

But just because you want it to be over, and there's light at the end of the tunnel that we might actually be very soon, you might still be looking at one more wave and nobody can really tell you if it's going to happen or not right now because the data is very preliminary
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Yeah. I'm calling it.

Its over.

Time to concentrate on other real world ailments that affect under 75 year olds.

And I'm being generous.

Its over.

I'm right.
 
BeardOfKnowledge

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
61,386
56,694
Splinty said:
I'm mostly giving you shit because I was curious how far they missed the mark and was surprised that they were nearly right and you were still saucy about it.
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I said in the first post that they were close this time.

Splinty said:
I haven't been following anything really going on in Canada and especially not something as local as Ontario.
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How can you not be following Ontario closely? What's the bigger priority? Ontario is an international hub of "Je ne c'est quoi" and Ontario alone had the GDP of 5/7 whatever California's is. That's a big dill!
 
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Fingers said:
Time to concentrate on other real world ailments that affect under 75 year olds.
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Coronavirus has been a top 10 killer across nearly every age group over the last year.

jamanetwork.com

Causes of Death Among Young Adults by Race and Ethnicity in Texas During the COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020

This cohort study examines mortality data from Texas, a racially and ethnically diverse state, to better understand excess mortality among adults aged 25 to 44 years during early months of the COVID-19 pandemic.
jamanetwork.com jamanetwork.com


Framing this has a disease that only kills 75+ is to show you don't know how to interpret stats.
In a world of relative risk ( the exact conversation you are raising by stating other diseases are also threats that need focus )covid19 remains one of the higher likely to hospitalize or kill almost all of us.


Young healthy people don't die from many disease. Covid isn't an exception to that's. It's still more dangerous than a lot of other things I would find or acutely screen.
 
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