My hot take on this is the one I mentioned three days ago?
The mind plays tricks...
But it's not so stupid. But them I'm stupid and Putin is insane.
Putin wants his land bridge to Crimea which costs Russia fortunes to water this arrid area and gives him his massive land grab. He offers Ukraine a peace treaty and a promise not to venture further.... If they promise not to join NATO.
Of course its insane. Of course Ukraine at this stage says no. But Putin is old now. The sanctions remain.
The deal is signed and Putin has to have a taster everytime he wants so much as a glass of water because everyone hates him.
Kiev survives. The folks that want to move over the river to western Ukraine do.
It gives him 'a golden bridge' . But one that is poisoned because of the sanctions. He can say to his people I won. But they suffer from not buying Netflix or seeing the latest Top Gear. Or seeing a rouble worth less than a cent. So the average Russian can't holiday in tenerife. Win win.
In 3 years time when the next Russian elections are....
Could work.
Or he could just say fuck it. And blow the world up. But the Chinese have a lot of leverage and they are not backing him.