General Russia Ukraine round 2 Price hike boogaloo

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M

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Sheepdog said:
That's been Russia's line since near the start of the war. They have pulled the 'I have the documents'. Almost certainly a lie. Otherwise it would have been smart to just let Ukraine invade first, as it would have taken a lot of heat off them.

But I'm not understanding how that relates to my post about Mearsheimer's article and the dipshit commenting on it though.
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You okay?
 
Sheepdog

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Nuk Soo Kow said:
The dipshit is obviously a troll account, surely you know this. I mention the video because I’ve seen “it’s NATOs fault” from many and here’s a Russia rep saying “we were gonna get attacked so we went first”. The interviewer is right, how can anybody take Russia seriously? Looking at Russia “negotiation” attempts I’m not convinced this is all thanks to NATO expansion.
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I know it was a random spaz, but that spaz speaks for a lot of people who have reacted to that article.

This stuff about the 'but Ruskies are lying' is, again, childish though. Of course they lied and are liars. Just like our own governments.

It's not 'all' about NATO expansion. But that is the strategic breaking point. Tug of war over Ukraine could have continued without it falling victim to a full-scale invasion.
 
M

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Sheepdog said:
I know it was a random spaz, but that spaz speaks for a lot of people who have reacted to that article.

This stuff about the 'but Ruskies are lying' is, again, childish though. Of course they lied and are liars. Just like our own governments.

It's not 'all' about NATO expansion. But that is the strategic breaking point. Tug of war over Ukraine could have continued without it falling victim to a full-scale invasion.
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Has Mariupol fallen to the Ruskies yet?

Fuckwit
 
M

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Sheepdog said:
I know it was a random spaz, but that spaz speaks for a lot of people who have reacted to that article.

This stuff about the 'but Ruskies are lying' is, again, childish though. Of course they lied and are liars. Just like our own governments.

It's not 'all' about NATO expansion. But that is the strategic breaking point. Tug of war over Ukraine could have continued without it falling victim to a full-scale invasion.
Click to expand...
My government never lies

How could you say such things about JT
 
Splinty

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Nuk Soo Kow said:
The dipshit is obviously a troll account, surely you know this. I mention the video because I’ve seen “it’s NATOs fault” from many and here’s a Russia rep saying “we were gonna get attacked so we went first”. The interviewer is right, how can anybody take Russia seriously? Looking at Russia “negotiation” attempts I’m not convinced this is all thanks to NATO expansion.
Click to expand...
Russia has a shit garbage economy and a shit garbage leadership. It's "war" has been done with threatening to freeze Q @Qat every few years, fucking around with asymmetric items like hacking and disinformation, and bullying old soviet countries to make sure they continue in the Russian sphere for trade and other geopolitical deals. Most would prefer that back and forth than a war with a large nuclear power. Russia attempted pipeline aspirations that were seen as a poison pill for NATO as you essentially couldn't sanction it without sanctioning allies.

In my opinion. the "west" has beat Russia a little too well on the things that would let Russia fight without a war. NATO expansion is a threat to Russia's own expansionist aims as a land power but that isn't really a threat to Russia sovereign status as they claim. But really the main area of threat from NATO is our missile shield that risks removing Russia's assured mutual destruction, could be offensive pretty quick, and by funneling too many defensive items that could become offensive to the front line of NATO countries even when we aren't stationing actual troops there. The old agreement of not putting bases on their border becomes a bit moot as technology advances to remove the need for bases from remote missile silos, etc. Piece by piece we've removed Russia's ability to "fight" either economically or in slow and steady escalation. They are left with few tools other than overreacting for lack of a better term.
So Russia's full of shit about Crimea's reasons, full of shit about genocide, full of shit about their protecting Ukrainians, full of shit about overexaggerating Ukraine nazis, full of shit about just all the shit they are slinging at the wall.

Russia fucking around in Ukraine is not a whole unlike us fucking around in Venezuela as for economic and geopolitical aspirations. Neither is particularly moral or unexpected. And our fucking around in Venezuela is equally a result of our shitty ability to simply make deals without the barrel of a gun. The US and Ukraine have created a circumventing of Russia's main economic tools for competing. There is of course a long sorted history of ethnic issues and empire issues on top of that. But beyond that we haven't given Russia an out, as backwards as they might seem, to compete and fight with something else. If Russia ties up border issues in Ukraine indefinitely they expect that at minimum it will stop collective defensive agreements like NATO from going forward. And they are right. More so Russia might be able to parlay the intervention into a nation building exercise but that seems unlikely given the war outcome to date. And finally such intervention puts their threats back to having teeth for the next country that NATO might want to incorporate making escalation on the table where everyone thought they were bluffing.

I'd still be happy to watch every invading Russia gets stomped and Putin lose his head. But Russia got beat until it had only bad options on the table.

The out here is probably a combination of letting Crimea/the east go to Russia, letting the remainder of Ukraine tilt farther west, making security pacts that are some combination of collective defense and also security Guarantees for Russia. Russia won't get the neutral Ukraine that it wants but might get half way there. Unfortunately Putin being a caricature of his own terrible self in the Western eyes will mean we aren't willing to do anything about the ABM treaty that has international ramifications beyond Russia. We should use this conflict as an opportunity to undo some of our predecessors globally unpopular moves like that.
 
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M

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Sheepdog said:
I never gave a timeline.

You still don't think it will fall?

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Apparently the Ukrainians have moved from defensive fighting to offensive attempts to re-take some of their land lost. I don't expect them to go after anything as far south as Mariupol, but it wouldn't completely surprise me either.

I also don't know if I believe that the Ukrainian troops inside the city are completely out of food. If a retard from Florida (me) can have 3 months' worth of provisions in case of a major hurricane, surely Azov and the other Mairupol defenders were prepared for a siege. They've had 8 years to prepare since they took the city back from "Donetsk rebels".
 
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Ukranian teenagers steal a Russian infantry fighting vehicle:

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
 
M

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Sheepdog said:
No, it's actual geopolitics as understood by one of the world's leading academics in the field, as opposed to how it is understood by a random spastic on twitter who thinks like a child.
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The field is bullshit doe

my degree is basically toilet paper
 
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conor mcgregor nut hugger said:
Apparently the Ukrainians have moved from defensive fighting to offensive attempts to re-take some of their land lost. I don't expect them to go after anything as far south as Mariupol, but it wouldn't completely surprise me either.

I also don't know if I believe that the Ukrainian troops inside the city are completely out of food. If a retard from Florida (me) can have 3 months' worth of provisions in case of a major hurricane, surely Azov and the other Mairupol defenders were prepared for a siege. They've had 8 years to prepare since they took the city back from "Donetsk rebels".
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Even in a land of armchair generals, including myself, your military illiteracy stands alone.

Nobody is saying they can't hold them off for a while, spaz. Nobody knows exactly how long.

But the idea that Mariupol won't fall is astoundingly stupid. Half of it already has.
 
M

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Sheepdog said:
Even in a land of armchair generals, including myself, your military illiteracy stands alone.

Nobody is saying they can't hold them off for a while, spaz. Nobody knows exactly how long.

But the idea that Mariupol won't fall is astoundingly stupid. Half of it already has.
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QFP
 
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Splinty said:
Russia has a shit garbage economy and a shit garbage leadership. It's "war" has been done with threatening to freeze Q @Qat every few years, fucking around with asymmetric items like hacking and disinformation, and bullying old soviet countries to make sure they continue in the Russian sphere for trade and other geopolitical deals. Most would prefer that back and forth than a war with a large nuclear power. Russia attempted pipeline aspirations that were seen as a poison pill for NATO as you essentially couldn't sanction it without sanctioning allies.

In my opinion. the "west" has beat Russia a little too well on the things that would let Russia fight without a war. NATO expansion is a threat to Russia's own expansionist aims as a land power but that isn't really a threat to Russia sovereign status as they claim. But really the main area of threat from NATO is our missile shield that risks removing Russia's assured mutual destruction, could be offensive pretty quick, and by funneling too many defensive items that could become offensive to the front line of NATO countries even when we aren't stationing actual troops there. The old agreement of not putting bases on their border becomes a bit moot as technology advances to remove the need for bases from remote missile silos, etc. Piece by piece we've removed Russia's ability to "fight" either economically or in slow and steady escalation. They are left with few tools other than overreacting for lack of a better term.
So Russia's full of shit about Crimea's reasons, full of shit about genocide, full of shit about their protecting Ukrainians, full of shit about overexaggerating Ukraine nazis, full of shit about just all the shit they are slinging at the wall.

Russia fucking around in Ukraine is not a whole unlike us fucking around in Venezuela as for economic and geopolitical aspirations. Neither is particularly moral or unexpected. And our fucking around in Venezuela is equally a result of our shitty ability to simply make deals without the barrel of a gun. The US and Ukraine have created a circumventing of Russia's main economic tools for competing. There is of course a long sorted history of ethnic issues and empire issues on top of that. But beyond that we haven't given Russia an out, as backwards as they might seem, to compete and fight with something else. If Russia ties up border issues in Ukraine indefinitely they expect that at minimum it will stop collective defensive agreements like NATO from going forward. And they are right. More so Russia might be able to parlay the intervention into a nation building exercise but that seems unlikely given the war outcome to date. And finally such intervention puts their threats back to having teeth for the next country that NATO might want to incorporate making escalation on the table where everyone thought they were bluffing.

I'd still be happy to watch every invading Russia gets stomped and Putin lose his head. But Russia got beat until it had only bad options on the table.

The out here is probably a combination of letting Crimea/the east go to Russia, letting the remainder of Ukraine tilt farther west, making security pacts that are some combination of collective defense and also security Guarantees for Russia. Russia won't get the neutral Ukraine that it wants but might get half way there. Unfortunately Putin being a caricature of his own terrible self in the Western eyes will mean we aren't willing to do anything about the ABM treaty that has international ramifications beyond Russia. We should use this conflict as an opportunity to undo some of our predecessors globally unpopular moves like that.
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View: https://thumbs.gfycat.com/FearlessGrandioseChuckwalla-mobile.mp4
 
La Paix

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Splinty said:
Russia has a shit garbage economy and a shit garbage leadership. It's "war" has been done with threatening to freeze Q @Qat every few years, fucking around with asymmetric items like hacking and disinformation, and bullying old soviet countries to make sure they continue in the Russian sphere for trade and other geopolitical deals. Most would prefer that back and forth than a war with a large nuclear power. Russia attempted pipeline aspirations that were seen as a poison pill for NATO as you essentially couldn't sanction it without sanctioning allies.

In my opinion. the "west" has beat Russia a little too well on the things that would let Russia fight without a war. NATO expansion is a threat to Russia's own expansionist aims as a land power but that isn't really a threat to Russia sovereign status as they claim. But really the main area of threat from NATO is our missile shield that risks removing Russia's assured mutual destruction, could be offensive pretty quick, and by funneling too many defensive items that could become offensive to the front line of NATO countries even when we aren't stationing actual troops there. The old agreement of not putting bases on their border becomes a bit moot as technology advances to remove the need for bases from remote missile silos, etc. Piece by piece we've removed Russia's ability to "fight" either economically or in slow and steady escalation. They are left with few tools other than overreacting for lack of a better term.
So Russia's full of shit about Crimea's reasons, full of shit about genocide, full of shit about their protecting Ukrainians, full of shit about overexaggerating Ukraine nazis, full of shit about just all the shit they are slinging at the wall.

Russia fucking around in Ukraine is not a whole unlike us fucking around in Venezuela as for economic and geopolitical aspirations. Neither is particularly moral or unexpected. And our fucking around in Venezuela is equally a result of our shitty ability to simply make deals without the barrel of a gun. The US and Ukraine have created a circumventing of Russia's main economic tools for competing. There is of course a long sorted history of ethnic issues and empire issues on top of that. But beyond that we haven't given Russia an out, as backwards as they might seem, to compete and fight with something else. If Russia ties up border issues in Ukraine indefinitely they expect that at minimum it will stop collective defensive agreements like NATO from going forward. And they are right. More so Russia might be able to parlay the intervention into a nation building exercise but that seems unlikely given the war outcome to date. And finally such intervention puts their threats back to having teeth for the next country that NATO might want to incorporate making escalation on the table where everyone thought they were bluffing.

I'd still be happy to watch every invading Russia gets stomped and Putin lose his head. But Russia got beat until it had only bad options on the table.

The out here is probably a combination of letting Crimea/the east go to Russia, letting the remainder of Ukraine tilt farther west, making security pacts that are some combination of collective defense and also security Guarantees for Russia. Russia won't get the neutral Ukraine that it wants but might get half way there. Unfortunately Putin being a caricature of his own terrible self in the Western eyes will mean we aren't willing to do anything about the ABM treaty that has international ramifications beyond Russia. We should use this conflict as an opportunity to undo some of our predecessors globally unpopular moves like that.
Click to expand...
This giving him an off ramp thing, you’ve said it before but with almost a month of becoming a self taught geopolitic professional I can’t see it working. I’m no war monger by any stretch but I think Putin needs to see for himself that he can’t win and he’ll pull himself out. He needs to get a bloody nose before he’ll back off IMO. Offering up some land will only pacify his current lust for power. If he gets eastern regions and Crimea that’ll settle things down temporarily but I can’t see him being satisfied with that. He’ll be back for more lunch money as soon as he thinks the west is too soft to fight back again.
 
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This guy is a legend. I've worked with him many, many times. He is most famous for being one of the first journos to expose Scientology. He has exposed FIFA too. I have heard him on the radio a few times recently. Once when he was incredibly pissed. He doesn't get many gigs on telly these days due to his drinking problem I felt bad for him but even drunk he spoke more sense with greater knowledge than 60% of journos out there. Those that do twitter it will be well you worth following him. As far as I know he is being a stringer out there, freelancing. He embedded himself way before the war started. Guy is old school and looks like he is just roaming around Ukraine looking for stories.


View: https://twitter.com/johnsweeneyroar/status/1506629556597366784?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1506629556597366784%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=
 
Splinty

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Nuk Soo Kow said:
This giving him an off ramp thing, you’ve said it before but with almost a month of becoming a self taught geopolitic professional I can’t see it working. I’m no war monger by any stretch but I think Putin needs to see for himself that he can’t win and he’ll pull himself out. He needs to get a bloody nose before he’ll back off IMO. Offering up some land will only pacify his current lust for power. If he gets eastern regions and Crimea that’ll settle things down temporarily but I can’t see him being satisfied with that. He’ll be back for more lunch money as soon as he thinks the west is too soft to fight back again.
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Negotiating from a point of strength is definitely a tactic in any of this. We will put him in as weak of a position as possible and then everything offered looks like a good out.

I only mentioned Crimea and the East because their disputed statuses really only benefit Russia. Without Russian invasion Crimea would become an autonomous region that is de facto a piece of Russia if not eventual full secession.

A path forward for Ukraine might be cutting the dead weight that gives Russia leverage. That's all I'm saying. Not that giving that up would be a good point of stopping Russias aspirations
 
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