I mean... yeah... that is a terrible fucking stadium.
Sports NFL 2024-25 Official Thread
- Thread starter NotBanjaxo
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35% change of success going for it, which in reality is probably a hell of a lot less than that with Daniel Jones as your QB and the rush the cowboys front can put on you.
I can almost with a certainty guarantee that they would have been stuffed and gotten zero poitns. Daboll probably knew that as well.
Analytics will tell you a probably of success based on stats, and not on actual sports and looking whats out on the field lol
The quality of QB/Offense/Defense is taken in as a factor with his bot.
I don't buy it. Do you have confidence in Daniel Jones going for it on a 4th and 3 with potentially the game on the line? I certainly don't
Yeah when it's Dallas's defense. That and the fact they were good enough to get to the 3 to start with.
The moment is just always too big for some players, regardless of what analytics say
But Dallas's defense kept them out of the endzone all game. No reason to believe it would be different on a 4th and 3 imo
Granted, if the refs weren't completely fucking retarded ont he first drive, the GIants chances of getting it in the endzone would have been pretty good, if they hadn't got penalized mistakenly for a facemask that should have been called on the cowboys
30 yard swing that resulted in a FG, instead of knocking on the door of the endzone.
You are missing the point. Dallas kept them out of the endzone sure but that's also because they elected to not try and get in the endzone when they should have. Giants willingly made the choice to not attempt it. Dallas does not get credit for a choice the Giants made.But Dallas's defense kept them out of the endzone all game. No reason to believe it would be different on a 4th and 3 imo
Granted, if the refs weren't completely fucking retarded ont he first drive, the GIants chances of getting it in the endzone would have been pretty good, if they hadn't got penalized mistakenly for a facemask that should have been called on the cowboys
Pretty sure the giants were trying to get int he endzone the entire game.
Im not a betting man, because i think gamblers are degenerates, but if i was, i would bet on the Giants getting stuffed trying to go for it.
Some things are just too predictable.
To get back to the point; the Giants elected to "just take the pts" like Anti-analytics people say they should. That choice was the wrong choice and it helped lead to them losing.
Anti-analytics crowds make arguments like "just take the pts" because they are making the argument that it leads to wins. In this case it didnt. Always going for it =/= always equal wins. Analytics understands this because they will also argue that you should just take the pts sometimes. Just take the pts =/= always equal wins. Anti-analytics does NOT understand this.
Anti-analytics crowds make arguments like "just take the pts" because they are making the argument that it leads to wins. In this case it didnt. Always going for it =/= always equal wins. Analytics understands this because they will also argue that you should just take the pts sometimes. Just take the pts =/= always equal wins. Anti-analytics does NOT understand this.
I don't always say just take the poitns.
I say, just take the points when you are going for it on 4th down in the first quarter in a 0-0 game. Or when the situation doesn't require you to NEED to go for it.
Or when you are up 7-0, go for it, fail...then the other team goes down the field and ties the game, when you would have been still in the lead if you had done the smart thing.
Brandon Staley could write a book on how to fail using this approach
I say, just take the points when you are going for it on 4th down in the first quarter in a 0-0 game. Or when the situation doesn't require you to NEED to go for it.
Or when you are up 7-0, go for it, fail...then the other team goes down the field and ties the game, when you would have been still in the lead if you had done the smart thing.
Brandon Staley could write a book on how to fail using this approach
They didn't attempt to get in the endzone when it was the most important for them to do so uptil that moment in the game. That is the issue.
That is an argument against Staley. He often went against what a few models said he should do.
He went for it when models said not to. Then he kicked FGs when models said he should go for it. Thats not analytics fault. That's a coaching issue.
Even so, they still had the opportunity to win on the final drive, but couldn't execute....whjich is why i seriously doubt they would have made it on 4th and 3....and apparently neither did Daboll
I like analytics when it's used as an enhancement to make sports-based decisions.
Not when coaches make sports an enhancement to make spreadsheet-based decisions.
There is a difference.
Baseball has gone too far in one direction. A lot of football coaches do as well
For example, taking a pitcher out in the 7th inning who is dealing a no hitter, because he has hit an arbitrary number of pitches that your spreadsheet says pitchers shouldn't cross.
Not when coaches make sports an enhancement to make spreadsheet-based decisions.
There is a difference.
Baseball has gone too far in one direction. A lot of football coaches do as well
For example, taking a pitcher out in the 7th inning who is dealing a no hitter, because he has hit an arbitrary number of pitches that your spreadsheet says pitchers shouldn't cross.
I think that is the issue in this situation.
It was obvious to everyone watching that the Giants were never going to win off just field goals in that game. The blame goes 100% on Daboll for not taking steps to win.
Ill concede that point, but i also think Daboll had no faith in Daniel Jones...and why would he?
He's never displayed any propensity for being clutch
Turning the ball over with zero points is still worse than kicking a field goal, which is worse than scoring a TD.
He's never displayed any propensity for being clutch
Turning the ball over with zero points is still worse than kicking a field goal, which is worse than scoring a TD.
If they went for it and scored the rest of the game is played differently. If they went for it and failed the rest of the game would have played differently. That's why we are talking about the moment itself.
If Daboll has not faith in him to that degree than DJ should not be playing at all in that moment.
Just go for it VS Just take the pts debates are always under the assumption that you are trying to win the game.
Analytics is not and has never been about what a spreadsheet says. It's always based off football knowledge with your team and past performances.
I can't speak about what Baseball does as I don't follow the sport though.
it's essentially a collection of statistics, IE a spreadsheet, that is used to try to predict outcomes and patterns.
Calling it a spreadsheet is being facetious, but that's essentially what it is.
It boils sports down to a math equation in my opinion
It has it's place of course, but i think in this age, especially in the era of "Advanced analytics" people just go wit that, and don't have any sort of feel to sports or the flow of the game.
anyway, quick change of subject
It's a math equation that is based off what has happened on the field and who is currently on the field now. So Football knowledge is baked into it.
Flow of the game should matter but that's not what pro analytics people are arguing against. However Anti-analytics side dont factor that in either when they say just to take the pts.
The "Take the points" opinion is in regard to going for it when you don't need to. Plenty of teams have put themselves behind the 8 ball going for it unnecessarilly, fucking it up..and then needing to scramble because of it later in the game.
The debate here is, whether or not daboll needed to.
It was a great opportunity to punch it in, but he obviously felt like they couldn't
The debate here is, whether or not daboll needed to.
It was a great opportunity to punch it in, but he obviously felt like they couldn't
