General A thread to discuss and follow the incoming inflation bomb

[BeardOfKnowledge]

So exactly what @Hauler said

An article conflating futures and prices.
And...



You: they'll be back to normal curve by this time 2022.

Us: they will moderate but we aren't crashing due to significant demand that will continue keep prices well above prepandemic curves.

Don't try to coopt our message.

Co-opting? Lol, k.

 

[ThatOneDude]

So exactly what @Hauler said

An article conflating futures and prices.
And...



You: they'll be back to normal curve by this time 2022.

Us: they will moderate but we aren't crashing due to significant demand that will continue keep prices well above prepandemic curves.

Don't try to coopt our message.

I really hate how negative you are on wood crashing like Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.

 

[BeardOfKnowledge]

I really hate how negative you are on wood crashing like Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.

He's in denial.

 

[ThatOneDude]

He's in denial.

I'm putting all my eggs in your basket on this sir

 

[BeardOfKnowledge]

I'm putting all my eggs in your basket on this sir

Read the article. It isn't just my basket.

 

[ThatOneDude]

Read the article.

No

 

[Deleted member 1]

I really hate how negative you are on wood crashing like Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.

Wood went up 400+% in a year here.
It can lose half it's value (which has been predicted for months going into summer) and it'll still be double the usual curve. But just like articles conflating futures and prices, news will talk about prices being great and dropping....to twice as much as prepandemic levels.

 

[BeardOfKnowledge]

Wood went up 400+% in a year here.
It can lose half it's value (which has been predicted for months going into summer) and it'll still be double the usual curve. But just like articles conflating futures and prices, news will talk about prices being great and dropping....to twice as much as prepandemic levels.

The article also discusses cash prices dropping. It's weird that you're so defensive of high wood prices, lol.

 

[ThatOneDude]

Wood went up 400+% in a year here.
It can lose half it's value (which has been predicted for months going into summer) and it'll still be double the usual curve. But just like articles conflating futures and prices, news will talk about prices being great and dropping....to twice as much as prepandemic levels.

400% is bullshit, and it needs to crash and come back to reality.
I'm just bitter because I refuse to pay current pricing for my dream log cabin.

 

[ThatOneDude]

The article also discusses cash prices dropping. It's weird that you're so defensive of high wood prices, lol.

He is clearly a part of Big Wood! Those yachts don't pay for themselves.

 

[Deleted member 1]

400% is bullshit, and it needs to crash and come back to reality.
I'm just bitter because I refuse to pay current pricing for my dream log cabin.

September 2019 high for OSB sheet ( @Hauler favorite guide point to make his blood pressure rise) was $8.16 per sheet.

As of today:

OSB 7/16 Application as 4ft. X 8 ft. Sheathing Panel 386081 - The Home Depot

As a stand-out alternative to plywood, OSB Sheathing is engineered to prevent any cupping, warping or splitting. Oriented Strand Board (OSB) is a material with high mechanical properties, built for load-bearing

www.homedepot.com

48.35/sheet

Lumbers up 400%+
Fucking OSB even more.

Again don't conflate futures with current prices.

You're OSB at 25 dollars Will seem like a great deal because of the insanity and tulip mania going on recently. But the huge housing demand has a baseline that is higher than pre-pandemic levels and has been increasing since before the pandemic regardless. It's also compounded with private equity maintaining short supply on lack of historical housing supply creation.

 

[ThatOneDude]

September 2019 high for OSB sheet ( @Hauler favorite guide point to make his blood pressure rise) was $8.16 per sheet.

As of today:

OSB 7/16 Application as 4ft. X 8 ft. Sheathing Panel 386081 - The Home Depot

As a stand-out alternative to plywood, OSB Sheathing is engineered to prevent any cupping, warping or splitting. Oriented Strand Board (OSB) is a material with high mechanical properties, built for load-bearing

www.homedepot.com

48.35/sheet

Lumbers up 400%+
Fucking OSB even more.

Again don't conflate futures with current prices.

You're OSB at 25 dollars Will seem like a great deal because of the insanity and tulip mania going on recently. But the huge housing demand has a baseline that is higher than pre-pandemic levels and has been increasing since before the pandemic regardless. It's also beautiful and compounded with private equity containing short supply on lack of historical housing supply creation.

I just want prices for home building to be sub $200 per sqft, I'll take $199.99 a square foot, my line in the sand is $200 a sqft.

 

[Deleted member 1]

I just want prices for home building to be sub $200 per sqft, I'll take $199.99 a square foot, my line in the sand is $200 a sqft.

If the Fed continues to miss the mark on inflation and is forced to quickly create different policy, such as drying up some of the money supply and moving rates up quickly instead of slowly, you could see the market stall pretty fast.
We are built on a house of cards here and there's a serious chance for major volatility.

The housing market is in notoriously sensitive sector to these types of moves.
But commodities are also a typically safe haven during the same.

Regardless the fed made direction towards near future rate increases this week. And the market hasn't panicked yet. So it's starting to be cooked into the cost. Which is good and predictable, but doesn't bode well for your hope to catch prepandemic values inside of a year.

 

[Hauler]

I just want prices for home building to be sub $200 per sqft, I'll take $199.99 a square foot, my line in the sand is $200 a sqft.

Even if lumber falls off enough to get you to that number, labor cost is going up, up, up.

It all falls to the bottom line.

 

[ThatOneDude]

Even if lumber falls off enough to get you to that number, labor cost is going up, up, up.

It all falls to the bottom line.

I'm hoping the labor cost going up is offset by the falling lumber pricing.

 

[Hauler]

September 2019 high for OSB sheet ( @Hauler favorite guide point to make his blood pressure rise) was $8.16 per sheet.

As of today:

OSB 7/16 Application as 4ft. X 8 ft. Sheathing Panel 386081 - The Home Depot

As a stand-out alternative to plywood, OSB Sheathing is engineered to prevent any cupping, warping or splitting. Oriented Strand Board (OSB) is a material with high mechanical properties, built for load-bearing

www.homedepot.com

48.35/sheet

Lumbers up 400%+
Fucking OSB even more.

Again don't conflate futures with current prices.

You're OSB at 25 dollars Will seem like a great deal because of the insanity and tulip mania going on recently. But the huge housing demand has a baseline that is higher than pre-pandemic levels and has been increasing since before the pandemic regardless. It's also compounded with private equity maintaining short supply on lack of historical housing supply creation.

OSB is still going up.

But this week is trending to be the 1st week the upward movement stalls out and we're probably flat the rest of the month - then it should start to follow lumber down a bit after the 4th holiday.

But it won't drop to where it was unless shit truly hits the fan.

It will have what I call the "gasoline effect". When gas goes from $1/g to $4/g, everyone gets pissed but are ecstatic when it finally drops back to $2/g. What's lost in that elation is the reality that you're still paying 2x what you were when it was $1/g.

 

[Deleted member 1]

It will have what I call the "gasoline effect". When gas goes from $1/g to $4/g, everyone gets pissed but are ecstatic when it finally drops back to $2/g. What's lost in that elation is the reality that you're still paying 2x what you were when it was $1/g.

 

[ThatOneDude]

OSB is still going up.

But this week is trending to be the 1st week the upward movement stalls out and we're probably flat the rest of the month - then it should start to follow lumber down a bit after the 4th holiday.

But it won't drop to where it was unless shit truly hits the fan.

It will have what I call the "gasoline effect". When gas goes from $1/g to $4/g, everyone gets pissed but are ecstatic when it finally drops back to $2/g. What's lost in that elation is the reality that you're still paying 2x what you were when it was $1/g.

 

[member 1013]

The price is going down for wholesalers.

My buddy (who is actually named buddy) has 70 million of lumber bought at high prices on his lot to sell before he can start taking advantage of that and lowering his prices

 

[ThatOneDude]

The price is going down for wholesalers.

My buddy (who is actually named buddy) has 70 million of lumber bought at high prices on his lot to sell before he can start taking advantage of that and lowering his prices

You're not supposed to dox @Splinty, we talked about this.

 

[Hauler]

The price is going down for wholesalers.

My buddy (who is actually named buddy) has 70 million of lumber bought at high prices on his lot to sell before he can start taking advantage of that and lowering his prices

Price from the mills are definitely dropping, but the best deals right now are at the wholesale level where they are trying to get out from under high priced inventory in a falling market.

$70mm is about 350 railcars of lumber based on where the market got to. That's a lot of wood. Hopefully your buddy saved some of that crazy money he was making while the market was a rocket.

 

[member 1013]

$70mm is about 350 railcars

Yes, it is indeed about tree fiddy

I knew you would get it

 

[Qat]

You're not supposed to dox @Splinty, we talked about this.

His name is Buddy Guy

 

[ThatOneDude]

His name is Buddy Guy

Stop doxxing @Splinty!

 

[Hauler]

Yes, it is indeed about tree fiddy

I knew you would get it