General A thread to discuss and follow the incoming inflation bomb

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BeardOfKnowledge

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
61,384
56,694
Splinty said:
So exactly what Hauler @Hauler said

An article conflating futures and prices.
And...



You: they'll be back to normal curve by this time 2022.

Us: they will moderate but we aren't crashing due to significant demand that will continue keep prices well above prepandemic curves.

Don't try to coopt our message.
Click to expand...
Co-opting? Lol, k.
 
ThatOneDude

ThatOneDude

Commander in @Chief, Dick Army
First 100
Jan 14, 2015
35,368
34,139
Splinty said:
So exactly what Hauler @Hauler said

An article conflating futures and prices.
And...



You: they'll be back to normal curve by this time 2022.

Us: they will moderate but we aren't crashing due to significant demand that will continue keep prices well above prepandemic curves.

Don't try to coopt our message.
Click to expand...
I really hate how negative you are on wood crashing like Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.
 
D

Deleted member 1

Guest
ThatOneDude said:
I really hate how negative you are on wood crashing like Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.
Click to expand...
Wood went up 400+% in a year here.
It can lose half it's value (which has been predicted for months going into summer) and it'll still be double the usual curve. But just like articles conflating futures and prices, news will talk about prices being great and dropping....to twice as much as prepandemic levels.
 
BeardOfKnowledge

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
61,384
56,694
Splinty said:
Wood went up 400+% in a year here.
It can lose half it's value (which has been predicted for months going into summer) and it'll still be double the usual curve. But just like articles conflating futures and prices, news will talk about prices being great and dropping....to twice as much as prepandemic levels.
Click to expand...
The article also discusses cash prices dropping. It's weird that you're so defensive of high wood prices, lol.
 
ThatOneDude

ThatOneDude

Commander in @Chief, Dick Army
First 100
Jan 14, 2015
35,368
34,139
Splinty said:
Wood went up 400+% in a year here.
It can lose half it's value (which has been predicted for months going into summer) and it'll still be double the usual curve. But just like articles conflating futures and prices, news will talk about prices being great and dropping....to twice as much as prepandemic levels.
Click to expand...
400% is bullshit, and it needs to crash and come back to reality.
I'm just bitter because I refuse to pay current pricing for my dream log cabin.
 
D

Deleted member 1

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ThatOneDude said:
400% is bullshit, and it needs to crash and come back to reality.
I'm just bitter because I refuse to pay current pricing for my dream log cabin.
Click to expand...

September 2019 high for OSB sheet ( Hauler @Hauler favorite guide point to make his blood pressure rise) was $8.16 per sheet.

As of today:

48.35/sheet

Lumbers up 400%+
Fucking OSB even more.

Again don't conflate futures with current prices.

You're OSB at 25 dollars Will seem like a great deal because of the insanity and tulip mania going on recently. But the huge housing demand has a baseline that is higher than pre-pandemic levels and has been increasing since before the pandemic regardless. It's also compounded with private equity maintaining short supply on lack of historical housing supply creation.
 
ThatOneDude

ThatOneDude

Commander in @Chief, Dick Army
First 100
Jan 14, 2015
35,368
34,139
Splinty said:
September 2019 high for OSB sheet ( Hauler @Hauler favorite guide point to make his blood pressure rise) was $8.16 per sheet.

As of today:

48.35/sheet

Lumbers up 400%+
Fucking OSB even more.

Again don't conflate futures with current prices.

You're OSB at 25 dollars Will seem like a great deal because of the insanity and tulip mania going on recently. But the huge housing demand has a baseline that is higher than pre-pandemic levels and has been increasing since before the pandemic regardless. It's also beautiful and compounded with private equity containing short supply on lack of historical housing supply creation.
Click to expand...
I just want prices for home building to be sub $200 per sqft, I'll take $199.99 a square foot, my line in the sand is $200 a sqft.
 
D

Deleted member 1

Guest
ThatOneDude said:
I just want prices for home building to be sub $200 per sqft, I'll take $199.99 a square foot, my line in the sand is $200 a sqft.
Click to expand...

If the Fed continues to miss the mark on inflation and is forced to quickly create different policy, such as drying up some of the money supply and moving rates up quickly instead of slowly, you could see the market stall pretty fast.
We are built on a house of cards here and there's a serious chance for major volatility.

The housing market is in notoriously sensitive sector to these types of moves.
But commodities are also a typically safe haven during the same.

Regardless the fed made direction towards near future rate increases this week. And the market hasn't panicked yet. So it's starting to be cooked into the cost. Which is good and predictable, but doesn't bode well for your hope to catch prepandemic values inside of a year.
 
Hauler

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
48,774
60,793
ThatOneDude said:
I just want prices for home building to be sub $200 per sqft, I'll take $199.99 a square foot, my line in the sand is $200 a sqft.
Click to expand...
Even if lumber falls off enough to get you to that number, labor cost is going up, up, up.

It all falls to the bottom line.
 
ThatOneDude

ThatOneDude

Commander in @Chief, Dick Army
First 100
Jan 14, 2015
35,368
34,139
Hauler said:
Even if lumber falls off enough to get you to that number, labor cost is going up, up, up.

It all falls to the bottom line.
Click to expand...
I'm hoping the labor cost going up is offset by the falling lumber pricing.
 
Hauler

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
48,774
60,793
Splinty said:
September 2019 high for OSB sheet ( Hauler @Hauler favorite guide point to make his blood pressure rise) was $8.16 per sheet.

As of today:

48.35/sheet

Lumbers up 400%+
Fucking OSB even more.

Again don't conflate futures with current prices.

You're OSB at 25 dollars Will seem like a great deal because of the insanity and tulip mania going on recently. But the huge housing demand has a baseline that is higher than pre-pandemic levels and has been increasing since before the pandemic regardless. It's also compounded with private equity maintaining short supply on lack of historical housing supply creation.
Click to expand...
OSB is still going up.

But this week is trending to be the 1st week the upward movement stalls out and we're probably flat the rest of the month - then it should start to follow lumber down a bit after the 4th holiday.

But it won't drop to where it was unless shit truly hits the fan.

It will have what I call the "gasoline effect". When gas goes from $1/g to $4/g, everyone gets pissed but are ecstatic when it finally drops back to $2/g. What's lost in that elation is the reality that you're still paying 2x what you were when it was $1/g.
 
D

Deleted member 1

Guest
Hauler said:
It will have what I call the "gasoline effect". When gas goes from $1/g to $4/g, everyone gets pissed but are ecstatic when it finally drops back to $2/g. What's lost in that elation is the reality that you're still paying 2x what you were when it was $1/g.
Click to expand...
 
ThatOneDude

ThatOneDude

Commander in @Chief, Dick Army
First 100
Jan 14, 2015
35,368
34,139
Hauler said:
OSB is still going up.

But this week is trending to be the 1st week the upward movement stalls out and we're probably flat the rest of the month - then it should start to follow lumber down a bit after the 4th holiday.

But it won't drop to where it was unless shit truly hits the fan.

It will have what I call the "gasoline effect". When gas goes from $1/g to $4/g, everyone gets pissed but are ecstatic when it finally drops back to $2/g. What's lost in that elation is the reality that you're still paying 2x what you were when it was $1/g.
Click to expand...
Splinty said:
Click to expand...
 
M

member 1013

Guest
The price is going down for wholesalers.

My buddy (who is actually named buddy) has 70 million of lumber bought at high prices on his lot to sell before he can start taking advantage of that and lowering his prices
 
ThatOneDude

ThatOneDude

Commander in @Chief, Dick Army
First 100
Jan 14, 2015
35,368
34,139
Lars said:
The price is going down for wholesalers.

My buddy (who is actually named buddy) has 70 million of lumber bought at high prices on his lot to sell before he can start taking advantage of that and lowering his prices
Click to expand...
You're not supposed to dox @Splinty, we talked about this.
 
Hauler

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
48,774
60,793
Lars said:
The price is going down for wholesalers.

My buddy (who is actually named buddy) has 70 million of lumber bought at high prices on his lot to sell before he can start taking advantage of that and lowering his prices
Click to expand...
Price from the mills are definitely dropping, but the best deals right now are at the wholesale level where they are trying to get out from under high priced inventory in a falling market.

$70mm is about 350 railcars of lumber based on where the market got to. That's a lot of wood. Hopefully your buddy saved some of that crazy money he was making while the market was a rocket.
 
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