General Beware the American virus - Corona numbers

[regular john]

My hometown University is conducting an interesting epidemiological study about the corona. it's state wide for now but it will be implemented nationally and according to the Dean it will be the biggest such study in the world. He likes to boast but I reckon @MMAPlaywright can confirm it is legit as fuck.

They are testing 500 people at random in nine different cities totalling 4500 people, in four stages. They have conducted two stages already. First study they tested 4189 people (for some reason didn't complete 4500), found two positives which amounts to 0.005% or 1/2000 people, indicating there were 5650 people infected in the state. At that point official numbers had 733 people infected, indicating that for every official case there would be four other cases;

Second stage they completed 4500 tests with six positives amounting to 0,13% or 1/769 people, indicating there are 15.066 people infected. Official numbers have 1318 cases, indicating that for every reported case there are other 12 cases. A more conservative estimation has it 1-5 official case-actual cases, more radical has 1-26.

Now you take official numbers from anywhere and do that math. US has a whopping 1,127712 cases, most radical estimation would say there are actual 31,660512 people infected with the corona in the country. US has ~ 1/3 of all the cases in the world, almost the same as all the other top 10 countries combined. this is the American virus.

 

[Rambo John J]

My hometown University is conducting an interesting epidemiological study about the corona. it's state wide for now but it will be implemented nationally and according to the Dean it will be the biggest such study in the world. He likes to boast but I reckon @MMAPlaywright can confirm it is legit as fuck.

They are testing 500 people at random in nine different cities totalling 4500 people, in four stages. They have conducted two stages already. First study they tested 4189 people (for some reason didn't complete 4500), found two positives which amounts to 0.005% or 1/2000 people, indicating there were 5650 people infected in the state. At that point official numbers had 733 people infected, indicating that for every official case there would be four other cases;

Second stage they completed 4500 tests with six positives amounting to 0,13% or 1/769 people, indicating there are 15.066 people infected. Official numbers have 1318 cases, indicating that for every reported case there are other 12 cases. A more conservative estimation has it 1-5 official case-actual cases, more radical has 1-26.

Now you take official numbers from anywhere and do that math. US has a whopping 1,127712 cases, most radical estimation would say there are actual 31,660512 people infected with the corona in the country. US has ~ 1/3 of all the cases in the world, almost the same as all the other top 10 countries combined. this is the American virus.

I thought you were in Brazil

American Virus lol...that's funny

 

[SuperPig]

this is the American virus.

We made that virus famous!

Made it our own. Only the best viruses.

Before us the other viruses were broken. They were broken and outdated and didn't work. But this one, thanks to the great job we've done, is really a beautiful - a great virus!

 

[regular john]

What's interesting is that they tested family members of the six positives from the second stage study and found a 75% infection rate. e.g. my hometown has 6.1 cases for every 100k people; a much smaller city in the state has 169.3 cases for every 100k people. IMHO study tells us these numbers are pure random by now. if your hometown has a low per 100k number, best you can do is thank God and remain isolated. it only takes one people to infect dozens of others quickly resulting in hundreds or thousand of new infections and chaos.

BUT of course, state governor and several mayors are using these low numbers in the state to justify relaxation of social isolation/distancing measures. I predict numbers will skyrocket quickly.

 

[Rambo John J]

What's interesting is that they tested family members of the six positives from the second stage study and found a 75% infection rate. e.g. my hometown has 6.1 cases for every 100k people; a much smaller city in the state has 169.3 cases for every 100k people. IMHO study tells us these numbers are pure random by now. if your hometown has a low per 100k number, best you can do is thank God and remain isolated. it only takes one people to infect dozens of others quickly resulting in hundreds or thousand of new infections and chaos.

BUT of course, state governor and several mayors are using these low numbers in the state to justify relaxation of social isolation/distancing measures. I predict numbers will skyrocket quickly.

lots of other takeaways from your data...but if you wanna just stick with the fear based takeaways that is Fine

 

[member 3289]

To be fair, it's the New York-New Jersey virus

 

[MMAPlaywright]

My hometown University is conducting an interesting epidemiological study about the corona. it's state wide for now but it will be implemented nationally and according to the Dean it will be the biggest such study in the world. He likes to boast but I reckon @MMAPlaywright can confirm it is legit as fuck.

They are testing 500 people at random in nine different cities totalling 4500 people, in four stages. They have conducted two stages already. First study they tested 4189 people (for some reason didn't complete 4500), found two positives which amounts to 0.005% or 1/2000 people, indicating there were 5650 people infected in the state. At that point official numbers had 733 people infected, indicating that for every official case there would be four other cases;

Second stage they completed 4500 tests with six positives amounting to 0,13% or 1/769 people, indicating there are 15.066 people infected. Official numbers have 1318 cases, indicating that for every reported case there are other 12 cases. A more conservative estimation has it 1-5 official case-actual cases, more radical has 1-26.

Now you take official numbers from anywhere and do that math. US has a whopping 1,127712 cases, most radical estimation would say there are actual 31,660512 people infected with the corona in the country. US has ~ 1/3 of all the cases in the world, almost the same as all the other top 10 countries combined. this is the American virus.

I can confirm the legitimacy of this. Speaking epidemiologically, this is an exciting and potentially groundbreaking study. Lots of us are very much looking forward to seeing it play out.

 

[Rambo John J]

I can confirm the legitimacy of this. Speaking epidemiologically, this is an exciting and potentially groundbreaking study. Lots of us are very much looking forward to seeing it play out.

I like the samples from each city

wish it was more than 9 cities but it gets expensive I am sure

I also wanna see the results

 

[regular john]

I like the samples from each city

wish it was more than 9 cities but it gets expensive I am sure

I also wanna see the results

They'll do it in 133 cities across all stats starting on May, 5th.

 

[regular john]

I like the samples from each city

wish it was more than 9 cities but it gets expensive I am sure

I also wanna see the results

Also, the government gave 800 billions to private banks the first day of the crisis. passed a Constitutional Amendment securing other hundreds of billions in credit for them. has one trillion in fiscal reserves to appease the market.

This study costs a few hundred thousand bucks and can guide health policy at the most appropriate time in history. it's peanuts. one way or another, it's got nothing to do with money.

 

[Rambo John J]

Also, the government gave 800 billions to private banks the first day of the crisis. passed a Constitutional Amendment securing other hundreds of billions in credit for them. has one trillion in fiscal reserves to appease the market.

This study costs a few hundred thousand bucks and can guide health policy at the most appropriate time in history. it's peanuts. one way or another, it's got nothing to do with money.

I realize this

who is paying for this study?

what tests are being used?

 

[regular john]

I realize this

who is paying for this study?

what tests are being used?

State wide study is funded by Health Ministry and three private institutions. I’m not sure who is funding the national study.

test used is the “quick antibodies test” (not sure if this translates right or if it’s informative at all)

 

[silentsinger]

All y'all were telling me I was being daft for cancelling my plans to go to the Chinese New Year Parade in San Francisco a couple months back and that I was being paranoid.

Look where we are now?! That coupled with the majority of The Bay Area/Silicon Valley's main production plants being in China has fucked us over a treat here.

 

[Rambo John J]

wasssup with the study @regular john
update?

 

[The Big Guy]

wasssup with the study @regular john
update?

Results are that china is responsible. It's a chinese virus. From china. China. Virus. Fuck communism. Fuck china. Fuck Xi.

 

[tang]

Results are that china is responsible. It's a chinese virus. From china. China. Virus. Fuck communism. Fuck china. Fuck Xi.
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[member 3289]

@regular john it's about to become the Brazil virus

 

[regular john]

wasssup with the study @regular john
update?

the initial state wide four stages were completed. State government will do more stages and nation wide research has started as well.

I’ll post more detailed numbers later but basically results suggest that there isn’t a widespread outburst of the virus in the state; results from stages 2-4 were similar. That subnotification ratio is at 1-7 iirc

 

[Filthy]

the initial state wide four stages were completed. State government will do more stages and nation wide research has started as well.

I’ll post more detailed numbers later but basically results suggest that there isn’t a widespread outburst of the virus in the state; results from stages 2-4 were similar. That subnotification ratio is at 1-7 iirc

what's the latest?

still the American virus, or does Brazil have their own flavor?

 

[ThatOneDude]

what's the latest?

still the American virus, or does Brazil have their own flavor?

They are still working on peachmints down there.

 

[Filthy]

They are still working on peachmints down there.

over a little flu? buncha she-men down there. They need more of the Bolsonaro men.

 

[regular john]

what's the latest?

still the American virus, or does Brazil have their own flavor?

Brazil has its own amazon flavor which is haunting the world as the epidemics in most places are relatively under control but Brazilian numbers keep growing approaching 4k deaths a day at given points with not nearly enough ICUs available, people dying from lack of oxygen, people taking their relatives to hospitals then getting a phone call 5 days later saying their loves ones died, etc. it is a political phenomenon known as a syndemic.

The specific study mentioned in the OP went on (it is still going iirc), was expanded to national level, etc. I lost interest in corona news and lost track of it. Basically, no one knows shit about this virus because scientific studies are under control of private corporations that don't care.

I was into it in the first 12 weeks of the pandemic, which is the timeframe when a government can control an outbreak. In that timeframe our president Bozo mocked the pandemic, excused himself from doing anything about it, gave hundreds of billions to the financial system and fired two Health Ministers, finally settling with a military chubby imbecile as "Health" Minister. Bozo wants the virus to spread because he thrives in an anarchic environment where chaos and armed militias take control and the financial system which rules over him is compliant because rich and upper middle class people are relatively safe if they follow basic guidelines and the virus helps perform a class cleansing that is actually beneficial to commercial, financial and political elites. it is a new political-environmental phenomenon known as the bolsovirus.

 

[Wintermute]

Brazil has its own amazon flavor which is haunting the world as the epidemics in most places are relatively under control but Brazilian numbers keep growing approaching 4k deaths a day at given points with not nearly enough ICUs available, people dying from lack of oxygen, people taking their relatives to hospitals then getting a phone call 5 days later saying their loves ones died, etc. it is a political phenomenon known as a syndemic.

The specific study mentioned in the OP went on (it is still going iirc), was expanded to national level, etc. I lost interest in corona news and lost track of it. Basically, no one knows shit about this virus because scientific studies are under control of private corporations that don't care.

I was into it in the first 12 weeks of the pandemic, which is the timeframe when a government can control an outbreak. In that timeframe our president Bozo mocked the pandemic, excused himself from doing anything about it, gave hundreds of billions to the financial system and fired two Health Ministers, finally settling with a military chubby imbecile as "Health" Minister. Bozo wants the virus to spread because he thrives in an anarchic environment where chaos and armed militias take control and the financial system which rules over him is compliant because rich and upper middle class people are relatively safe if they follow basic guidelines and the virus helps perform a class cleansing that is actually beneficial to commercial, financial and political elites. it is a new political-environmental phenomenon known as the bolsovirus.

What country is this study being conducted in? Brazil? Is this the amendment to the constitution you mentioned?

 

[regular john]

What country is this study being conducted in? Brazil? Is this the amendment to the constitution you mentioned?

Yes Brazil. I heard on the news that it’s still going, had new results yesterday actually, indicating that vaccination may be contributing to some dissemination control.

And yes it’s the same amendment. The major fiscal law in the country has a built-in system allowing the government to override fiscal goals in case of an emergency, which the Supreme Court had already recognized. But the government and congress pretended they had to introduce a “war budget” through constitutional amendment.

then they included pro-market bits in the amendment, most notably an article allowing the central bank to buy bonds “preferably from small and midsize business” as long as the bonds are rated at least B - - by an international rating agency. However a rating from these agencies costs tenths of thousands of dollars, therefore what is happening is that the government is using public money from the poor to buy big business bonds from the rich.

 

[Enock-O-Lypse Now!]

Results are that china is responsible. It's a chinese virus. From china. China. Virus. Fuck communism. Fuck china. Fuck Xi.
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