@JonJonesBeard
To our conversation from last night, here's your answer on our lack of herd immunity and this thing not going away.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
This is the paper that is informing USA and UK Corona virus policy.
System overwhelmed with no intervention estimated 4 million dead in 3 months. I'd have to go back and look at the percentages but it's like 15% of everybody over the age of 70.
If we isolate only the older people and higher risk groups you'll kill a million but you'll overwhelm the system still which will kill another million. 2 million dead in 3 months.
If you do a heavy lockdown for 3 to 4 weeks you see the curve flatten in the system can respond. So that's where we're at and that kind of matches the timeline that we saw for recovered cases in South Korea and Italy, though they picked very different ways to make the resolve cases start beating their new cases. The issue is is that at the end of a month you can't just put everybody back or The virus will come back faster than the healthcare system can respond resulting in those deaths all over again. You won't be able to identify and quarantine and isolate people fast enough so you get an outbreak. Regional and city returning to longer hours and things like that is what is recommended. And this sort of implies that this has to just happen until either enough heard immunity or a vaccine creates a firewall. And the vaccine will happen in about 12 to 18 months. so at the end of this you might see 100,000 Americans die over 18 months. Drastically better than doing nothing. And again this could get better if we see some experience with cases or prophylactic medicines like malarial pills that we've been talking about.
So for those reading this means expect a 4-week heavy slow down followed by slow loosening restrictions, but expect city or regional limitations on crowds for 12 to 18 months unless a new intervention is developed before then. You will essentially have outbreaks and local areas requiring ebb and flow of gathering and other limitations. So you might be good in Texas at large but Fort Worth or San Antonio might have to cancel schools for a week or whatever and then bring them back online as outbreaks happen.