General Corona virus updates

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Splinty

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
89,915
MMAPlaywright said:
Nothing in the last 6 weeks has dampened my alarm in the slightest. To the contrary, we’re seeing abject refusal of many countries to adequately respond or prepare. Of course some of these estimates will be wrong, even substantially wrong. 25/n

But I have no reason to think they’ll be orders-of-magnitude wrong. Even if your personal risk of death is very, very low, don’t mock decisions like canceling events or closing workplaces as undue “panic”. 26/n

These measures are the bare minimum we should be doing to try to shift the peak – to slow the rise in cases so that healthcare systems are less overwhelmed. Each day that we can delay an extra case is a big win for the HC system. 27/n

And yes, you really should prepare to buckle down for a bit. All services and supply chains will be impacted. Why risk the stress of being ill-prepared? 28/n

Worst case, I’m massively wrong and you now have a huge bag of rice and black beans to burn through over the next few months and enough Robitussin to trip out. 29/n

One more thought: you’ve probably seen multiple respected epidemiologists have estimated that 20-70% of world will be infected within the next year. If you use 6-day doubling rate I mentioned above, we land at ~2-6 billion infected by sometime in July of this year. 30/n

Obviously I think the doubling time will start to slow once a sizeable fraction of the population has been infected, simply because of herd immunity and a smaller susceptible population. 31/n

But take the scenarios above (full beds, no PPE, etc, at just 1% of the US population infected) and stretch them out over just a couple extra months. 32/n

That timeline roughly fits with consensus end-game numbers from these highly esteemed epidemiologists. Again, we’re talking about discrepancies of mere days or weeks one direction or another, but not disagreements in the overall magnitude of the challenge. 33/n

This is not some hypothetical, fear-mongering, worst-case scenario. This is reality, as far as anyone can tell with the current available data. 34/n

That’s all for now. Standard disclaimers apply: I’m a PhD biologist but *not* an epidemiologist. Thoughts my own. Yadda yadda. Stay safe out there. /end
Click to expand...

Thread by @LizSpecht: I think most people aren’t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to #COVID19 because they simply haven’t run the numbers yet.…
 
silentsinger

silentsinger

Momofuku
Jun 23, 2015
21,038
14,457
All Apple office employees have been told to stay at home this week but the offices will remain open for any critical work. Which means some poor sod has to man the reception.
 
MMAPlaywright

MMAPlaywright

First 100
First 100
Jan 18, 2015
6,030
10,651
silentsinger

silentsinger

Momofuku
Jun 23, 2015
21,038
14,457
MMAPlaywright said:
Thread by @PalliThordarson: 1/25 Part 1 - Why does soap work so well on the SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus and indeed most viruses? Because it is a self-assembled nanopart…

1/25 Part 1 - Why does soap work so well on the SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus and indeed most viruses? Because it is a self-assembled nanoparticle in which the weakest link is the lipid (fatty) bilayer. A two part thread about soap, viruses and supramolecular chemistry #COVID19
Click to expand...
I've definitely been more aware in public places. Turning taps off with my elbow, but then open doors with bare hands so it kind of cancels it out.

Shopper issues plea for toilet paper and tissues and urges people to STOP coronavirus panic-buying | Daily Mail Online
 
sparkuri

sparkuri

Pulse on the finger of The Cimmunity
First 100
Jan 16, 2015
37,659
49,521
MMAPlaywright said:
Nothing in the last 6 weeks has dampened my alarm in the slightest. To the contrary, we’re seeing abject refusal of many countries to adequately respond or prepare. Of course some of these estimates will be wrong, even substantially wrong. 25/n

But I have no reason to think they’ll be orders-of-magnitude wrong. Even if your personal risk of death is very, very low, don’t mock decisions like canceling events or closing workplaces as undue “panic”. 26/n

These measures are the bare minimum we should be doing to try to shift the peak – to slow the rise in cases so that healthcare systems are less overwhelmed. Each day that we can delay an extra case is a big win for the HC system. 27/n

And yes, you really should prepare to buckle down for a bit. All services and supply chains will be impacted. Why risk the stress of being ill-prepared? 28/n

Worst case, I’m massively wrong and you now have a huge bag of rice and black beans to burn through over the next few months and enough Robitussin to trip out. 29/n

One more thought: you’ve probably seen multiple respected epidemiologists have estimated that 20-70% of world will be infected within the next year. If you use 6-day doubling rate I mentioned above, we land at ~2-6 billion infected by sometime in July of this year. 30/n

Obviously I think the doubling time will start to slow once a sizeable fraction of the population has been infected, simply because of herd immunity and a smaller susceptible population. 31/n

But take the scenarios above (full beds, no PPE, etc, at just 1% of the US population infected) and stretch them out over just a couple extra months. 32/n

That timeline roughly fits with consensus end-game numbers from these highly esteemed epidemiologists. Again, we’re talking about discrepancies of mere days or weeks one direction or another, but not disagreements in the overall magnitude of the challenge. 33/n

This is not some hypothetical, fear-mongering, worst-case scenario. This is reality, as far as anyone can tell with the current available data. 34/n

That’s all for now. Standard disclaimers apply: I’m a PhD biologist but *not* an epidemiologist. Thoughts my own. Yadda yadda. Stay safe out there. /end
Click to expand...
This chick has been on the ball for awhile
 
sparkuri

sparkuri

Pulse on the finger of The Cimmunity
First 100
Jan 16, 2015
37,659
49,521
Inside Job said:
I want one
but I don't trust that it doesn't have the bad cudies

The bad cudies could be anywhere
Click to expand...
Is that how cooties is spelled?
Lol


EVERYTHING I have is sealed.
They were received from backwater USA and boxes sprayed with lysol, and are sitting in ziplock bags, in a box, in a garage.
___________

I had one of my kids quit her job a week ago.
Emailed the manager & told her to be proactive & require masks & latex/nitrile gloves; set the standard for nearby restaurants (ff). She said no they're operating by local "health guidelines".
Now, establishment personnel has CV....

---------

One week ago today, the U.S. had just announced its first death from CV with a few cases.
As of now, U.S. confirms 22 deaths, 550 cases.
---------------
What they're not telling you:

As of 2 days ago there were 26 dead at the Kirkland life care center, 13 of which were confirmed CV cases.
The other tests "haven't come back."

Really...

It's a life care facility, so likely not all died of CV or complications, but confirmed half.

No workers have been tested.
Over 2 dozen have showed symptoms.
None are wearing masks, not due to shortage, but policy.
The fire station was quarantined.

No one but criticals are being tested in that district.
And the test results they have are not being released immediately, they're being "managed".

The hospitals & clinics are overrun.

The perfect weapon doesn't kill immediately, it wounds long term & kills over a period, which is why I likened it to the AK-47 vd. AR-15.
The military specifically chose the 5.56 round's to wound requiring support by opposition to retrieve casualties



View: https://twitter.com/MICHELELYNLAWR1/status/1236824267670593536?s=19




1/4 of Italy is quarantined.





 
Rambo John J

Rambo John J

Baker Team
First 100
Jan 17, 2015
75,303
74,450
sparkuri said:
Is that how cooties is spelled?
Lol


EVERYTHING I have is sealed.
They were received from backwater USA and boxes sprayed with lysol, and are sitting in ziplock bags, in a box, in a garage.
___________

I had one of my kids quit her job a week ago.
Emailed the manager & told her to be proactive & require masks & latex/nitrile gloves; set the standard for nearby restaurants (ff). She said no they're operating by local "health guidelines".
Now, establishment personnel has CV....

---------

One week ago today, the U.S. had just announced its first death from CV with a few cases.
As of now, U.S. confirms 22 deaths, 550 cases.
---------------
What they're not telling you:

As of 2 days ago there were 26 dead at the Kirkland life care center, 13 of which were confirmed CV cases.
The other tests "haven't come back."

Really...

It's a life care facility, so likely not all died of CV or complications, but confirmed half.

No workers have been tested.
Over 2 dozen have showed symptoms.
None are wearing masks, not due to shortage, but policy.
The fire station was quarantined.

No one but criticals are being tested in that district.
And the test results they have are not being released immediately, they're being "managed".

The hospitals & clinics are overrun.

The perfect weapon doesn't kill immediately, it wounds long term & kills over a period, which is why I likened it to the AK-47 vd. AR-15.
The military specifically chose the 5.56 round's to wound requiring support by opposition to retrieve casualties



View: https://twitter.com/MICHELELYNLAWR1/status/1236824267670593536?s=19




1/4 of Italy is quarantined.




Click to expand...
ya I was mostly joking about the cooties/cudies

I did let a package and it's contents sit out in the hot sun for 6 hours the other day to "disinfect", + some hand washing of course
 
sparkuri

sparkuri

Pulse on the finger of The Cimmunity
First 100
Jan 16, 2015
37,659
49,521
Cooties: Louse (plural: lice) is the common name for members of the order Phthiraptera, which contains nearly 5,000 species of wingless insect. Lice are obligate parasites, living externally on warm-blooded hosts which include every species of bird and mammal, except for monotremes, pangolins, and bats.




 
Freeloading Rusty

Freeloading Rusty

Here comes Rover, sniffin’ at your ass
Jan 11, 2016
26,916
26,589
Interesting to see how the response will (if it does) change now that the virus has hit DC (Cruz and Gosar both self quarantined). Cruz has been in confirmed to have been in contact with Pence.
 
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