Society Coronapocalypse USA decimation running death count
- Thread starter Too swole to control
- Start date
Strange study.
1.4 has been established for a month.
It'd be helpful if people stopped looking at 'rates', as they are only representative of how people are reacting to the pandemic.
It's pretty simple:
If no one does anything, 15-20% die.
If we have a trillion ventilators, .5% die.
Personally I am not trusting all the math and data at face value...that ^^^study included
This thing is loaded with propaganda from multiple angles, some countries downplaying it...and some exaggerating it...for a multitude of reasons.
I don't blame anyone for their predictions or view on this Pandemic.
I simply think the Jury is still out.
Not sure what this means.
I know several people with it, and 2 who aren't here anymore.
Some folks won't believe it's real until they are actually infected themselves.
You know how it is.
Sorry to hear that.
Something is going down but I doubt it’s covid.
It's happened before and it's going to happen again.
This just happens to be our turn.
I fell asleep and woke to this fucking nightmare. I guess it has finally gone exponential as they predicted. It is now 1301. It's all happening so fast
Do you agree with Trump's mention of opening up pockets of the country in 2 to 3 weeks? Like if NY is still fucked but Iowa has zero cases, allow Iowa to get back to work.
You'd obviously have to restrict travel from areas that don't have it under control yet.
Sensible or asking for trouble?
Aren’t you the one hiding in the jungle running from the virus and in fear of getting deported?
The death rates aren't accurate. We won't ever know the real death rate, IMO. Many people get it then get better without even going to the hospital or taking a test. That fucks up the math.
I'm not downplaying the problem, but the death rate is always going to look worse than it really is when you aren't dealing with accurate numbers.
And lots of people die misdiagnosed or without testing.
Lack of testing drives both the numerator and the denominator in the same direction.
That's a fair point.
But I think if you are going to weigh which figure is being more incorrectly factored, there are far more people never being diagnosed and getting better on their own than those that die and nobody knowing why.
Mortality rates are difficult to get accurate in the middle of a pandemic, and many people take them as hard numbers. They aren't.
look at Bergamo. They had 98 deaths in the previous March. This year, they had 400. Only 136 were officially COVID19.
the important thing to remember is that, at most, it could be approaching an order of magnitude below what we see now. What we're seeing in the US now, among resolved cases, is a mortality of 15%.
in my estimation, best case mortality is going to be around .8%, but probably closer to 1.6%
so best case on a very limited data set, 60% infected with a .8% mortality - 1.6M dead
obviously we can drive that number lower by #MaskTheFuckUp
From the docs I've talked to, the masks cause more harm than good. The vast majority of the spread is believed to be caused by touch. Doorknobs. Counters. A mask doesn't protect against that, and people with masks fidget with them and can cause infection by having their hands around their face.
If your sick, mask the fuck up.
If you aren't, wash your fucking hands. Often.
I really don't know about the timeline. That seems too quick. you expect the coast to start getting ramped up and just as there's plateauing you expect the rest of the country to start ramping up. I have seen no models that suggest anything other than national level lockdown for 3 to 4 weeks. After that is where there is disagreement and some of them do call for geographic unlocking. And you would expect this geographic areas to be less densely populated areas with exactly the kinds of restrictions you describe.
I just don't think you can set a date for the country when the wave is starting and there's so much variation from the coast and urban centers. We've got very little cases and are just starting exponential growth. New Orleans is on track to become the worst outcomes in the USA.
So you really have to be flexible here and all I know is the models start with full suppression then variations on the same theme of letting up.
wow. No.
that's what the gov't is telling you, but that's because they fucked up and don't have enough masks.
it's despicable.
look at Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong. Everyone should mask the fuck up.
There are all kinds of studies that show that masking up stops the spread of disease.
If you're sick, Stay The Fuck Home. You have no business being out in public if you have ANY symptoms.
I'm not sick.
And I don't have any symptoms.
I check for fever every morning.
you're confusing asymptomatic for disease-free.I'm not sick.
And I don't have any symptoms.
I check for fever every morning.
asymptomatic spread is well-documented. One sample even showed that among 7 people who were exposed at the same time, the asymptomatic people had a higher viral load in their samples. And people continue to shed virus for 4-7 weeks after symptoms first appear.
if you're not symptomatic, mask the fuck up.
if you've already been sick, mask the fuck up.
if you're symptomatic, Stay The Fuck Home.