Something I haven't seen in this thread, so I figure I'll contribute because now we're all pivoting from being experts on infectious diseases to being geopolitical experts.
Something the geopolitical angle obscures is that nations and their leaders rarely are motivated by various chess games with foreign powers. Most of this perception of international relations comes from folk mythologies of royal courts like we'd see in various television shows and some of the cold war framework of understanding the world taken up in the west and fueled by game theorists and their ilk.
Similarly, the psychologizing of Putin, his personal thoughts and feelings, mental health, emotional state or sentimental attachment to the idea of an imperial Russia obscures many things. This has been a dominant narrative in media. While it's useful in some cases, even autocrats have to mobilize a lot of institutions and usually themselves serve at the behest or tolerance of someone else. While Putin's control of the Russian political system is largely absolute, this is not unique to him or their political system. As one Russian friend has belabored to me, Russia has never in its history been a democracy. It wasn't under the emperors or the tsar or the Soviets or Yeltsin or this current regime. Still and all, like many past absolute leaders, Putin's reign has been in a bit of decline for the last few years and may be dovetailing with some reports of a physical ailment that could threaten his health. The latter is largely a rumor, but may as well get thrown on the pile with other explanations for why he's willing to pursue what seems like an irrational course of action. While his popularity among the older folks and the oligarchs may be strong, there have been doubts that he should continue past the next "election" cycle.
Of most interest is who precisely Putin serves at the indulgence of, specifically the oligarchs. In this case the US sanctions gave us an opportunity to look at a couple of them.
en.m.wikipedia.org
en.m.wikipedia.org
en.m.wikipedia.org
These are Putin's homies and pretty much get sanctioned every time he does anything the US or Europe don't like.
But the vaunted oligarchs as a class are worth examinging closely overall because as a class they control most of what happens internally in Russia and Russian politics.
Some basic primers:
www.carnegiecouncil.org
If you want a whole book on the political system: Verso
So any and every analysis about whatever Putin's ambitions are, what Ukraine represents, as well as why NATO and the US are at all relevant to this story that's largely being driven by internal Russian politics should start with an analysis of those politics and specifically how the wealthiest and most powerful people in the country are desperately trying to hold on to the system they and Putin built together, even at great potential cost.
Something the geopolitical angle obscures is that nations and their leaders rarely are motivated by various chess games with foreign powers. Most of this perception of international relations comes from folk mythologies of royal courts like we'd see in various television shows and some of the cold war framework of understanding the world taken up in the west and fueled by game theorists and their ilk.
Similarly, the psychologizing of Putin, his personal thoughts and feelings, mental health, emotional state or sentimental attachment to the idea of an imperial Russia obscures many things. This has been a dominant narrative in media. While it's useful in some cases, even autocrats have to mobilize a lot of institutions and usually themselves serve at the behest or tolerance of someone else. While Putin's control of the Russian political system is largely absolute, this is not unique to him or their political system. As one Russian friend has belabored to me, Russia has never in its history been a democracy. It wasn't under the emperors or the tsar or the Soviets or Yeltsin or this current regime. Still and all, like many past absolute leaders, Putin's reign has been in a bit of decline for the last few years and may be dovetailing with some reports of a physical ailment that could threaten his health. The latter is largely a rumor, but may as well get thrown on the pile with other explanations for why he's willing to pursue what seems like an irrational course of action. While his popularity among the older folks and the oligarchs may be strong, there have been doubts that he should continue past the next "election" cycle.
Of most interest is who precisely Putin serves at the indulgence of, specifically the oligarchs. In this case the US sanctions gave us an opportunity to look at a couple of them.
Gennady Timchenko - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
Boris Rotenberg (businessman) - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
Igor Rotenberg - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
These are Putin's homies and pretty much get sanctioned every time he does anything the US or Europe don't like.
But the vaunted oligarchs as a class are worth examinging closely overall because as a class they control most of what happens internally in Russia and Russian politics.
Some basic primers:
FRONTLINE/WORLD . Moscow - Rich in Russia . How to Make a Billion Dollars - The Oligarchs | PBS
FRONTLINE/World - Moscow - Rich in Russia segment- How to Make a Billion Dollars feature on the Oligarchs - Stories from a small planet
www.pbs.org
Russian Oligarch's Rise to Power Worksheet
Oligarchs control a vast amount of wealth and influence in Russia today. How did these business titans rise to power and what is their relationship to the government? This activity works well in a global history, world history, or comparative government class.
www.carnegiecouncil.org
If you want a whole book on the political system: Verso
So any and every analysis about whatever Putin's ambitions are, what Ukraine represents, as well as why NATO and the US are at all relevant to this story that's largely being driven by internal Russian politics should start with an analysis of those politics and specifically how the wealthiest and most powerful people in the country are desperately trying to hold on to the system they and Putin built together, even at great potential cost.
