Ukraine is going to mostly win this war.
But they are not holding on to Mariupol, you mong.
But they are not holding on to Mariupol, you mong.
M
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This post screams for someone to do the work to crawl through the thread and collect every post of peeps putting their foot in their mouth. Plenty to find I'd assume.
I will go on record so I can either gloat or just pretend I never said these things.
Ways Ukraine 'wins':
1. Ukraine retains control over most of its territory, including Kiev, Odessa, Kharkiv, Sumy etc.
2. Ukraine government stays intact and beyond control of Russia - there will be no 'denazification' as Russia calls it.
3. Ukraine will be free to pursue EU membership (which won't happen for a long while).
Ways Russia 'wins':
1. It takes control of Donbass and Ukraine is forced to recognize Russian control over it and Crimea
2. Ukraine formally renounces plans to join NATO
What I am unsure about:
1. Kherson and southern Zaporozhiza or the 'land bridge' to Crimea. I have no idea if Russia will be able to hold this or not.
M
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I looked like a twat because I said I didn't think Russia invades because they didn't have enough troops and it would end in disaster for them militarily and economically.
I was actually right about that. I was just wrong in not realizing that Putin had the same level of understanding of his country's military capabilities as some random lizard-molesting fruit from Miami.
View: https://twitter.com/iAmTheWarax/status/1508494099456065538?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1508494099456065538%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=
Looks like a junk yard
View: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1349861623322836993?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1349861623322836993%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=
M
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Someone tell the guy in that building that lead negotiator
@Sheepdog wanted to surrender his city to the Russians a month ago bEcAuSe aZoV aRe nAzIs
Someone tell the guy in that building that lead negotiator
But I thought the Russians had captured that city?
WHY ARE THEY STILL DEFENDING IT!?!
Don't they read this forum ffs
Looks like the EU is a non issue.
View: https://twitter.com/militarylandnet/status/1508785735347974152?s=21
Russia has recently stated that they don't need to oust Zelensky's government (probably they realise it's next to impossible to achieve).
Russia has also stated that Ukraine joining the EU is not a sticking point.
Zelensky said last week that they won't join NATO.
You're on pretty safe ground with those three predictions!
View: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/tqwxwf/ua_officer_veteran_of_donbass_war_is_giving_his/
Translated views of Ukranian officer:
A month of war. And a bit, but that's not the point.
All reviews for some anniversaries usually seem forced and artificial. Because events on the frontlines are never tied to the calendar but are defined by logistics, speed of mobilization, current operations. It can happen, that the date has arrived, but you have nothing to write about. But not this time.
Ukraine inflicted the heaviest damage to the advancing enemy group. And that's not even about that Russia lost 30-40 thousand(with KiA and MiA), according to Pentagon. Much more telling is the fact that 150-170 thousand Russian soldiers and officers, gathered for the attack, suddenly stopped being able to advance on Kyiv, cross the Southern Bug, and encircle Kharkiv at the same time.
The Kremlin started to yell that all is according to plan.
To withdraw the troops from Sumy direction, where the Russian positions have collapsed around Trostyanets and Boromly. To leave the Mykolaiv region and pull back almost to the Kherson suburbs. To stop trying to cross Zhytomyr highway in an attempt to encircle the capital. To crawl back from Kharkiv ring road with a bloody nose. Three weeks ago writing on Kadyrov's Twitter "2-3 more days" but continuing to kill themselves for every street in Mariupol.
Besides that, from the Russian side are going to the frontline prison guard forces from FSIN, combined groups of policemen, and conscripts forced to sign a contract. Lots of proofs are coming about recruiting soldiers for 170k rubles salary from poor regions and summons coming to reservists. Russian stalled advances, constant Ukrainian counterattacks, fierce positional battles. What could have happened but heavy losses in the advancing forces?
Nothing.
They have paid with their blood.
But despite real successes, we need to keep a clear head and look at things realistically. Because lately we got carried away with stories like geese shooting down a jet, bees beating everyone and grandma with tomatoes shooting down a drone. And that Ukraine has pilots who shot down 20 enemy planes in aerial combat (only 2 Soviet and American pilots were able to achieve that feat over Mig Alley in Korea), but for some reason, there is not a single killcam from the cockpit.
Engaging in our favorite Special Olympics - figuring out who did more for first successes. It's too early to get ahead of ourselves.
The enemy can reach everywhere inside the territory with ballistic and cruise missiles. Right now someone's unit is not hit only because it hasn't gotten into the target list. And not because they are running out of missiles. The stories about 140 million country not being able to make engines or electronics because of sanctions are easily disproved by Iran, which is making combat drones for years despite heavy sanctions. Yes, and missiles that can get through Patriot SAMs of Saudi Arabia.
They will buy them through third party companies, smuggle them in, will create subsidiaries in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Ukraine managed to buy helicopter blades and they will manage.
Our factories are under fire, our oil depots are under fire - Lviv, Mykolaiv, Lutsk, Vinnytsia, Kalinovka and so on. Strikes are coming everywhere, people who live in these cities know where 500 kg of enemy "cigars" came and what were the results. Russian factories are working. Yes, KAMAZ now has short working day, yes, most likely their plans to move to Euro 5 are abandoned. But they were making 200 trucks per day at their peak. I want to remind you, that before the war buying 500 MAZs a year was considered a big deal for ZSU.
We don't have a heavy ammunition factory, the bullet factory is still only on paper, we don't make aircraft. In essence, we are still hanging on USSR reserves, former Warshav Pact remnants, and allied help. And for every plan with "the West will give us everything" there should be a plan - "And what if fucking not?"
Yes, so far things are going well. Kharkiv is not in danger, Irpen is finally being cleared and there are counterstrikes under Sumy. We are providing reserves from deep behind the frontline, and railroads are still not disrupted by the enemy Air Force.
To deprive North Vietnam of fuel, USAF was doing thousands of sorties with iron and special anti-fueltank bombs, and not just launching 20-30 missiles during the night. In that regard, we can also calm down.
But don't expect that Putin's regime got billion-dollar sanctions and lost 15% of GDP and soon 20k dead just to get punched in the face and leave. To 24th February positions, or other fairy tales.
Moscow is turning on TV propaganda in occupied cities, drags in Riot Police and Rosgvardia to detain protesters, creates military administrations. We will have to comb the Russian with a fine teeth comb from e.g. Kherson, and not turn it into Mariupol, if possible.
It's hard around Izyum(it's hard in a lot of places in JFO, but there in particular). Villages around the crossings were turning into WW1 landscapes - trees that look like used matchsticks and lone chimney pipes. Books will be written about the airborne troops that are holding up the defenses against heavy mechanized units while having only light armor. It's hard in besieged Chernihiv. Even volunteers are sneaking in via country roads with great difficulty.
About Mariupol I want to write separately - this mixture of pain, pride, and military fortitude deserves more than just stingy lines in this review.
While the enemy is being forced out of Bucha and Gostomel, a lot of blood will be shed, and these satellite towns of Kyiv will essentially cease to exist because of the destruction, mines, and unexploded shells. In Gostomel, you can already film post-apocalypse movies near the airfield.
Yes, Russia has lost over 2,000 pieces of equipment - a colossal loss in a month. Ten tank battalion worth, 15 battalion worth of armored vehicles. There are columns of burned-down vehicles to the horizon.
Yes, Moscow lost a 113-meter landing craft packed with supplies and fuel. Moreover, no data on its 55 crew members, unloading personnel, and port security troops were given by the Russian Defense Ministry (and in fact, it is the largest Russian naval loss since World War II).
Yes, the Russians are constrained in the air by the air defense and what survived of our forces - their group, according to the Pentagon claims, makes 250-300 sorties per day, the same as their combined regiment did in Syria. And that's very low in a country like Ukraine.
No deep air operation, just close air support and extremely careful sorties of army aviation. For they had a good look at the remnants of the boots and a piece from the pilot's helmet after a heavy SAM missile hit and every other day they have new mourning photos of the pilots.
All of that is there.
But there is also endless blood, sweat, and tears. The suffering of millions of refugees. Businesses burned in seconds that took years to create. Units with 2-3 tanks left in them after a series of continuous battles.
Nothing is over yet.
Do not tune in to a funny comedy war, where silly Ivans will be disposed of by bees and geese in packs. It would be easier for yourself to bear the hardships of war. Ukraine is conducting a very hard defensive operation at the operational level, conducting limited counterattacks in almost all sectors at the tactical level.
A month of war.
We will win.
Lol, music is pretty appropriate, it could only have been topped by "Yakkety Sax".
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kj-LwE80dgI
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kj-LwE80dgI
M
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Dude is trying to steal Trudeau’s style!
M
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Anyone who thinks Russia is negotiating in good faith probably also thinks Iran isn’t gonna make nukes if we are nice to them and give them moneys.