The MMA Severity Index and its implications for betting

[nuraknu]

"In every case when a +6 faces a -1, the -1 wins via KO."

Kirik Jenness wrote an article about metrics CSAC came up with for determining based on statistics whether a fighter needs a closer brain examination before being licensed to fight.

MMA Severity Index introduced at 2017 ABC convention

When it's ready, fighters' scores will be added to the public database.

This is great for fighter safety, but how is it going to impact betting and matchmaking? How long will it take for oddsmakers to catch up with it? How long before Sean Shelby is a thing of the past, and matches are made based on metrics?

How will it affect Monster's?

Or, will the numbers work out to feels we already had anyway?

 

[Sheepdog]

All the people who bet on Kelvin over Weidman seemed to be basing their silly decision on this index subconsciously, and so did the initial bookie lines.

There are enough variables in MMA for it not to impact betting too much - it already informally works this way, and there are reasons to ignore it. A fighter might be in the wrong weight class, like Kelvin vs Weidman, or may have been fighting in a low ranked organization, or the guy on a KO win streak could be a butter-tooth Brit finally fighting a wrestler, or the guy racking up KO losses could be Alastair Overeem.

And the index is obviously ridiculously simplistic, it doesn't account for possible concussions sustained in wins. Once again, look at Kelvin-Weidman. Robbie Lawler until the Woodley fight wouldn't have registered too high despite going through hell.