Society The Donald J. Trump Show - 4 more years editions

[Hauler]

They probably should include an asterisk on that, eh? Not an additional crime, perhaps.

Even if you take that out of it, it's still a bullshit stat. Of course they committed fewer crimes than native-born citizens. You can't go by total numbers since the native-born citizens far outweigh immigrants. You'd need to go by percentages for an actual case study.

And if that percentage is roughly equal to native-born citizens (I have no idea if it is or not), he still makes his point (talking about the original author, not @MC Gusto) as I'm sure the point he's driving at is that immigrants aren't bad people - or at least no worse than people born here.

Agenda-driven "stats" like that drive me nuts.

 

[Freeloading Rusty]

You don't read what you post? Not surprised by this. The dude claiming crime is low, claiming undocumented immigrants are commiting less crimes than US natives. The tweet. This is why you don't nuke a thread with links and shit. Stick with one and discuss.

Anyways, point is, undocumented immigrant not commiting a crime is ironic to me. Since being here is a crime. This is what they tell you when you immigrate here, so don't come with me with bullshit.

Just because they changed the name from illegal to "undocumented", doesn't mean you're not commiting a crime.

Reading comprehension is key.

No one stated what you are ranting about.

Do you claim either of those statements are false?
- Crime rates have dropped.
- Immigrants commit less crimes than US natives.

No one said, undocumented immigrants have never committed a crime. Yes, being in America without permission is a crime... but that doesn't mean the statements presented are false. Undocumented immigrants committed a crime entering into the USA yet US born citizens still commit crimes at a higher rate than the immigrants. Pretty basic concept really. Illegal immigrants commit less property and violent crimes than US natives.

 

[Freeloading Rusty]

As an undocumented immigrant I second this.

Thailand is luck to have you.

Undocumented and unemployed, what a great contribution you must bring to the Thai culture.

 

[Freeloading Rusty]

@MC Gusto



By definition, undocumented immigrants are ALL committing a crime just by being here. So the percentage of undocumented immigrants who are committing a crime would be right around 100%. Give or take 0%.

I fully understand this statement and no one claimed it wasnt true.

Stats tell us, US citizens still commit more crimes (violent and property) than any immigrants (legal, illegal / undocumented).

Feel free to provide counter stats to this point.

You can't go by total numbers since the native-born citizens far outweigh immigrants. You'd need to go by percentages for an actual case study.

Any why do you feel they didnt go by percentages or per capita? Do you have any info to back these claims up?



Notice how the charts are per 100,000 people? Which means it is not based off total numbers as @Hauler claimed.

"As a percentage of their respective populations, there were 56 percent fewer criminal convictions of illegal immigrants than of native-born Americans in Texas in 2015,"

"The criminal conviction rate for legal immigrants was about 85 percent below the native-born rate."

And for transparency, illegal immigrants do surpass native born Americans in a couple forms of criminal activity -- gambling, kidnapping, smuggling and vagrancy (yet only represented less than 0.2% of all criminal convictions in Texas the year of these stats.

 

[Hauler]

Stats tell us, US citizens still commit more crimes (violent and property) than any immigrants (legal, illegal / undocumented).

I'm sure you are correct.

Roughly 15% of people in the United States are foreign-born residents.

So just using 300 million people as a nice round number...
I wouldn't be surprised to find there were more criminals from a group of 255,000,000 people than there would be from a group of 45,000,000

 

[Deleted member 1]

- Immigrants commit less crimes than US natives.

That's always a loaded stat.
Looking at the data, that's probably due to the substantially lower number of young males represented in immigrant populations versus an undifferentiated population. 1st Gen immigrant children commit crimes at the same rate as native children. And within the subset of illegal immigrant children (higher poverty, poor education, etc) skews above the average just like any other poor uneducated native group. We are products of our environment...no surprise.

All of that makes a reasonably strong argument to both continue to push for enforcement against illegal immigration, not passive acceptance, as well as a strong push for integration of first generation children to prevent that socioeconomic fallout.

 

[Freeloading Rusty]

I'm sure you are correct.

Roughly 15% of people in the United States are foreign-born residents.

So just using 300 million people as a nice round number...
I wouldn't be surprised to find there were more criminals from a group of 255,000,000 people than there would be from a group of 45,000,000

You dont understand statistics.

The rates are based off samples of 100,000 people.

No one population is over represented or under represented when the population sizes are controlled in the study.

 

[Freeloading Rusty]

That's always a loaded stat.
Looking at the data, that's probably due to the substantially lower number of young males represented in immigrant populations versus an undifferentiated population. 1st Gen immigrant children commit crimes at the same rate as native children. And within the subset of illegal immigrant children (higher poverty, poor education, etc) skews above the average just like any other poor uneducated native group. We are products of our environment...no surprise.

All of that makes a reasonably strong argument to both continue to push for enforcement against illegal immigration, not passive acceptance, as well as a strong push for integration of first generation children to prevent that socioeconomic fallout.

So basically the longer a family is in America, the more likely they are to be involved in criminal activity. Interesting.

 

[Freeloading Rusty]

To bring it back to the tweet being debated:


All the claims in the tweet seem to be backed up by research and numbers:

Between 1990 and 2013, the foreign-born share of the U.S. population increased from 7.9 percent to 13.1 percent, and the number of unauthorized immigrants went up from 3.5 million to 11.2 million. At the same time, the violent crime rate (murder, rape and aggravated assault) decreased 48 percent and property crime rate fell 41 percent, the report said, citing FBI data.

Foreign born & illegal immigrants share of USA population grew.

During this time the numbers of illegal immigrants were growing in America, both violent and property crime rates dropped.

So where are the falsehoods?

 

[Hauler]

You dont understand statistics.

The rates are based off samples of 100,000 people.

No one population is over represented or under represented when the population sizes are controlled in the study.

If they are using percentages, then that's the way it should be.
If they are talking about total numbers - which is the way many of these "studies" operate so they can drive home a narrative - it's misleading. I wasn't looking at a study in this case - just speaking to the way a tweet was worded.

I wouldn't really expect the percentage to be higher or lower than native-born Americans. People are people.

 

[Freeloading Rusty]

That's always a loaded stat.
Looking at the data, that's probably due to the substantially lower number of young males represented in immigrant populations versus an undifferentiated population. 1st Gen immigrant children commit crimes at the same rate as native children. And within the subset of illegal immigrant children (higher poverty, poor education, etc) skews above the average just like any other poor uneducated native group. We are products of our environment...no surprise.

All of that makes a reasonably strong argument to both continue to push for enforcement against illegal immigration, not passive acceptance, as well as a strong push for integration of first generation children to prevent that socioeconomic fallout.

First generation children dont get charged/ arrested for crimes at the same rate as native born Americans.

Second generation immigrant children commit crimes at a rate closer to native born Americans but still do so at a lesser level... So would say this was due to influence by their American born peers as the children start to become 'Americanized". - Are undocumented immigrants less likely to commit crime?

 

[Deleted member 1]

So basically the longer a family is in America, the more likely they are to be involved in criminal activity. Interesting.

Lies damn lies and statistics.

Our immigration system doesn't offer a good pathway for poor uneducated males aged 16 to 22 to come in legally.
Older males do not commit crimes at the same rate as younger males and women do not commit violent crimes of the rate of any men.

You dont understand statistics.

The rates are based off samples of 100,000 people.

No one population is over represented or under represented when the population sizes are controlled in the study.

You can't just compare a population that is disproportionately older and less likely to commit crime to an undifferentiated population that is younger and includes an increase number of young people that commit more crime... as well as young men which commit a preponderance of all violent crime in all countries on Earth.

Sow me an equal weighted sample. you have to give an even distribution of all kinds of socioeconomic factors to make the comparison.

If you only make the comparison on age and make sure there's an even distribution of ages and sexes I would expect to find the that legal immigrants cause the least amount of crime. Even with the distribution of ages and sex, the group is heavily selected in the legal immigration process to have an increased socioeconomic position and background checks.

Taking undifferentiated populations illegally from different countries would probably depend vastly on the country they're coming from. But no matter which one you pick Young men will increase the crime rate of the population looked at.

 

[Freeloading Rusty]

If they are using percentages, then that's the way it should be.
If they are talking about total numbers - which is the way many of these "studies" operate so they can drive home a narrative - it's misleading. I wasn't looking at a study in this case - just speaking to the way a tweet was worded.

I wouldn't really expect the percentage to be higher or lower than native-born Americans. People are people.

Take a random sample of 100,000 Texans and they get charged for crimes at a higher rate than 100,000 illegal immigrants. Not sure how to break it down any simpler.

 

[Freeloading Rusty]

Lies damn lies and statistics.

Our immigration system doesn't offer a good pathway for poor uneducated males aged 16 to 22 to come in legally.
Older males do not commit crimes at the same rate as younger males and women do not commit violent crimes of the rate of any men.



You can't just compare a population that is disproportionately older and less likely to commit crime to an undifferentiated population that is younger and includes an increase number of young people that commit more crime... as well as young men which commit a preponderance of all violent crime in all countries on Earth.

Sow me an equal weighted sample. you have to give an even distribution of all kinds of socioeconomic factors to make the comparison.

If you only make the comparison on age and make sure there's an even distribution of ages and sexes I would expect to find the that legal immigrants cause the least amount of crime. Even with the distribution of ages and sex, the group is heavily selected in the legal immigration process to have an increased socioeconomic position and background checks.

Taking undifferentiated populations illegally from different countries would probably depend vastly on the country they're coming from. But no matter which one you pick Young men will increase the crime rate of the population looked at.

Where is anyone comparing old men and women to young men's criminal activity rates?

Random samples.

And yes, everyone knows young men commit more crimes than old guys or women. Young males are the population most likely to commit crimes.. this trend seems to slow down as they enter into their mid 20s.

 

[Hauler]

Take a random sample of 100,000 Texans and they get charged for crimes at a higher rate than 100,000 illegal immigrants. Not sure how to break it down any simpler.

I understand the math, bro.
It sounds like Texans need to get their shit together.

 

[Freeloading Rusty]

I understand the math, bro.
It sounds like Texans need to get their shit together.

Maybe Americans should just build a wall around Texas... oh and Florida, just for good measures.

 

[Hauler]

Maybe Americans should just build a wall around Texas... oh and Florida, just for good measures.

After you build a wall around Florida we'd need to fill it with water and soap.

 

[Sheepdog]

Amazing how silent the media is on this. Projections were around 180,000.
We hit 317,000 on the latest jobs report.

I wanted to see if even CNN could throw cold water on such good news:
Hiring surged in December, employers added 312,000 jobs - CNN

They can't - all from their article:

• Wages increased by an average of 3.2% - there was also an increase in hours worked
• 400,000 people joined the labor force looking for jobs
• The percentage of the working-age people in the work force matched a five-year high.
• Job gains were widespread, with construction, manufacturing, health care and leisure and hospitality all posting gains of more than 30,000 jobs.

Maybe because these figures aren't all that impressive or unusual?

And that's taking the stats at face value, instead of treating those numbers as they should be treated - by printing them out and wiping your ass with them.

 

[Hauler]

Maybe because these figures aren't all that impressive or unusual?

And that's taking the stats at face value, instead of treating those numbers as they should be treated - by printing them out and wiping your ass with them.

A jobs report this positive would have been met with high praise from the MSM during previous administrations. That's all I'm saying.

 

[Freeloading Rusty]

A jobs report this positive would have been met with high praise from the MSM during previous administrations. That's all I'm saying.

Looks like MSM is all over it? Not sure how you missed it.

Hiring surged in December, employers added 312,000 jobs - CNN

US adds 312,000 jobs in December, far surpassing expectations

December's Job Numbers Were Massively Better Than Expected

Economy added 312,000 jobs in December

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Rise 312,000 in December Vs. 184,000 Expected

and on and on it goes.

 

[Deleted member 1]

Where is anyone comparing old men and women to young men's criminal activity rates?

Random samples.

Random samples aren't controlled samples. Random samples hide important things like sex, age, wealth, that must be controlled to discuss something as complex as socioeconomic position and influence on crime.

Frequently Requested Statistics on Immigrants and Immigration in the United States

Overall, the immigrant population in 2016 was older than the U.S.-born population. The median age of immigrants was 44.4 years, compared to 36.1 years for the native born. The latter are younger largely because most children of immigrants are born in the United States and a significant share are under age 18. In 2017, of all U.S. born with at least one immigrant parent, 44 percent were children ages 0 to 17, compared to 23 percent of those with U.S.-born parents.

In 2016, fewer than 1 percent of immigrants were under age 5 (compared to 7 percent for the native born), approximately 5 percent were ages 5 to 17 (versus 19 percent), 79 percent were ages 18 to 64 (compared to 59 percent), and 15 percent were ages 65 and older (the same as the U.S. born).

First generation children dont get charged/ arrested for crimes at the same rate as native born Americans.

Second generation immigrant children commit crimes at a rate closer to native born Americans but still do so at a lesser level... So would say this was due to influence by their American born peers as the children start to become 'Americanized". - Are undocumented immigrants less likely to commit crime?

I agree with that trend being factual.
The cause of that trend is up for grabs.
Show me controlled samples.
Is it because of integration influences or lack of integration leaving them "in the cold"? The latter is hypothesis for French terrorism. Either way, I am sure the environment shapes them. It has to.
Is it because they just matching the same age and sex distribution as they grow up and have children here, instead of coming here while they are already older? In that case, people are just people. Young men did their crime in their home country and don't have the appetite for it now that they are older.
Maybe its hidden and neither. Maybe its bimodal like a lot of US socioeconomic numbers. Again, show me controlled data and cut it across race/sex/legal/illegal.

 

[Hauler]

Any why do you feel they didnt go by percentages or per capita? Do you have any info to back these claims up?

I don't like arguing on the side of "immigrants are bad people" because that's not who I am and I don't believe that...

But...

From fiscal years 2011 through 2016, the criminal alien proportion of the total estimated federal inmate population generally decreased, from about 25 percent to 21 percent (as shown in the figure below). During this period, the estimated number of criminal aliens incarcerated in federal prisons decreased from about 50,400 to about 39,500, or 22 percent. Ninety-one percent of these criminal aliens were citizens of one of six countries, including Mexico, Honduras, El Salvador, Dominican Republic, Colombia, and Guatemala.

15% of the population but 21% of the prison population?
Source: Criminal Alien Statistics: Information on Incarcerations, Arrests, Convictions, Costs, and Removals

I don't know. I don't really care.
This isn't how I want to spend my Saturday.

 

[Hauler]

Looks like MSM is all over it? Not sure how you missed it.

Hiring surged in December, employers added 312,000 jobs - CNN

US adds 312,000 jobs in December, far surpassing expectations

December's Job Numbers Were Massively Better Than Expected

Economy added 312,000 jobs in December

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Rise 312,000 in December Vs. 184,000 Expected

and on and on it goes.

Every report I heard on CNN and NPR about the jobs report was littered with caveats. Little digs they throw in because they can't stand to say anything positive.

 

[Freeloading Rusty]

Random samples aren't controlled samples. Random samples hide important things like sex, age, wealth, that must be controlled to discuss something as complex as socioeconomic position and influence on crime.

Frequently Requested Statistics on Immigrants and Immigration in the United States

I agree with that trend being factual.
The cause of that trend is up for grabs.
Show me controlled samples.
Is it because of integration influences or lack of integration leaving them "in the cold"? The latter is hypothesis for French terrorism. Either way, I am sure the environment shapes them. It has to.
Is it because they just matching the same age and sex distribution as they grow up and have children here, instead of coming here while they are already older? In that case, people are just people. Young men did their crime in their home country and don't have the appetite for it now that they are older.
Maybe its hidden and neither. Maybe its bimodal like a lot of US socioeconomic numbers. Again, show me controlled data and cut it across race/sex/legal/illegal.

Spin it as you want to spin it, fact is illegal immigrants are less involved in the criminal justice system than native born Americans.

Y'all are a bunch o criminals.

Illegal immigrant numbers are increasing in America yet crime rates are dropping.

 

[Freeloading Rusty]

I don't like arguing on the side of "immigrants are bad people" because that's not who I am and I don't believe that...

But...

15% of the population but 21% of the prison population?
Source: Criminal Alien Statistics: Information on Incarcerations, Arrests, Convictions, Costs, and Removals

I don't know. I don't really care.
This isn't how I want to spend my Saturday.

Often minorities are over represented in the criminal justice system.

Same shit with blacks in America.

Same shit with Natives in Canada. Shit, natives up here are like 5% of our population yet make up 30+% of our jail population.

Cash rules everything around me.