General Corona virus updates

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Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
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not gonna be that bad my brotha...not close
The Fall worry?

Oh I realize it shouldn't be if we just keep spreading it around throughout the year. Then you'd have have plenty of herd immunity and case count will drop precipitously. Vaccine is 2021 (come at me bro) and we are done with this.

Buuutttt, the rebound in the fall is what happened in the Spanish flu and is where all the deaths came (it did mutate, as flu does) soooo...
 

ShatsBassoon

Throwing bombs & banging moms
First 100
Jan 14, 2015
18,601
33,601
If you really want to be pissed, then consider my worry, but also the other side of the coin.

I worry that this thing is going to float around like flu and come back in the winter. The USA will warm up, slow it down, it stays away largely like the flu and we think we've beat it. Some really well funded studies would have to take place fast to math out the estimated herd immunity in the USA or whatever, but we won't fund that. So it doesn't happen.

Winter comes, its comes back serious (mutated or not) and we are beat down fast with the congregating due to weather, etc. Bam you've got 2-5% death inside of 6 months. wtf mate. No herd immunity. No vaccine. All this again but in the usual cold and flu season.

OR

We slow it down. Herd immunity is enough to stall it and it tapers. It is treated like flu for a little while, then we get a vaccine going in a year and fall of 2021 is silent between previous antibodies and the flu. As we grow older, new kids are exposed and this virus becomes background noise like other 'common cold' coronaviruses. Humanities right of passage; immunity through a viral gauntlet.


People in 2050 make jokes about the 2020 panic. "It's just a common cold'.
Canada has a vaccine in the testing stages right now.

Fingers crossed
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
89,900
Canada has a vaccine in the testing stages right now.

Fingers crossed
Historically, vaccines are 3-6 months to limited trials and 12-15+ to consumer mass production. And that's for stuff like this or ebola where its coming down the pike really fast. Unless there is a tech break through, I just don't see it in inside of 2020 for us normies.
Finding antivirals like flu (actually Tamiflu sucks for most, sorry) would be the fastest help. Get something off the shelf and use it differently.
 

Papi Chingon

Domesticated Hombre
Oct 19, 2015
26,978
33,742
The Fall worry?

Oh I realize it shouldn't be if we just keep spreading it around throughout the year. Then you'd have have plenty of herd immunity and case count will drop precipitously. Vaccine is 2021 (come at me bro) and we are done with this.

Buuutttt, the rebound in the fall is what happened in the Spanish flu and is where all the deaths came (it did mutate, as flu does) soooo...
There are 2 vaccines already done (that I am aware of), but all the red tape and testing that is needed to place either on the market to the general public requires a year +/- of testing on animals before deemed "safe."
 

Rambo John J

Baker Team
First 100
Jan 17, 2015
74,058
73,534
The Fall worry?

Oh I realize it shouldn't be if we just keep spreading it around throughout the year. Then you'd have have plenty of herd immunity and case count will drop precipitously. Vaccine is 2021 (come at me bro) and we are done with this.

Buuutttt, the rebound in the fall is what happened in the Spanish flu and is where all the deaths came (it did mutate, as flu does) soooo...
I'm just being positive

I heard a lot of spanish flu deaths were from too much aspirin and the subsequent increase fluid buildup in the lungs. Ever heard of that?
Also heard lots of the folks were young to mid aged and their immune system overreacted and took em out when that virus got at em.
 

ShatsBassoon

Throwing bombs & banging moms
First 100
Jan 14, 2015
18,601
33,601
Historically, vaccines are 3-6 months to limited trials and 12-15+ to consumer mass production. And that's for stuff like this or ebola where its coming down the pike really fast. Unless there is a tech break through, I just don't see it in inside of 2020 for us normies.
Finding antivirals like flu (actually Tamiflu sucks for most, sorry) would be the fastest help. Get something off the shelf and use it differently.
I'm okay with rolling the dice and skipping trials
 

Papi Chingon

Domesticated Hombre
Oct 19, 2015
26,978
33,742
I'm just being positive

I heard a lot of spanish flu deaths were from too much aspirin and the subsequent increase fluid buildup in the lungs. Ever heard of that?
Also heard lots of the folks were young to mid aged and their immune system overreacted and took em out when that virus got at em.
Define mid aged. The average if expectancy at that point in time was like 45 years old.
 

Papi Chingon

Domesticated Hombre
Oct 19, 2015
26,978
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There are 2 vaccines already done (that I am aware of), but all the red tape and testing that is needed to place either on the market to the general public requires a year +/- of testing on animals before deemed "safe."
I might add that ironically animal testing is how the wuhan virus got into the human population.
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
89,900
I heard a lot of spanish flu deaths were from too much aspirin
Reyes syndrome. Limited knowledge and limited medicine.
Don't take aspirin for your colds people. You might choose the wrong cold.

There was lots of other stuff. People telling each other stuff like enemas cures it, etc. War movement (but hey we have the global movement now), no federal guidance to isolate so communities did whatever they wanted:


Also heard lots of the folks were young to mid aged and their immune system overreacted and took em out when that virus got at em.
Coronavirus is more deadly than spanish flu (by numbers) to old people (turns out Spanish flu death numbers are totally bunk the more I try to research and source them) but has yet to show its ability to kill kids under 9. A hell of a sophies choice but represents our human right to be here over alien invaders.
 

Rambo John J

Baker Team
First 100
Jan 17, 2015
74,058
73,534
Reyes syndrome. Limited knowledge and limited medicine.
Don't take aspirin for your colds people. You might choose the wrong cold.

There was lots of other stuff. People telling each other stuff like enemas cures it, etc. War movement (but hey we have the global movement now), no federal guidance to isolate so communities did whatever they wanted:




Coronavirus is more deadly than spanish flu (by numbers) to old people but has yet to show its ability to kill kids under 9. A hell of a sophies choice but represents our human right to be here over alien invaders.
also read a lot of death was from strep infections and not always the virus...which I think you dudes can treat better today.

so that 1918 death rate of that virus could be a lil bit lower if it hit today

alien invaders? lol wut?
 

Papi Chingon

Domesticated Hombre
Oct 19, 2015
26,978
33,742
Reyes syndrome. Limited knowledge and limited medicine.
Don't take aspirin for your colds people. You might choose the wrong cold.

There was lots of other stuff. People telling each other stuff like enemas cures it, etc. War movement (but hey we have the global movement now), no federal guidance to isolate so communities did whatever they wanted:




Coronavirus is more deadly than spanish flu (by numbers) to old people but has yet to show its ability to kill kids under 9. A hell of a sophies choice but represents our human right to be here over alien invaders.
Is there enough data to make that determination? The vast majority (from what I've heard 80%) of people who tested positive for wuhan had extremely mild to middle of the road symptoms. The 80% is a funny figure since it is only based upon those tested. Anyone thinking they have the cold or the flu and it will just pass most likely don't go to a doctor and just deal with being sick for a week or two. How many people have had the cold or the flu this (or any) year? There is no way to track this. Stats on those who die due to the flu don't even give an accurate representation of the true numbers, as many die with side effects from the flu, like heart attack, so the death certificate won't necessarily show true cause of death. Long story short, many many more people have had wuhan than the stats show, simply because people just dealt with it like they had the cold or the flu.
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
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Well good things we waited so long to test guys.






Would have been a shame to follow HK's lead.
I guess we'll hopefully jump onto that S Korea curve and not keep on going.


 

Freeloading Rusty

Here comes Rover, sniffin’ at your ass
Jan 11, 2016
26,916
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Will Canada close its border with the United States? - Macleans.ca
As of yesterday (March 12), Canada had conducted over a thousand more tests than the United States, and we are one-tenth the size. As a result of testing and other measures, the growth rate of the virus is substantially lower in Canada, increasing at a rate of under 20 per cent per day. By comparison, in the U.S. confirmed cases are growing at an average rate of 40 per cent over the last seven days. In one analysis of WHO data, Canada is doubling the number of infected every six days, while the US is doing so every two days. They are on track to reach Italian levels of infection within the next two weeks.

As a result, the single most likely vector for the coronavirus to spread into Canada, without question, is the movement of people across our southern border.
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
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Is there enough data to make that determination?
No, but there are trends and current assessments. Even 1918 flu data isn't great. But I'm not arguing over specific percentages in areas were things get closer. Straight up, no kid 0-9 has been diagnosed with coronavirus and died right now. Lots of kids die from flu and died from spanish flu. You don't need specifics to state that wide gap as a defining difference.
 

Papi Chingon

Domesticated Hombre
Oct 19, 2015
26,978
33,742
Well, anyone who ends up getting time off from work or has a city that shuts down I want you to know I'm hosting a weekend party at my house and everyone is welcome. There will be lots of drinking, and I am planning some fun activities and games, kicking off with apple bobbing, twister, and a spitting contest (first one will be for distance, the second will be for volume). Lots of fun activities!
 

sparkuri

Pulse On The Finger Of The Community
First 100
Jan 16, 2015
36,852
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There are 2 vaccines already done (that I am aware of), but all the red tape and testing that is needed to place either on the market to the general public requires a year +/- of testing on animals before deemed "safe."
3 that I'm aware of.
One from upstate NY, one from Israel, & isn't Canada bragging about something?
 
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ShatsBassoon

Throwing bombs & banging moms
First 100
Jan 14, 2015
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Just a heads up if you're running low on shit tickets. ebay has some outrageously good deals


 

Papi Chingon

Domesticated Hombre
Oct 19, 2015
26,978
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I just want to point out what you may already know, but others may not about a distinction in this statement.

- If everyone has access to the best of modern medicine in a timely manner, it might


3 that I'm aware of.
One from upstate NY, one from Israel, & isn't Canada bragging about something?
I was aware of Israel and canada, was not aware of new york, nor others that may be in existence.