It’s borne upon the backs of four elephants that themselves stand upon the back of a giant turtle
It’s borne upon the backs of four elephants that themselves stand upon the back of a giant turtle
And it's turtles all the way down the line.It’s borne upon the backs of four elephants that themselves stand upon the back of a giant turtle
Lumber futures are up today.Up on 18 months, back down in 18 months. World keeps on spinning.
I know. It's a last ditch pump on the futures and HD stocks.Lumber futures are up today.
Mills being stubborn on counters.
It's a game of chicken right now.
But there's no way all those gains are gone in 18 months.
It's almost as if no lessons were learned in 2008. Have you been seeing this trend locally to manipulate inventory scarcity?As I just said I am aware that it is not due to due to new home building. Quite the opposite. Since 2008 we have been well below our 50 year average on new housing supply creation. All while our population is growing. People have moved out of high-cost urban centers into more low-cost areas following the pandemic and they're significantly more demand in those areas. Every single city in Texas is experiencing this. Every single Southern Urban center is experiencing this.
The distribution of housing supply is out of whack with where people are at right now.
The significantly increases housing prices in those areas as you would expect.
And with that there is money to be made on new home builds and that is starting now as builders race to take advantage of this demand and flippers do construction on existing homes to compete..
They are giving out money like it's nothing again.It's almost as if no lessons were learned in 2008. Have you been seeing this trend locally to manipulate inventory scarcity?
I didn't. But its only part of the equation. Behind that is a real supply issue that has been brewing since 2008 developers got caught with their pants down and were left holding the bag on hundreds of unsellable houses. They have never built out from that. This is different.@Splinty called me a retard when I said it's 2008 all over again.
YesHave you been seeing this trend locally to manipulate inventory scarcity?
Its the same but different this time.I didn't. But its only part of the equation. Behind that is a real supply issue that has been brewing since 2008 developers got caught with their pants down and were left holding the bag on hundreds of unsellable houses. They have never built out from that. This is different.
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This isn't new
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He must read my posts here.Lumber executive sees further relief in sky-high prices, says delaying building projects makes sense
Lumber industry veteran Kyle Little said it's sensible to delay building projects due to high wood costs. "We do see some relief over the next six to 12 months."www.cnbc.com
- Sherwood Lumber's Kyle Little told CNBC on Tuesday that further relief in lumber prices is likely ahead.
- However, the firm's COO cautioned that prices will probably be well above pre-Covid averages.
- "The jobs that you have coming up, don't expect us to go back to what we saw the previous 10 years. That being said, if you can wait, there's no reason not to," Little said.
We do see some relief over the next six to 12 months, still albeit at prices that are much, much higher than prices we've experienced in the recent past," added Little, who's spent more than a decade at Sherwood Lumber, a privately held New York-based wholesale distributor. He's also a former lumber trader.
Lumber futures have faced significant weakness in the past month following a major move higher during the Covid pandemic. Lumber futures for July delivery fell more than 5% to $1,158 per thousand board feet Tuesday, which is down more than 30% from a record $1,711 on May 10.
Despite the recent declines, lumber remains up more than 200% in the past 12 months.
In late May, Little told CNBC he expected the current lumber cycle, featuring volatile trading and elevated prices, to remain for "the foreseeable future." At the time, he stressed that prices could come off their highs but still be above historic averages.
He reiterated that view Tuesday, saying the company's forecast "really has not changed."
He must read my posts here.
He was very clearly reading my posts from yesterday.He must read my posts here.
I'd probably leave them for now unless you can get them to market really quickly.I might harvest some mature trees on my land
but I love dem
Harvesting Trees is code.I'd probably leave them for now unless you can get them to market really quickly.
No, it's not. I've seen his property and am one of his consultants.Harvesting Trees is code.
"seen his property"No, it's not. I've seen his property and am one of his consultants.