General A thread to discuss and follow the incoming inflation bomb

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Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
47,674
59,563
Up on 18 months, back down in 18 months. World keeps on spinning.
Lumber futures are up today.
Mills being stubborn on counters.

It's a game of chicken right now.

But there's no way all those gains are gone in 18 months.
 

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
60,724
56,231
Lumber futures are up today.
Mills being stubborn on counters.

It's a game of chicken right now.

But there's no way all those gains are gone in 18 months.
I know. It's a last ditch pump on the futures and HD stocks.
 

kneeblock

Drapetomaniac
Apr 18, 2015
12,435
22,917
As I just said I am aware that it is not due to due to new home building. Quite the opposite. Since 2008 we have been well below our 50 year average on new housing supply creation. All while our population is growing. People have moved out of high-cost urban centers into more low-cost areas following the pandemic and they're significantly more demand in those areas. Every single city in Texas is experiencing this. Every single Southern Urban center is experiencing this.
The distribution of housing supply is out of whack with where people are at right now.
The significantly increases housing prices in those areas as you would expect.
And with that there is money to be made on new home builds and that is starting now as builders race to take advantage of this demand and flippers do construction on existing homes to compete..
It's almost as if no lessons were learned in 2008. Have you been seeing this trend locally to manipulate inventory scarcity?

 
D

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@Splinty called me a retard when I said it's 2008 all over again.
I didn't. But its only part of the equation. Behind that is a real supply issue that has been brewing since 2008 developers got caught with their pants down and were left holding the bag on hundreds of unsellable houses. They have never built out from that. This is different.

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This isn't new

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D

Deleted member 1

Guest
Have you been seeing this trend locally to manipulate inventory scarcity?
Yes
There's huge money to be made with these prices and I'm seeing large groups buying all the houses to turn into flips and rentals...against those trying to buy a single family home.
 

ThatOneDude

Commander in @Chief, Dick Army
First 100
Jan 14, 2015
35,390
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D

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  • Sherwood Lumber's Kyle Little told CNBC on Tuesday that further relief in lumber prices is likely ahead.
  • However, the firm's COO cautioned that prices will probably be well above pre-Covid averages.
  • "The jobs that you have coming up, don't expect us to go back to what we saw the previous 10 years. That being said, if you can wait, there's no reason not to," Little said.

We do see some relief over the next six to 12 months, still albeit at prices that are much, much higher than prices we've experienced in the recent past," added Little, who's spent more than a decade at Sherwood Lumber, a privately held New York-based wholesale distributor. He's also a former lumber trader.

Lumber futures have faced significant weakness in the past month following a major move higher during the Covid pandemic. Lumber futures for July delivery fell more than 5% to $1,158 per thousand board feet Tuesday, which is down more than 30% from a record $1,711 on May 10.

Despite the recent declines, lumber remains up more than 200% in the past 12 months.

In late May, Little told CNBC he expected the current lumber cycle, featuring volatile trading and elevated prices, to remain for "the foreseeable future." At the time, he stressed that prices could come off their highs but still be above historic averages.

He reiterated that view Tuesday, saying the company's forecast "really has not changed."
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
47,674
59,563

  • Sherwood Lumber's Kyle Little told CNBC on Tuesday that further relief in lumber prices is likely ahead.
  • However, the firm's COO cautioned that prices will probably be well above pre-Covid averages.
  • "The jobs that you have coming up, don't expect us to go back to what we saw the previous 10 years. That being said, if you can wait, there's no reason not to," Little said.

We do see some relief over the next six to 12 months, still albeit at prices that are much, much higher than prices we've experienced in the recent past," added Little, who's spent more than a decade at Sherwood Lumber, a privately held New York-based wholesale distributor. He's also a former lumber trader.

Lumber futures have faced significant weakness in the past month following a major move higher during the Covid pandemic. Lumber futures for July delivery fell more than 5% to $1,158 per thousand board feet Tuesday, which is down more than 30% from a record $1,711 on May 10.

Despite the recent declines, lumber remains up more than 200% in the past 12 months.

In late May, Little told CNBC he expected the current lumber cycle, featuring volatile trading and elevated prices, to remain for "the foreseeable future." At the time, he stressed that prices could come off their highs but still be above historic averages.

He reiterated that view Tuesday, saying the company's forecast "really has not changed."
He must read my posts here.