How badly is the Delta variant going to fuck us?
On first pass of the Israeli data, I'm not too concerned.
There are all these headlines talking about how 50% of new cases in Israel are vaccinated people. Reading into the data this is absolutely a stupid misleading stat meant to catch headlines and empower antivaccination crowd. It's a stat for people that can't do math.
In Israel a great majority of people, around 80% at the time of those stats, were vaccinated. They're simply aren't that many unvaccinated people. And in fact for the 20% unvaccinated makeup a disproportionately large percentage of those new cases. You're 20% of the population but 50% of the new cases.
The vaccines are less effective against the Delta variant but based on the Israeli data still appears to be around 80 to 85% effective.
So just like a year in which flu shots are less effective than another year, the answer is not that vaccines aren't working. In fact they appear to be working as intended. Instead to get the same amount of spread slowing you simply need to vaccinate more. Given that we have dropped off dramatically in the number of people getting vaccinated, I believe the large portion of the unvaccinated population will be the real limiting factor in keeping cases down rather than the Delta variant. All those people would get infected anyways.