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After reaching a record high, OSB is now...
This is going to be interesting.
Where's it at in relation to prepandemic levels?
Where's it at in relation to prepandemic levels?
It's all over the board. Market can't find a level. Still well above prepandemnic numbers, but Id say the gap just got cut in half.
So it went from $300/m in March '19 to $1200/m 2 weeks ago. Today I'm seeing anywhere from $500/m to $800/m
Some mills must have stockpiled material to "hide" supply and when the market fell a little last week (by $50/m) I think they panicked and decided to clear the decks. I'm seeing open market availability that I haven't seen in 15 months.
I'm wondering if some box stores cancelled contract orders this week. I'll know more on Friday.
Guaranteed this will be the biggest ever 1 week decline in OSB pricing.
FYI - lumber fell off a cliff as well but we're still above "normal" levels. The drop has cooled off a bit after being in a free fall for 4 weeks.
Lumber fell off again by triple digits this week.
We are now at the upper end of what would be considered "normal"
During the run up, China exited the market and started buying from Russia. I think they'll be players again at these levels, and with the fires out west I wouldn't be shocked if we see a dead cat bounce. I don't think stability sets in until November or December, but when it does it will likely settle in at a price about 25% higher than historical "normal" levels.
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I mean that's a lot better then what most analysts were saying where they were thinking it would be 50-100% for a couple of years until we get the rest of the supply issues managed out with this demand.
Still going to be like gas prices. 25% up and everybody will cheer it as cheap lol
Nobody thought it would fall this fast. It's been an insane ride.
I haven't plugged in this week's numbers yet, but it will be pretty close to the levels we saw in November 2020.
June 2021 CPI
+0.9%
That's 1 month. That is crazy.
Used vehicle purchases were a heavy contributor to the insane monthly hike in CPI.
Y-O-Y it's up 5.4%
Largest jump since August 2008. Anyone remember what happened around that time? Hmm? That's rhetorical btw.
Excluding food and energy, inflation increased 4.5% - the largest move since September 1991
www.cnbc.com
+0.9%
That's 1 month. That is crazy.
Used vehicle purchases were a heavy contributor to the insane monthly hike in CPI.
Y-O-Y it's up 5.4%
Largest jump since August 2008. Anyone remember what happened around that time? Hmm? That's rhetorical btw.
Excluding food and energy, inflation increased 4.5% - the largest move since September 1991
Inflation climbs higher than expected in June as price index rises 5.4%
The consumer price index was expected to increase 5% year over year in June, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
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HeyLooks like I will owe@kneeblock the untold sum of a fraction of lumber price he mentioned
@kneeblock was our half bet only About the USA? I don’t even member what the terms were lol
I wouldn't settle up just yet.Looks like I will owe
That fractional untold sum might be heading your way. Sometimes a dead cat haunts. ? ?
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I couldn't understand them because I'm your father and we are not a smart familyHey
Futures are limit up.
Mills standing firm. Curtailment of 114 million board feet announced by Canfor - blaming the wildfire out west.
Mills are going to do everything they can to work the prices back up. Guys like me didn't want to catch a falling knife during the fall but folks will need to start buying again because we are all still as busy as ever.
The bottom has likely been set. We tickled the top end of "normal".
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Good looks and sleeping my way to the middle
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Why did you put it in quotations like that?!
and waffles.
@Hauler Where are we at with lumber prices these days?
I need to buy some cedar for the outside of my house/front porch area. I haven't priced it out yet, but I have wondered if I should backburner this project for a bit. It's not a ton of cedar that I need - wrapping several 4x4 posts and the header beams for an accent on the front of the house. For the header beams I am going to need some longer pieces to avoid seams (maybe 16-footers?). Might also make some faux shudders on the big porch window (undecided on this part). I ask because one of my neighbors said that the quality cedar is super expensive right now.
Excuse me?
Lumber dropped to an amount that would be considered at the upper edge of normal ebb and flow prices. Mills are no longer open to counters and the price is actually heading back up on some items.
Where are we at with lumber prices these days?
I need to buy some cedar for the outside of my house/front porch area. I haven't priced it out yet, but I have wondered if I should backburner this project for a bit. It's not a ton of cedar that I need - wrapping several 4x4 posts and the header beams for an accent on the front of the house. For the header beams I am going to need some longer pieces to avoid seams (maybe 16-footers?). Might also make some faux shudders on the big porch window (undecided on this part). I ask because one of my neighbors said that the quality cedar is super expensive right now.
This is cash wood direct from the mill, so it will take a minute for these prices to be reflected at the retail level.
That said, cedar is its own monster.
I buy 6x6 10'. Pre-Cov $95 ea. Now $135 ea.
Also 1x6 RSC. Pre-Cov $1 LF. Now $1.80
My assumption is cedar will hold those prices for a bit - especially with the fires out west.
This is obviously very anecdotal but the Lowe's and Home Depot stores I've been in recently have had "unadvertised, in store sales" on most of the lumber aisle in an obvious attempt to move inventory without calling a lot of attention to it.
I gotta put in a 96 foot long and 8 foot high cedar fence on part of my property
pricing materials today
might get ugly
Thanks man, appreciate it. That LF pricing for the 1x6 will help me at least estimate what I'm getting myself into here. That's mostly what I will need. I knew cedar isn't inexpensive anyways, and I don't want to buy shit lumber for this project because it is strictly an aesthetic thing. I also need to do some research on sealing products for raw cedar to keep it looking good. I don't want to stain, but do want to seal it up good to help preserve color and slow down the graying.
I'd recommend stealing it.
I think the cedar fence pickets (the common dog-eared ones) are about 5 bucks a piece here.