General A thread to discuss and follow the incoming inflation bomb

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BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
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It's still higher than pre-covid levels - and it's actually trending up again by a little bit.

Mills have already made curtailments and the fires out west are delaying shipments. It will be interesting to see where it settles.
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
47,651
59,536
Where you at Hauler @Hauler ?


Also - LOL at using Conifex as an example. They aren't a pimple on an elephant's ass when it comes to lumber production. Them curtailing means literally nothing.

But I have it on good authority that Canfor has done some curtailing. That is meaningful. If West Fraser follows suit, you'll definitely see prices head north again.
 

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
60,719
56,226
Also - LOL at using Conifex as an example. They aren't a pimple on an elephant's ass when it comes to lumber production. Them curtailing means literally nothing.

But I have it on good authority that Canfor has done some curtailing. That is meaningful. If West Fraser follows suit, you'll definitely see prices head north again.
What you're referring to is market manipulation/price fixing rather than inflation. It's most definitely not inflation due to covid.
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
47,651
59,536

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
60,719
56,226
3 weeks in a row the market has printed up.
Not a meteoric rise, but even after the huge drop we never got to pre-Covid levels and now we are heading back up.
Give it time. I've got another 9 months. You also previously said it got down to highwe pre-covid levels a few months ago. YOU LIAR!!!
 
M

member 1013

Guest
Where before I was reasonably confident the inflation worries were at best a temporary blip, now I'm resoundingly confident the idea is an influence campaign to control monetary policy. @Splinty @Let Love Lead let's have a friendly wager on this. The CPI rose this month by 0.8%. I will bet that by October, the average monthly increase will be no greater than 0.2% if not in the negative. If inflation is running away, this prediction should easily fail. If I lose, I'll pay each of you the difference in how much higher it is times $100, e.g. 1.0-0.2=0.8 * 100=80 or 0.5-0.2=0.3 * 100=30 etc. If I win, you both donate 0.2% of your 2020 tax return to a charitable cause of my choosing.
BeardOfKnowledge @JakePaulsBeard this was the original wager, but I changed it because I don’t get money back from gubmint
 
M

member 1013

Guest
In July, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis; rising 5.4 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent in July (SA); up 4.3 percent over the year (NSA).

 

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
60,719
56,226
In July, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis; rising 5.4 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent in July (SA); up 4.3 percent over the year (NSA).

Don't worry, they'll start pulling stuff out of their basket of goods before long.
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
47,651
59,536
Give it time. I've got another 9 months. You also previously said it got down to highwe pre-covid levels a few months ago. YOU LIAR!!!
Higher end of pre-covid average is where it got.
Prior to the crazy rise, it was lower than normal.
 

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
60,719
56,226
Higher end of pre-covid average is where it got.
Prior to the crazy rise, it was lower than normal.
I understand, but for that point to have been valid you would have been operating under the assumption that the lower than normal price was going to last forever and that just can't be right.
 

Hauler

Been fallin so long it's like gravitys gone
Feb 3, 2016
47,651
59,536
I understand, but for that point to have been valid you would have been operating under the assumption that the lower than normal price was going to last forever and that just can't be right.
My stance the entire time is that the market has normal ebb and flow fluctuations, and we would eventually return to that practice but at a higher level than what had been established for the last 5 or 6 years.

Nobody anticipated the sudden, crazy drop - but it never got to a previous "average", and now we're heading north.

The news media can say lumber is down 50% over the last 3 months and they'd be right, but it doesn't change the fact that it's still sitting 20% higher than what was considered "normal", and it's climbing.