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Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
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91,096
Thank you for that, and I appreciate you taking the time. I think what you might not realize is that, at least here although I suspect it's true in other jurisdictions as well, we've been beat over the head with case count being the be all, end all for informing public policy since last May. So for the WHO to now tell the public "Oh, we've been counting cases that didn't matter from a clinical perspective so we're not going to count those anymore." is very difficult to appreciate from a rubber meets the road perspective.

Because epidemiologically and public health wise (going up or going down) you can still successfully use an aggregate of these cases even when detected at the end of their infection when they are on the mend (and have infected others). Comparing trends over weeks from this data likely has similar variance to the fact that there is delay in reporting data into systems in the first place. Trends are being studied. Rubber meets the road? It still matters for predicting resource utilization. It just lowers how far out you are predicting.

Clinically at the individual level current cycles leaves a lot of questions. But that's also why I have clinical context to add to that result. It only leaves me ambiguity in asymptomatic patients and prevents contact tracing, which again is worthless right now because we shot the moon. I don't use pcr outpatient almost at all at this point. I do use inpatient and it has saved some lives there.

The opposite of this conversation is ironically my rapid test which are less sensitive but incredibly specific. they miss people but I have a result in 15 minutes. people have been poo-pooing them for a long time and I've been using them since the spring. As I've said before if they're right only 80% of the time I'm still putting an 80% modifier to separate out the sick from the well and I can do so in 15 minutes. Missing so many cases really puts a hole in raw numbers on trends. But it's excellent for an individual not getting their department or family sick most of the time. And again we still use clinical context and counsel on the limitation of the test on how the individual should respond to the result.
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
91,096
From a Joe Public perspective rather than a clinician's.

Case trends still matter and PCR does a fine job showing that overall.

I'd much rather we focus on deaths and hospitalization.

But case count isn't without its own benefits. I'm seeing a huge number of patients having extended recovery times that are not represented in either hospitalization or deaths. This economic cost and human cost is most reflected in cases. With case counts you can predict averages of how many people will be out of work, resource utilization, hospitalization, and deaths. And you can do a lot of that before it happens, allowing you to mobilize resources for what's coming in the next couple of weeks.


But I understand your point I just disagree that it's an OR issue. It's AND.
But yes case counts alone don't paint the whole picture. And they still aren't being over counted.
 

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
60,549
56,270
Case trends still matter and PCR does a fine job showing that overall.

I'd much rather we focus on deaths and hospitalization.

But case count isn't without its own benefits. I'm seeing a huge number of patients having extended recovery times that are not represented in either hospitalization or deaths. This economic cost and human cost is most reflected in cases. With case counts you can predict averages of how many people will be out of work, resource utilization, hospitalization, and deaths. And you can do a lot of that before it happens, allowing you to mobilize resources for what's coming in the next couple of weeks.


But I understand your point I just disagree that it's an OR issue. It's AND.
But yes case counts alone don't paint the whole picture. And they still aren't being over counted.
I don't believe it to be an either or issue, but when the previous method was used to decide far reaching public policy, and now we're scrapping that method because it was deemed unfit, that's an understandably hard pill for the effected public to handle. I'm also not saying they are, or were over counted, but when someone loses their business based on case count, and how cases are counted is changed, the explanation of why cases weren't actually being overcounted previously becomes a case of semantics more than anything.
 
M

member 3289

Guest
Screenshot_20210123-161829_BBC News.jpg

Florida is at about 6.9% but as usual the dregs of the country in California/New York/Texas are shitting up the national average.
 
M

member 3289

Guest
Are we going to acknowledge that California's tougher restrictions have been effective?