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BeardOfKnowledge (Admin) said:
and yet another missed prediction. I mean at least they were close this time around, but still. "Breaking records on consecutive days." would have been more than enough. Now they're just wrong, again, ffs.

nationalpost.com

Ontario needs stronger public health measures to fight Omicron, experts say

Ontario's panel of COVID-19 experts says that without further measures, there could be 10,000 daily new cases before Christmas
nationalpost.com nationalpost.com
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www.thestar.com

Ontario reports a single-day record in new COVID cases, with a staggering 16% positivity rate

Locally, there are 1,527 new cases in Toronto, 491 in Peel, 470 in York, 334 in Durham and 259 in Halton.
www.thestar.com www.thestar.com

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M

member 1013

Guest
Splinty said:
Is it Christmas day or not?


Lol at holding on to your position so hard because an "up to" prediction is only 95%+ accurate a day ahead of time
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Why are you being like this an hour from jeebus day
 
BeardOfKnowledge

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
61,799
56,990
Splinty said:
Is it Christmas day or not?


Lol at holding on to your position so hard because an "up to" prediction is only 95%+ accurate a day ahead of time
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They've been laughably wrong with every previous prediction. They could have said "We'll be breaking records every day." Instead they went for the scary big number, and again are wrong.

p.s. Christmas Eve is literally as close to "before Christmas" as we can possibly give them.

p.p.s. My position is simply that the experts should be good at their jobs. Shaping public policy based on predictions that are consistently wrong is idiocy.
 
Shinkicker

Shinkicker

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Jan 30, 2016
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www.yahoo.com

Early-stage research suggests a milk protein combined with Benadryl may help fight COVID-19

Researchers may have discovered an effective prevention treatment strategy for inhibiting the virus that causes COVID-19 and its mutations, according to the results of a recent study.
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com

The report suggested that combining diphenhydramine — an antihistamine sold as Benadryl that is used for allergy symptoms — and lactoferrin — a protein found in cow and human milk — reduced replication of SARS-CoV-2 by 99% in lab tests on human lung and monkey cells.
 
D

Deleted member 1

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BeardOfKnowledge (Admin) said:
They've been laughably wrong with every previous prediction. They could have said "We'll be breaking records every day." Instead they went for the scary big number, and again are wrong.

p.s. Christmas Eve is literally as close to "before Christmas" as we can possibly give them.

p.p.s. My position is simply that the experts should be good at their jobs. Shaping public policy based on predictions that are consistently wrong is idiocy.
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They were 95% right a day early. It's a pretty good prediction. And really just not a good example to show experts missing the mark.

Beyond that how are you ignoring the way media works so hard? This is considerably more about the article framing the panel than the panel which we don't have many quotes from.

Without further intervention, the science table’s modelling suggests Ontario is poised to see more than 10,000 new daily cases by Christmas. Even with a circuit breaker, the science table said the daily case count could approach record levels by New Year’s Day.
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It seems pretty obvious that there was a round table going on and someone said "we could see 10,000" without intervention as part of a larger conversation. And you have.
They also state that with big intervention daily case counts could still hit record levels by new years. Which they already have.

You're taking a headline, worrying about 95% not being 100% and then ignoring that it's a distilled article not quotes with an attention grabbing headline.

For all the things that have been wrong with real effects (locking down too early and too late would be great examples where we killed people with bad predictions) this seems a strange thing to stand on.
 
TheFifthScallop

TheFifthScallop

Who am I kidding? I’m a whore.
Amateur Fighter
Nov 15, 2015
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Im not a doctor. I’m not an infectious disease expert. I’m not a scientist. Am I a skeptical person? Yes. Do I like what’s happening, and the regulations that are in place? Fuck no. Do I think there are a lot of inconsistencies in the regulations? Fuck yes.

However, the best I can do for myself is listen to what the majority of experts are saying. Can I “look into” things? Absolutely. Does that mean I’m going to understand it and not misinterpret it? Absolutely not. Again, I must yield to what the majority of experts are saying. Are there experts who disagree with the majority? Yeah. Are they right? I don’t know. All I can do is listen to the vast majority of experts.

This is just a friendly reminder to not let your ego get the best of you. Chances are, you’re not an expert. I don’t believe I’ve said this in a while, but… If you’re not an expert, you can have an opinion. But you should probably just shut the fuck up. Does that mean you shouldn’t question things? No. But you should probably yield to what the vast majority of what experts are saying. There’s nothing dumber than two dummies arguing with each other when they really don’t know what the fuck they’re talking about.

Stop being silly fucks.
 
Shinkicker

Shinkicker

For what it's worth
Jan 30, 2016
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Gay For Pay said:
Im not a doctor. I’m not an infectious disease expert. I’m not a scientist. Am I a skeptical person? Yes. Do I like what’s happening, and the regulations that are in place? Fuck no. Do I think there are a lot of inconsistencies in the regulations? Fuck yes.

However, the best I can do for myself is listen to what the majority of experts are saying. Can I “look into” things? Absolutely. Does that mean I’m going to understand it and not misinterpret it? Absolutely not. Again, I must yield to what the majority of experts are saying. Are there experts who disagree with the majority? Yeah. Are they right? I don’t know. All I can do is listen to the vast majority of experts.

This is just a friendly reminder to not let your ego get the best of you. Chances are, you’re not an expert. I don’t believe I’ve said this in a while, but… If you’re not an expert, you can have an opinion. But you should probably just shut the fuck up. Does that mean you shouldn’t question things? No. But you should probably yield to what the vast majority of what experts are saying. There’s nothing dumber than two dummies arguing with each other when they really don’t know what the fuck they’re talking about.

Stop being silly fucks.
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Two dummies, you say? Just two?
 
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Gay For Pay said:
Im not blowing his dick here, but @Splinty is probably one of the most qualified people on here to talk about the subject.
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My expertise is only at the clinical level and interpreting others research papers to the point that someone might routinely know what to look for in stats. The guys doing bench top research and actually recommending high level public health policy have a significantly different skillset than I do and am not trained on.
 
TheFifthScallop

TheFifthScallop

Who am I kidding? I’m a whore.
Amateur Fighter
Nov 15, 2015
5,812
7,306
Splinty said:
My expertise is only at the clinical level and interpreting others research papers to the point that someone might routinely know what to look for in stats. The guys doing bench top research and actually recommending high level public health policy have a significantly different skillset than I do and am not trained on.
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At least you can admit that.
 
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