Lifestyle Let's talk stocks!

[b00ts]

Found a little gem earlier... $HDSN Here's my look.

Value

• My estimates put future value at $26.28/share.
• This puts a current value at $13.23/share.
• Analysis using future cash flow put it at $17.76/share.
• It's currently (3/4/17) trading at $7.13, as of closing.
• >50% discount
• PEG at 0.6x
• I'm putting my margin of safety at $6.63

Performance

• I'm showing a future growth of around 22%
• Analysis are showing 27.5%
• I've got their 5-year intrinsic growth at 33%
• Performed above industry average last year and is expected to do so again
• It's one-year earnings growth exceeded 5-year average (113% vs 18%)

Management

• CEO's compensation is in line with company performance
• Average tenure for BoD is 15 years
• They are doing an excellent job, by the ROE, ROA, and ROC

Risk

• Emporer Trump wanting to gut the EPA. If the regulation on refrigeration is eased on, this could have consequences to the reclamation industry.

 

[b00ts]

Office Depot is also one to watch...$ODP

Value

• My estimate of future value is $13.32
• Analysis have future value at $7.04, putting the current price at roughly a 35% discount
• My current value for The Company is $6.62
• That leaves a margin of safety of $3.31 or a 50% discount
• The Company was trading at $4.57 as of closing on 3/4/17

Past Performance

• The Company has exceeded the earnings growth the last year
• The Company has had strong earnings growth for the last 5 years

Debt

• Total debt is covered by OCF
• Interest on debt is covered by earnings 8.1x
• The level of debt compared to net worth HAS increased over the last 5 years

Dividends

• Office Depot has only recently started paying dividends.
• Current 2.21%
• Dividend payments covered by net profit

Management

• New CEO
• Tenure for BoD is about 4 years
• CEO is planning on completing Office Max merger in 2017 and streamline sale of international stores to work on growth at home
• Phase 2 store closure underway (this will help focus on and improve sites)
• Optimizing retail business model
• Converted 25 stores to future format

THE BAD

• Revenue down 1.5% Y/Y
• 4% decline in retail segments same-store sales
• 5% decline in business solutions segment
• Projecting lower sales in 2017 due to closures, one less week, contract customer losses, and difficult market conditions

 

[Hauler]

@Alco Hauler What's fracking looking like? Was thinking about hitting the numbers on a few companies this weekend to try and find a gem that the market has undervalued. I think a good play would be for service companies, instead of the big name drillers... think proppant, water treatment, etc.

SLCA had an earnings report that wasn't all that bad - but was worse than what was expected. They took a hit, along with a lot of companies in the same sector.

SLCA * $53.10
HCLP * $18.10
EMES * $16.54
SND * $17.00

All should be up 10% in short order.

Do your own DD.

 

[b00ts]

SLCA had an earnings report that wasn't all that bad - but was worse than what was expected. They took a hit, along with a lot of companies in the same sector.

SLCA * $53.10
HCLP * $18.10
EMES * $16.54
SND * $17.00

All should be up 10% in short order.

Do your own DD.

EMES came up for me earlier. Going to look them over tomorrow.

 

[Hauler]

EMES came up for me earlier. Going to look them over tomorrow.

EMES is the one I was going to suggest. I bet they are at $25+ in 6 months.

 

[Simpleman]

Whats the top 5 blue chip stocks to snag for overall investment right now. Have some cash sitting in a rainy day fund that needs to be invested. Already have my 401k just looking for something else to invest in. Im thinking Apple, Home Depot or GE.

 

[jasonhightower]

Whats the top 5 blue chip stocks to snag for overall investment right now. Have some cash sitting in a rainy day fund that needs to be invested. Already have my 401k just looking for something else to invest in. Im thinking Apple, Home Depot or GE.

I have some GE which I've held since I bought them on sale in the crash of 2009. It's been a nice safe one for me. Probably couldn't go wrong with Apple or GE, I'd need to look at Home Depot closer.

 

[b00ts]

Whats the top 5 blue chip stocks to snag for overall investment right now. Have some cash sitting in a rainy day fund that needs to be invested. Already have my 401k just looking for something else to invest in. Im thinking Apple, Home Depot or GE.

If you're looking long-term, I'd go for a company that pays a good dividend with the profit to cover the payments. So something like DLR that pays a 3.8% yield or WM that pays 2.7%... or $3.52/share and $1.64/share, respectively. Some companies that pay out good dividends don't have the means to do so consistently, however, so you need to find a stable company with good growth potential and the ability to consistently cover dividend payments.

 

[Simpleman]

If you're looking long-term, I'd go for a company that pays a good dividend with the profit to cover the payments. So something like DLR that pays a 3.8% yield or WM that pays 2.7%... or $3.52/share and $1.64/share, respectively. Some companies that pay out good dividends don't have the means to do so consistently, however, so you need to find a stable company with good growth potential and the ability to consistently cover dividend payments.

For me its more about being able to cash those stocks in if I need the cash. I dod that with some 3d printer stocks awhile ago. I made enough off those to do what I needed to do. So it could be long term but I dont ever want to touch the 401k after it goes in and thats why I have it laying around right now instead of the 401k. I have been meaning to get on this thread since it started.

 

[Hauler]

Whats the top 5 blue chip stocks to snag for overall investment right now. Have some cash sitting in a rainy day fund that needs to be invested. Already have my 401k just looking for something else to invest in. Im thinking Apple, Home Depot or GE.

My 2 safety stocks are PG and MO. Both are at their 52 week highs right now. Might want to wait until there is a correction.

 

[b00ts]

Man, I really want to get in on these weedstocks, but it's hard finding one with stable fundamentals and growth potential. INSY looks good, but they also make fentanyl and that killed Prince....so fuck them.

 

[jasonhightower]

Man, I really want to get in on these weedstocks, but it's hard finding one with stable fundamentals and growth potential. INSY looks good, but they also make fentanyl and that killed Prince....so fuck them.

Damn, at first glance they seem to have a somewhat solid foundation. Also trading under the middle mark of their 52 week price.

 

[Simpleman]

What the hell are going on with funds (C, S and I) the last week?! I thought they weresupposed to reflect the market? They are taking a beating in the last week.

 

[b00ts]

So after a lot of studying price and volume action. I've gotten a grasp on penny stocks and, well, most in general. Chart reading is my new hobby lol

 

[b00ts]

Watch LIGA on Monday. Expecting a test of support around .0025 or .0023 and then a further move up. I might actually look to snag a couple hundred thousand shares or so. Cautious, so I'm going to have to see what volume is doing. I put notes in the chart grids.

I called RNN breakout on the OG, but wasn't comfortable in my new found analysis yet.

 

[Hauler]

Watch LIGA on Monday. Expecting a test of support around .0025 or .0023 and then a further move up. I might actually look to snag a couple hundred thousand shares or so. Cautious, so I'm going to have to see what volume is doing. I put notes in the chart grids.

I called RNN breakout on the OG, but wasn't comfortable in my new found analysis yet.

Haha. Good luck bro. Penny stocks scare the shit out of me.
It would be cool to own 200,000 shares of a company though, no matter how worthless. Haha.

 

[b00ts]

Haha. Good luck bro. Penny stocks scare the shit out of me.
It would be cool to own 200,000 shares of a company though, no matter how worthless. Haha.

Haha yea no doubt they are risky. I think the confidence with them comes in when you actually know what is happening with the charts. Other than looking for a news piece as a catalyst, I don't think fundamental analysis is of much help. I've been studying volume analysis and applying it to old charts of penny stocks that had good breakouts. After a while, it just clicks. Well, for me at least. The next thing is to be able to see this in real time and determine whether it's a legit move or market makers trying to trap. It's all practice now. Next I'm going to learn order flow and combine it with what I've now learned to try my hand at day trading.

 

[b00ts]

I've evolved... I'm balls deep in this shit now. It's becoming an addiction.

 

[jasonhightower]

I've evolved... I'm balls deep in this shit now. It's becoming an addiction.

You may have answered this already, but what software are you using to do your analysis with?

 

[b00ts]

You may have answered this already, but what software are you using to do your analysis with?

I usually use TD Ameritrades thinkorswim for charting and trading, Simply Wallstreet researching on the value investing side, and what you quoted is my new learning... which is MarketDeltas software for using order flow to day trade futures.

 

[jasonhightower]

I usually use TD Ameritrades thinkorswim for charting and trading, Simply Wallstreet researching on the value investing side, and what you quoted is my new learning... which is MarketDeltas software for using order flow to day trade futures.

LOL, damn you really are in deep! I have a couple buddies who work at TDA. I'll have to ask them about this application. I can't use it personally since I work at a competing firm.

 

[b00ts]

LOL, damn you really are in deep! I have a couple buddies who work at TDA. I'll have to ask them about this application. I can't use it personally since I work at a competing firm.

I like TDA's thinkorswim, but MarketDelta is in a whole different universe. They use CQG data for charting, which is instant. I'm really liking the futures and hope to be able to practice day trading over the next year on my Thur and Fri off days in order to start day trading.

I would say for anyone new, learning about price and volume would be priority. I've learned order flow and can't see how I traded without it before.

 

[Wild]

Feds slowly to hike rates. Just a matter of time before we see a much needed correction IMO. I predict a 20% correction (minimum) over the next 12 months. Setting the over/under on the Dow @ 15700 between now at March 31, 2018.

 

[b00ts]

Feds slowly to hike rates. Just a matter of time before we see a much needed correction IMO. I predict a 20% correction (minimum) over the next 12 months. Setting the over/under on the Dow @ 15700 between now at March 31, 2018.

Yep and a lot of people will get burned. I'll only be looking to short for a while when it happens.

 

[jasonhightower]

Feds slowly to hike rates. Just a matter of time before we see a much needed correction IMO. I predict a 20% correction (minimum) over the next 12 months. Setting the over/under on the Dow @ 15700 between now at March 31, 2018.

That is pretty damn significant. I have been looking to move my 401k investments into a safe bond fund soon in hopes of hitting an index fund after the correction.