1> Do you think Europe would be so free from war with modern Russia without the USA covering NATO? Given the things about culture, familiarity,etc. you mentioned aren't the Eastern bloc countries already available to Russia influence...and isn't that a threat regardless? But specifically, is Europe stable from its inherent and internal institutions [without the USA institutions stabilizing it]?
No, NATO was and is a big reason, I even mentioned it in the same post, at least implying it. But war with an outside force in Russia has no influence on the argument of a world government creating internal wars, like western Europe did for millennia basically.
But lets not forget that a lot of what was established was not only done against Russia, but also to prevent Germany from becoming great again! Still is.
But I think it is stable as long as people don't fall for figureheads again. The problem will be (as it is on American soil), that new generations don't know how awful war on their homeland is. Thus the argument of being war-free is 'lesser' than it was after WW2.
But if we can stay away from extremists (and right extremists more so than left ones) or bubbleheads like Farage, I don't see Italy attacking Spain anytime soon.
2> Do you consider what would have happened if Syria occurred just 10 years later or so?
Its hard to predict really. The refugee crisis definitely has a big impact on the EU, its a big task it took on, and it probably was too much and too hastily done at least. But I could ask the same question about what if the financial crisis didn't happen?
What is the chance that Turkey got the momentum from 2008 onward when the UK, Italy, (USA even), etc were pushing hard from admission? Did the EU survive this because the institutions slowed Turkeys joining and a crisis made them show the truth, or was it just dumb luck on timing?
Or do you disagree maybe. Turkey in the EU would still be no big deal with the migrant crisis, Erdogan, etc. could all be absorbed and managed by the EU institutions in place?
I was always against Turkey joining under the circumstances. And I thought the expansion in general was too fast, creating problems.
Thing is, Turkey was never really close to joining up, it was more of a ploy imo. Which is shady, and I can understand Erdogan being pissed.