Withdrawing from the JCPOA is a huge unforced error and self-inflicted wound whose full costs we won’t realize until later, and it represents a serious setback to the cause of nonproliferation. Trump is walking away from a deal that got the U.S. almost everything it wanted at virtually no cost, and he is doing it mainly because it allows him to repudiate his predecessor’s work. It is a perfect example of putting petty self-interest and pique ahead of the interests of the United States, and it has absolutely nothing to do with putting America first.
Iran can now rid itself of all but the most basic nuclear inspections. As a member of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty Iran is required to accept a basic level of nuclear inspections. However, Iran had been under 24 hour, seven day a week surveillance at key sites, had hundreds of inspectors at its facilities and was prohibited from expanding its uranium enrichment work beyond 5,060 enrichment machines, having any uranium enriched beyond 3.67% (to make a bomb over 90% enrichment levels are needed), or possessing any more than 300 kilograms of uranium for 15 years (far less than needed for even one bomb). Iran, at any time and without any notification to the world, can now possess as many centrifuges and as much uranium at as high an enrichment level as it chooses. This could put it weeks away from building a nuclear weapon.
Several states have made it clear over the years that if Iran is able to build a nuclear weapon, they will do the same. Saudi Arabia's crown prince just told American reporters in March that his country would. Turkey, likewise, has indicated for years that it will match any capability Iran has. America reportedly deploys nuclear weapons in Turkey, and while we are told they are secure, the air base at which they are stored was a battle ground in the coup in Turkey in 2016. It is only a matter of time before there are multiple states with the ability to build nuclear weapons in the Middle East. We are likely to see a mobilization race that could make the origins of World War I seem cute by comparison. It is not clear how any of this makes America safer, let alone Israel.
America has led the effort to stop or slow proliferation for decades. We helped bring about the global legal regime that supports inspections, sanctions, verification and benefits for states who comply with their obligations. In this, we have been the essential state and provided leadership over both Democratic and Republican administrations and Congresses. After the invasion of Iraq over weapons of mass destruction that did not exist in 2003, the United States spent a decade working to restore our credibility and leadership. Trump just tore that up, too, and it will be hard, if not impossible, to ever restore that credibility.
It is not just all about nuclear weapons. When the American president gives his word or negotiates a deal, it has to mean something, or our leadership across a full range of complex global issues suffers. After withdrawing from the Paris climate change agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, America is more isolated in trade and climate science. Now, with the destruction of the Iran accord, America is further isolating itself on security affairs as well. Who would take any U.S. president's word for anything in the future? Fewer deals will be struck, costing America dearly.
“Depending on how severe and immediate U.S. withdrawal will turn out, the EU should establish procedures that allow European companies to trade with Iran to entice Tehran to stay in the deal,” said Cornelius Adebahr, a fellow at Carnegie Europe. "This includes setting up euro-denominated credit lines and clearing-houses that can green-light legitimate business with Iran."
Continuing to weaken US soft power and the dollar internationally.
Looks like this will make Trump's big donor, Sheldon Adelson, happy.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sCW4IasWXc&feature=youtu.be&t=18s
Trump’s Choice of Bolton Satisfies His Biggest Donor
