General Corona virus updates

Welcome to our Community
Wanting to join the rest of our members? Feel free to Sign Up today.
Sign up

sparkuri

Pulse On The Finger Of The Community
First 100
Jan 16, 2015
36,812
48,578
This was sent to me from a coworker. Thoughts Splinty @Splinty SC MMA MD @SC MMA MD ?


Taken from my friends page, she is a nurse at KGH and i felt this was all valuable information so I copied to share.

Best explanation I have read about the corona virus: Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand...

It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.

Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.

Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.

Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..

H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.

Fast forward.

Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”

This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.

And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs..

That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.

We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.

Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation...

And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.

Be smart folks... acting like you’re unafraid is so not sexy right now.

#flattenthecurve. Stay home folks... and share this to those that just are not catching on.

Stay safe and healthy my friends
Refer you co-worker to this thread for accurate information.
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
89,900
Just confused as to why this bug has been singled out.
Primary reason is complete lack of herd immunity and limited interventions at this time. And unlike others we missed the change to contain it ( BeardOfKnowledge @JonJonesBeard tell my man about CHI-NA)

The death rate for this can be 0.5% with some current social interventions like distancing and broad testing. It spreads easily because none of us have immunity and we don't have a vaccine. It's mild in lots of young people and it's spread before symptoms. So, in a long enough time line, 60%-70% of the world will get this without us singling it out.
Now in young groups less than 50, this is about as deadly as the flu for most (comparing to unvaccinated flu population and about 5x as dangerous as our typical vaccinated and healthcare supported population.) So if you are young and thinking that you don't need a flu shot, you need to realize this is pretty dangerous to do. And so is this current virus. And it's more dangerous than your usual route since those around you slow flu virus from spreading with their vaccinations. Sound good? Bad? Doesn't matter... Because the devil's in the details. It gets worse. 0.5%? Well that turns into 2-3% in most populations to do date that aren't responding heavily with testing, as you overwhelm medical systems with too many patients. So again, the lack of vaccine and lack of immunity means it's just the continuous zombie hoard disease. And in some dense initial onslaught we have seen local deaths spike to 15% until those people die off and the system catches up.
But wait, there's more...
~5% death in your parents.
~15% death in your grandparents.
Those two groups are the major concern. And while the disease might only kill 1-2% of us, the overwhelming the system kills the other 1-2% and that's a much lower age group than those the virus can kill normally. It is ALL the patients at once that is as much or more of a threat as the disease itself. And again, none of us have immunity from childhood and there isn't a vaccine yet. So that continued zombie crawl will just go until we are all infected if we don't do anything. Do nothing? let it ride? It will kill 15% of the people over 70 in the western style countries...in 3 months
It will kill 2% of us eventually (edit, probably 2% of 60% of us...that's about the low end of herd immunity catching up)

And if we all just stay the inside, work a social system that let's us go to a slow motion crawl for 4 weeks, followed by a 4 week taper and an 18 month public health campaign, you have a position where that death rate could decrease by 99.925% from the idea of just doing nothing and by 99.85% lower than the stuff the USA has been doing so far.
 

MartyLife

ยาเม็ดสีแดงหรือสีฟ้ายา?
Feb 7, 2020
1,840
1,623
Not sure if this has been poted, but California has just done it.
Perhaps great minds think alike? I have not read through this thread.
By tapping into the Universal Consciousness, enlightened beings can intuitively access the same great wisdom.
Now we just need to get the government to do the same and implement immediately before it's too late.


Namaste
oooh!

All California has just done the needful.

Gov. Gavin Newsom orders all Californians to stay at home


Good start.
Not quite a "Chinese Lockdown" (yet) but good start....

New York is rumored to be next?


Namaste
 

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
60,554
56,071
And unlike others we missed the change to contain it ( BeardOfKnowledge @JonJonesBeard tell my man about CHI-NA)
Bro, I'm so God damn tired of talking about China and what a bunch of selfish cunts they are (The government not the people) I think we need to maybe consider spreading a little democracy over that way.
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
89,900
Splinty @Splinty just curious... not trying to be a cunt.
What is the point in all this intervention?

The old must die of something. The young will gain immunity.
Why go bananas (and fuck the economy in the process) to try and slow this thing?
In this thread we've worked out a few things, but here's the high points from public models. None of this is my own modeling. Models can be wrong. But these are models that are publicly being used, so I only know to hop on them when a cohort says they are valid.

Do nothing = kill 4 million americans in 3 months
Do what we are currently doing = kill 2 million americans in 3 months.
Do the planned heavy intervention 4 weeks, 4 week taper, 18 months public health campaign for regional outbreaks = 100,000 over 18 months.

None of these higher death plans are economic positives. I do not know how to estimate how bad they are.

But we did calculate at some point in this thread... again just off public numbers, but this is napkin math...
800 billion dollars permanently lost for the heavy interventions (more temporary but that's gone and never coming back wealth). Dunno anything after the intial period...

But that comes out to be 66,000 USD for each of the 4 million lives saved.
That cost is 2300 bucks for every man woman and child in the USA to not be entered into some sort of dystopian virus lotter.

You can tell me what you think screws the economy the most? Seems like a cheap investment. We pay more per life in the hospital all the time.
 
M

member 3289

Guest
So the flu kills about .01% of people it infects, this kills about 3%. In the people who survive many receive what looks like it might be irreparable lung damage.
Over 8% mortality rate in Italy.

8 out of 100 is a lot of fucking people when you're talking about death
 
M

member 3289

Guest
I was painting the generally accepted overall picture, rather than the (second) worst case scenario reaction/outcome.
In the US we've got it under 1.5% but as you know the standards of hygiene in North America are simply much higher than those in Europe
 

BJTT_Kiwi

My member is more well known than yours
Jun 25, 2015
3,275
5,863
Thank you all.
Really appreciate the feedback, and common sense non-emotive commentary.

Of the 29 cases in NZ, 2 are connected to my kids school - parents tested positive, who have not been on school grounds.
 

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
60,554
56,071
Thank you all.
Really appreciate the feedback, and common sense non-emotive commentary.

Of the 29 cases in NZ, 2 are connected to my kids school - parents tested positive, who have not been on school grounds.
If they have it, it's very likely the kids also have it, if those kids have been to school they likely spread it to most of the people they were in contact with, and so on.
 
1

1372

Guest
Thank you all.
Really appreciate the feedback, and common sense non-emotive commentary.

Of the 29 cases in NZ, 2 are connected to my kids school - parents tested positive, who have not been on school grounds.

Could you imagine if this was the OH GEE?

Stay safe my man.
 
1

1372

Guest
I've been pretty much self isolating but I did go for work this morning...Stopped and got a pie...Called into a friends who has never left Australia to pick some seeds up and came home.

Maybe time for a sauna
 
1

1372

Guest
And by self isolating I mean staying home with not much contact...Apart from missus and not much else.
 

Rambo John J

Baker Team
First 100
Jan 17, 2015
73,894
73,407
Care to elaborate?
people die of illness or bodily failure daily in each state.

in some of these cases the person may have died with or without corona's help.

lady died here via heart attack(her 3rd one) tested positive for corona, so she is a corona death stat.

not downplaying anything, just a perspective on daily death in each state/region/country

almost 1700 die in italy daily from various causes for instance, I am talking pre corona