General Corona virus updates

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Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
89,915
Texas had real bad flu earlier, I wonder if this is what it was?
Splinty @Splinty we need answers when you aren't busy saving the world from the china flu virus.
So most people don't know that the USA keeps a real time tracking of "flu like illness" across the country in major hospitals. You come to the ED, you are flu like illness, we add a +1 to a database. We also report positive flu test.
So this is important for flu tracking and efficacy data. It also helps us catch virus outbreaks early. Like a Wuhan would have show up with a huge increase in flu like illnesses and the CDC would go wtf mate and check it out.

So here are flu cases for the season. Up then down. Season ending.



Here are flu like illnesses at the same time



Up then down...then up again. wtf.
That's the Seattle region on March 15 with their outbreak.


So what if I saw that happening other places before testing showed coronavirus. Sure it could be another virus outbreak, but you have to assume coronavirus. And even better, what if I had historical norms to see if this year was weird compared to lots of previous years....then I'd feel even more that we had some coronavirus outbreak and not just some ramp up of parainfluenza or something.

Well here you go:


Flu like illness...
March 13 2020

Red line is H1N1 2009...a weird year. And that is partly how they caught the virus outbreak for tracking and control.
Gray lines are historical years. So you can see what's the usual trend.
Black line is this year. Now HHS10. That's seattle. See the uptrend that doesn't match history?

What is happening in HHS7? There were no cases there at the time.





I don't have new data on this for today's date, but I'm waiting. Either way same idea. If Texas had a significant coronavirus outbreak you'd expect to see an uptick in flu like illnesses over the historical norm. Texas is in HHS6 and while we do see a high amount of activity it appears to follow the general trend. So doesn't look like a lot of evidence for long standing coronavirus in Texas as of March 13.

Dr Caitlin Rivers PhD does this stuff and you should follow her: Caitlin Rivers, PhD (@cmyeaton) on Twitter
 
M

member 1013

Guest
So most people don't know that the USA keeps a real time tracking of "flu like illness" across the country in major hospitals. You come to the ED, you are flu like illness, we add a +1 to a database. We also report positive flu test.
So this is important for flu tracking and efficacy data. It also helps us catch virus outbreaks early. Like a Wuhan would have show up with a huge increase in flu like illnesses and the CDC would go wtf mate and check it out.

So here are flu cases for the season. Up then down. Season ending.



Here are flu like illnesses at the same time



Up then down...then up again. wtf.
That's the Seattle region on March 15 with their outbreak.


So what if I saw that happening other places before testing showed coronavirus. Sure it could be another virus outbreak, but you have to assume coronavirus. And even better, what if I had historical norms to see if this year was weird compared to lots of previous years....then I'd feel even more that we had some coronavirus outbreak and not just some ramp up of parainfluenza or something.

Well here you go:


Flu like illness...
March 13 2020

Red line is H1N1 2009...a weird year. And that is partly how they caught the virus outbreak for tracking and control.
Gray lines are historical years. So you can see what's the usual trend.
Black line is this year. Now HHS10. That's seattle. See the uptrend that doesn't match history?

What is happening in HHS7? There were no cases there at the time.





I don't have new data on this for today's date, but I'm waiting. Either way same idea. If Texas had a significant coronavirus outbreak you'd expect to see an uptick in flu like illnesses over the historical norm. Texas is in HHS6 and while we do see a high amount of activity it appears to follow the general trend. So doesn't look like a lot of evidence for long standing coronavirus in Texas as of March 13.

Dr Caitlin Rivers PhD does this stuff and you should follow her: Caitlin Rivers, PhD (@cmyeaton) on Twitter
Did you see I broke into Canada’s Area 51?
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
89,915
More data:
March 20.
Influenza illnesses with negative flu tests going up all over. I do not have this recent date overlaid with historical trends. But it is worrisome.

 

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
60,634
56,163
More data:
March 20.
Influenza illnesses with negative flu tests going up all over. I do not have this recent date overlaid with historical trends. But it is worrisome.
So, does that America is actually farther along in the pandemic than first thought?
 
M

member 1013

Guest
whats that? Like an American Area 32?
Yeah

its where we keep OUR space aliens

they’re similar to yours, most people can’t even tell them apart. But they are nicer with better manners, education and healthcare.
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
89,915
So, does that America is actually farther along in the pandemic than first thought?
I've got no way to parse out stats on those ILI being anything more than trends, not quanitity you can compare to another quantity taken with a different methodology.

BUT what if you have an area that shows no significant coronavirus positive test and especially if they aren't testing much (as we aren't) then those up swings are highly suspicious for active coronavirus infections that are just not being tested.

When we had NONE in most states a couple weeks ago but influenza illnesses started going up in some places, I would hazard a guess that was coronavirus.
So all you can compare is trends.
You'd need someone PhD smart to run some models to estimate how many untested positives are really out there right now.
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
44,116
89,915
Yeah

its where we keep OUR space aliens

they’re similar to yours, most people can’t even tell them apart. But they are nicer with better manners, education and healthcare.
Do your aliens seize power during times of crisis and dress in black face?