General Corona virus updates

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Filthy

Iowa Wrestling Champion
Jun 28, 2016
27,507
29,834
The weird part about pandemics is that on an individual level, it probably would have been more rational to go bug chasing two weeks ago than try and protect yourself from the virus. This is a fallacy of composition situation of course - if everyone did it, we'd all be screwed.

But if the virus fucks you up in three weeks, you may be in a situation where finite ventilators means a death panel essentially decides your fate whereas right now you're at least not going to be left to die.

There's a window of death for at-risk people. Avoiding getting the virus is obviously the best option as treatment/vaccines appear. But seems the safest odds were getting the virus early and taking your chances.

What I'm saying, as always, the smartest solution is unfortunately the attitude of 'fuck you, got mine' in this case 'mine' means already being infected by a weird Chinese bat virus.
it's like if someone went to LegoLand and Disneyland in the week before the shutdown, they were really maximizing their positive outcome potential. Either they've already had it, and are immune, so the lower crowds is just awesome. Or they get it, and they're first in line for the ventilator.

the trick is to be prepared to completely isolate for the 4-7 weeks it takes for the rest of the population to get their shit together. Getting sick later means that you have access to all of the information gleaned during the steep learning curve of people getting sick in the initial wave.

genius.
 

Rambo John J

Eats things that would make a Billy Goat Puke
First 100
Jan 17, 2015
71,542
71,466
not to just call people names, but there's documented virus shedding in people at least 4 weeks after symptom onset.
I just don't see how this can be the peak, and hold with a model where the cases double every 2.2 days
I would speculate that it may have been widespread months ago.

Herd immunity is possibly already in place in some parts of the country.

Testing is inconsistent and the asymptomatic are not part of the equation or data...I don't see much of it in this thread, but reports of a large percentage of false positives are out there.

Some people want this to be worse than it is, and some are being optimistic.

The guy predicted 500K and is walking that back.

could be that he's prompting Pompeo to hit the talking point about "the Chinese should have told the world" e.g "they should've let us know."
Of course it could, that is why I asked what people make of it...it is interesting.
 

Thuglife13

✝👦🍕🍦🍩
Dec 15, 2018
20,385
27,213
How will trump continue to say he is handling this well when Americas numbers surpass China? Kind of embarrassing to call the China virus when USA numbers are worse than China numbers are per capita.

third time this has been posted
Stop sucking China's dick. That's where it came from and the world is suffering thanks to them...
 

Filthy

Iowa Wrestling Champion
Jun 28, 2016
27,507
29,834
I would speculate that it may have been widespread months ago.

Herd immunity is possibly already in place in some parts of the country.

Testing is inconsistent and the asymptomatic are not part of the equation or data...I
don't see much of it in this thread, but reports a large percentage of false positives are out there.

Some people want this to be worse than it is, and some are being optimistic.
there's nothing wrong with being optimistic. I'm not optimistic that we're going to get the best advice from our 'leaders'. And when there's uncertainty in the data, it helps to look at the worst-case probable if you're wrong in either direction. The thing about insufficient testing is that it drives both the numerator AND the denominator in the Case Fatality Ratio. In Italy, they found that in the first month after the first official death, there was a big increase in the number of dead, but only about a third of that spike was officially COVID19. They weren't looking. But we're talking about something that doubles in cases ever 2ish days (i'll say 2, but it's a little more).

Every 2 days you add more people than the sum of all previous intervals. That's how that function works. When you have active virus shedding up to 7 weeks after someone is symptomatic, i don't see how you can claim that there's this giant population that's acquired herd immunity, but this insane spike in required emergency care is just now apparent.

It might be less fatal, I'm confident that it is...but to claim that it is several orders of magnitude lower doesn't jive with the reality on the ground.
And the consequence of being wrong in one direction is economic. And if we're real about the consequence, it's that there will be different CEOs and Board members at a lot of these companies.

the consequence of being wrong the other way is literally orders of magnitude more dead people.
We should be optimistic, but only move in the direction of risk when the risk has been quantified.
 

Freeloading Rusty

Here comes Rover, sniffin’ at your ass
Jan 11, 2016
26,916
26,743
Stop sucking China's dick. That's where it came from and the world is suffering thanks to them...
Yes, it originated in China. No one is disputing that.

Why did it hit America so much harder? Per capita wise, America has taking a shit kicking.
 

Rambo John J

Eats things that would make a Billy Goat Puke
First 100
Jan 17, 2015
71,542
71,466
there's nothing wrong with being optimistic. I'm not optimistic that we're going to get the best advice from our 'leaders'. And when there's uncertainty in the data, it helps to look at the worst-case probable if you're wrong in either direction. The thing about insufficient testing is that it drives both the numerator AND the denominator in the Case Fatality Ratio. In Italy, they found that in the first month after the first official death, there was a big increase in the number of dead, but only about a third of that spike was officially COVID19. They weren't looking. But we're talking about something that doubles in cases ever 2ish days (i'll say 2, but it's a little more).

Every 2 days you add more people than the sum of all previous intervals. That's how that function works. When you have active virus shedding up to 7 weeks after someone is symptomatic, i don't see how you can claim that there's this giant population that's acquired herd immunity, but this insane spike in required emergency care is just now apparent.

It might be less fatal, I'm confident that it is...but to claim that it is several orders of magnitude lower doesn't jive with the reality on the ground.
And the consequence of being wrong in one direction is economic. And if we're real about the consequence, it's that there will be different CEOs and Board members at a lot of these companies.

the consequence of being wrong the other way is literally orders of magnitude more dead people.
We should be optimistic, but only move in the direction of risk when the risk has been quantified.
you make some good points and arguments

I respect your opinion
 

Thuglife13

✝👦🍕🍦🍩
Dec 15, 2018
20,385
27,213
Yes, it originated in China. No one is disputing that.

Why did it hit America so much harder? Per capita wise, America has taking a shit kicking.
That's above my pay grade sir but I don't think any of us can trust what China's putting out now in terms of deaths and such...