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it's like if someone went to LegoLand and Disneyland in the week before the shutdown, they were really maximizing their positive outcome potential. Either they've already had it, and are immune, so the lower crowds is just awesome. Or they get it, and they're first in line for the ventilator.
the trick is to be prepared to completely isolate for the 4-7 weeks it takes for the rest of the population to get their shit together. Getting sick later means that you have access to all of the information gleaned during the steep learning curve of people getting sick in the initial wave.
genius.
Jackson Browne has the shit
not to just call people names, but there's documented virus shedding in people at least 4 weeks after symptom onset.
I just don't see how this can be the peak, and hold with a model where the cases double every 2.2 days
could be that he's prompting Pompeo to hit the talking point about "the Chinese should have told the world" e.g "they should've let us know."
"Doctor My Lungs"?
I would speculate that it may have been widespread months ago.
Herd immunity is possibly already in place in some parts of the country.
Testing is inconsistent and the asymptomatic are not part of the equation or data...I don't see much of it in this thread, but reports of a large percentage of false positives are out there.
Some people want this to be worse than it is, and some are being optimistic.
The guy predicted 500K and is walking that back.
Of course it could, that is why I asked what people make of it...it is interesting.
How will trump continue to say he is handling this well when Americas numbers surpass China’s (underreported) numbers?
third time this has been posted
Stop sucking China's dick. That's where it came from and the world is suffering thanks to them...
there's nothing wrong with being optimistic. I'm not optimistic that we're going to get the best advice from our 'leaders'. And when there's uncertainty in the data, it helps to look at the worst-case probable if you're wrong in either direction. The thing about insufficient testing is that it drives both the numerator AND the denominator in the Case Fatality Ratio. In Italy, they found that in the first month after the first official death, there was a big increase in the number of dead, but only about a third of that spike was officially COVID19. They weren't looking. But we're talking about something that doubles in cases ever 2ish days (i'll say 2, but it's a little more).
Every 2 days you add more people than the sum of all previous intervals. That's how that function works. When you have active virus shedding up to 7 weeks after someone is symptomatic, i don't see how you can claim that there's this giant population that's acquired herd immunity, but this insane spike in required emergency care is just now apparent.
It might be less fatal, I'm confident that it is...but to claim that it is several orders of magnitude lower doesn't jive with the reality on the ground.
And the consequence of being wrong in one direction is economic. And if we're real about the consequence, it's that there will be different CEOs and Board members at a lot of these companies.
the consequence of being wrong the other way is literally orders of magnitude more dead people.
We should be optimistic, but only move in the direction of risk when the risk has been quantified.
Yes, it originated in China. No one is disputing that.
Why did it hit America so much harder? Per capita wise, America has taking a shit kicking.
That's above my pay grade sir but I don't think any of us can trust what China's putting out now in terms of deaths and such...
Ok even if China is king... America is playing the 2nd fiddle in this orchestra.
