General Corona virus updates

Discussion in 'The Off-topic Lounge' started by 4070, Feb 6, 2020.

  1. Dr. Prosper Meniere

    Dr. Prosper Meniere Do you want to bet against me?

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    The weird part about pandemics is that on an individual level, it probably would have been more rational to go bug chasing two weeks ago than try and protect yourself from the virus. This is a fallacy of composition situation of course - if everyone did it, we'd all be screwed.

    But if the virus fucks you up in three weeks, you may be in a situation where finite ventilators means a death panel essentially decides your fate whereas right now you're at least not going to be left to die.

    There's a window of death for at-risk people. Avoiding getting the virus is obviously the best option as treatment/vaccines appear. But seems the safest odds were getting the virus early and taking your chances.

    What I'm saying, as always, the smartest solution is unfortunately the attitude of 'fuck you, got mine' in this case 'mine' means already being infected by a weird Chinese bat virus.
     
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  2. ShatsBassoon

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  3. ShatsBassoon

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  4. ShatsBassoon

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  5. Miesha's Taint

    Miesha's Taint VLOGGER

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  6. Brian Ortega's Goon Hand

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    it's like if someone went to LegoLand and Disneyland in the week before the shutdown, they were really maximizing their positive outcome potential. Either they've already had it, and are immune, so the lower crowds is just awesome. Or they get it, and they're first in line for the ventilator.

    the trick is to be prepared to completely isolate for the 4-7 weeks it takes for the rest of the population to get their shit together. Getting sick later means that you have access to all of the information gleaned during the steep learning curve of people getting sick in the initial wave.

    genius.
     
  7. Brian Ortega's Goon Hand

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    you look like a lemur guy.

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  8. Splinty

    Splinty Shake 'em off
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  9. Thuglife13

    Thuglife13 Exotic Forever, Forever Exotic

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  10. Megaterio Llamas

    Megaterio Llamas Vigorously working member
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  11. Thuglife13

    Thuglife13 Exotic Forever, Forever Exotic

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  12. Willthiswork

    Willthiswork I'd rather have 4 quarters than 100 pennies.

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  13. Hong Kong Phooey

    Hong Kong Phooey Spreading The Coronavirus one Corona at a Time

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    Jackson Browne has the shit
     
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  14. Inside Job

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  15. Inside Job

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  16. Brian Ortega's Goon Hand

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  17. Thuglife13

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  18. Brian Ortega's Goon Hand

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    could be that he's prompting Pompeo to hit the talking point about "the Chinese should have told the world" e.g "they should've let us know."
     
  19. Brian Ortega's Goon Hand

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    "Doctor My Lungs"?
     
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  20. Inside Job

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    I would speculate that it may have been widespread months ago.

    Herd immunity is possibly already in place in some parts of the country.

    Testing is inconsistent and the asymptomatic are not part of the equation or data...I don't see much of it in this thread, but reports of a large percentage of false positives are out there.

    Some people want this to be worse than it is, and some are being optimistic.

    The guy predicted 500K and is walking that back.

    Of course it could, that is why I asked what people make of it...it is interesting.
     
  21. MC Gusto

    MC Gusto And now I wanna be your dog

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    How will trump continue to say he is handling this well when Americas numbers surpass China’s (underreported) numbers?
    third time this has been posted
     
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  22. Thuglife13

    Thuglife13 Exotic Forever, Forever Exotic

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    Stop sucking China's dick. That's where it came from and the world is suffering thanks to them...
     
  23. MC Gusto

    MC Gusto And now I wanna be your dog

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  24. Brian Ortega's Goon Hand

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    there's nothing wrong with being optimistic. I'm not optimistic that we're going to get the best advice from our 'leaders'. And when there's uncertainty in the data, it helps to look at the worst-case probable if you're wrong in either direction. The thing about insufficient testing is that it drives both the numerator AND the denominator in the Case Fatality Ratio. In Italy, they found that in the first month after the first official death, there was a big increase in the number of dead, but only about a third of that spike was officially COVID19. They weren't looking. But we're talking about something that doubles in cases ever 2ish days (i'll say 2, but it's a little more).

    Every 2 days you add more people than the sum of all previous intervals. That's how that function works. When you have active virus shedding up to 7 weeks after someone is symptomatic, i don't see how you can claim that there's this giant population that's acquired herd immunity, but this insane spike in required emergency care is just now apparent.

    It might be less fatal, I'm confident that it is...but to claim that it is several orders of magnitude lower doesn't jive with the reality on the ground.
    And the consequence of being wrong in one direction is economic. And if we're real about the consequence, it's that there will be different CEOs and Board members at a lot of these companies.

    the consequence of being wrong the other way is literally orders of magnitude more dead people.
    We should be optimistic, but only move in the direction of risk when the risk has been quantified.
     
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  25. MC Gusto

    MC Gusto And now I wanna be your dog

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    Yes, it originated in China. No one is disputing that.

    Why did it hit America so much harder? Per capita wise, America has taking a shit kicking.
     
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