Around 0.2% death for modern estiamtes at the population level with that skewed up for kids and elederly.
Thanks for the evaluation Doc...I have neither anger or depression and zero fear.
lmao
I will be cancelling my further appointments with your practice
I agree. And the way that you show you're ready to open up is to take precautions and modify the way you live to mitigate the VERY REAL risk of causing a public health emergency - because that would also cause a Great Depression, and lot more serious one than a lockdown will cause. But if you aren't adapting your behavior to mitigate risk, then what you're doing is telling me that you're right to live your life trumps the rights of millions of others to have a life.
Anybody who says "it's no worse than the flu" is either retarded or putting their own self-interest over public health. It's really that simple.
to not have some fear at this point would be completely irrational. It's how you cope with your fear and direct it towards a positive outcome.
also, my rates are going up.
Comparing to COVID19...
Primary reason is complete lack of herd immunity and limited interventions at this time. And unlike others we missed the change to contain it (@JonJonesBeard tell my man about CHI-NA)
The death rate for this can be 0.5% with some current social interventions like distancing and broad testing. It spreads easily because none of us have immunity and we don't have a vaccine. It's mild in lots of young people and it's spread before symptoms. So, in a long enough time line, 60%-70% of the world will get this without us singling it out.
Now in young groups less than 50, this is about as deadly as the flu for most (comparing to unvaccinated flu population and about 5x as dangerous as our typical vaccinated and healthcare supported population.) So if you are young and thinking that you don't need a flu shot, you need to realize this is pretty dangerous to do. And so is this current virus. And it's more dangerous than your usual route since those around you slow flu virus from spreading with their vaccinations. Sound good? Bad? Doesn't matter... Because the devil's in the details. It gets worse. 0.5%? Well that turns into 2-3% in most populations to do date that aren't responding heavily with testing, as you overwhelm medical systems with too many patients. So again, the lack of vaccine and lack of immunity means it's just the continuous zombie hoard disease. And in some dense initial onslaught we have seen local deaths spike to 15% until those people die off and the system catches up.
But wait, there's more...
~5% death in your parents.
~15% death in your grandparents.
Those two groups are the major concern. And while the disease might only kill 1-2% of us, the overwhelming the system kills the other 1-2% and that's a much lower age group than those the virus can kill normally. It is ALL the patients at once that is as much or more of a threat as the disease itself. And again, none of us have immunity from childhood and there isn't a vaccine yet. So that continued zombie crawl will just go until we are all infected if we don't do anything. Do nothing? let it ride? It will kill 15% of the people over 70 in the western style countries...in 3 months
It will kill 2% of us eventually (edit, probably 2% of 60% of us...that's about the low end of herd immunity catching up)
And if we all just stay the inside, work a social system that let's us go to a slow motion crawl for 4 weeks, followed by a 4 week taper and an 18 month public health campaign, you have a position where that death rate could decrease by 99.925% from the idea of just doing nothing and by 99.85% lower than the stuff the USA has been doing so far.
Heavy S Korea interventions (2-3 temp checks while heading to work, a younger population than America, the largest testing campaign, experience with SARS) or American style full lockdown (unsustainable and not intended for longterm)... COVID19 then becomes 2-3x more dangerous than normal society walking around with access to flu shots at the population level (COVID19 is much more dangerous to 50+ and less dangerous than flu for under 18). It's really disingenuous to just say the final death rate outcomes are close since it takes so much more to get those closer numbers.
Likewise, if we come up with a great drug or other interventions, the you will see COVID19 mortality go lower.
I'd guess over 5%.
I mentioned the death rate dropping from previous estimates according to some studies and random testing.
That is all I did.
Make no mistake though that Great depression is real as shit and is already beginning.
I am not putting people at risk, I just think that folks should have the option to decide how much risk they want in their lives.
your rates?
Do I wanna catch a virus and die? no Am I living in fear of a virus? no I am distancing and washing my hands like a good boy, not licking doorhandles.
I am extremely positive towards all I interact with, and I respect all the various opinions and concerns...that is how I roll.
My text and typing doesn't always convey this, I am aware of that.
duly noted
I hope you are incorrect for all of our sake
United States
Coronavirus Cases:
953,918
Deaths:
53,858
What percent is that?
Those are numbers. Not "our study suggests". Or "we think".....
I keep hearing this, but there's a big factor that played into the great depression that people are either unaware of or ignoring.
It's just a huge spread. Kids almost never die. Old people die at a Russian roulette rate. The spread is really big so its hard to just reference the population as a homogenous entity.
I should only have about a 0.2% risk with social distancing (not full lockdown mitigation) and US level testing.
American young people seem to die at a higher rate than Asian young people (we are also fatter, soo??).
30-50% asymptomatic in the general population. But that means a fast spread without interventions. That lowers your mortality rate. But it also forces interventions to prevent the deaths of groups with true 10+% death rates.
There's some early data suggesting a dose dependent inoculation process. Get more viral load up front = get worse disease. So you see ER docs dying at an abnormal rate and people think that might be why.
We know Germany and S Korea have lower rates than us at the population level. They are doing a better job on the rate of spread, testing, isolating,
Didn't they hear about what happened after the parade during the flu pandemic?
5% ish obviously
United States
Coronavirus Cases:
953,918
Deaths:
53,858
What percent is that?
Those are numbers. Not "our study suggests". Or "we think".....
I think that many more have been exposed...millions to tens of millions...so that would change the figure of course
Not trying to piss you off FYI...just honest discussion
fair enough
I just know the repercussions are just beginning
I don't think it is an if a depression will happen question anymore, just a how severe.
I can understand that thought as a foundation, but what is your thought on TB patients?
Did you know that TB patients can be forced into a hospital to finish their treatments by county health departments in most states? Do you think that's okay?
it's a lot easier to recover from an economic depression that comes from an artificial work restriction, as opposed to one that comes from a Mass Death event.
In this case, we have government's willing to spend money to keep people off the streets, not saying it's great by any stretch, but probably enough to result in widespread mass poverty, we also *knock on wood* don't have the dust bowl to contend with.
Did you know that a TB patient can give it to you by just breathing he same air as you? Literally airborne.
If they won't quarantine on their own, do you have any rights in that situation? Should you? Or is disease just something that is all around us? Even if we can stop you from getting infected or you killing others, we shouldn't?
This is a true opinion. Not a right answer. There are moral and ethical question constantly at play on this.
All I can say is it is a mess.