show me the death rate approaching the seasonal flu.
hands are too big.
giving these guys input on our Pandemic Response is like asking the manager of the local Jiffy Lube if Ford should be using Dynamic Systems Development Method or Feature Driven Development to bring their next generation of in-car infotainment to market.
We've left this behind so far long ago it's not even funny.
Suggesting "this is close to the flu" completely ignores that 1> its not 2> the details on sub population threat.
a couple studies in different locations are coming to similar numbers...projections of course because there is still very little random testing
need more data
Stanford study: More than 48K Santa Clara County residents have likely been infected by coronavirus
"As of April 10, the study notes, 50 people in Santa Clara County had died of COVID-19 in the county, with an average increase of 6% daily in the number of deaths. Given the trajectory, the study estimates that the county will see about 100 deaths by April 22.
Given the study's estimate of 48,000 to 81,000 infections in early April – and a three-week lag from infection to death – the 100 deaths suggest that the infection fatality rate is between 0.12% and 0.2%.
That's a far contrast from the county's mortality rate based on official cases and deaths as of April 17 -- 3.9%."
Primary reason is complete lack of herd immunity and limited interventions at this time. And unlike others we missed the change to contain it (@JonJonesBeard tell my man about CHI-NA)
The death rate for this can be 0.5% with some current social interventions like distancing and broad testing. It spreads easily because none of us have immunity and we don't have a vaccine. It's mild in lots of young people and it's spread before symptoms. So, in a long enough time line, 60%-70% of the world will get this without us singling it out.
Now in young groups less than 50, this is about as deadly as the flu for most (comparing to unvaccinated flu population and about 5x as dangerous as our typical vaccinated and healthcare supported population.) So if you are young and thinking that you don't need a flu shot, you need to realize this is pretty dangerous to do. And so is this current virus. And it's more dangerous than your usual route since those around you slow flu virus from spreading with their vaccinations. Sound good? Bad? Doesn't matter... Because the devil's in the details. It gets worse. 0.5%? Well that turns into 2-3% in most populations to do date that aren't responding heavily with testing, as you overwhelm medical systems with too many patients. So again, the lack of vaccine and lack of immunity means it's just the continuous zombie hoard disease. And in some dense initial onslaught we have seen local deaths spike to 15% until those people die off and the system catches up.
But wait, there's more...
~5% death in your parents.
~15% death in your grandparents.
Those two groups are the major concern. And while the disease might only kill 1-2% of us, the overwhelming the system kills the other 1-2% and that's a much lower age group than those the virus can kill normally. It is ALL the patients at once that is as much or more of a threat as the disease itself. And again, none of us have immunity from childhood and there isn't a vaccine yet. So that continued zombie crawl will just go until we are all infected if we don't do anything. Do nothing? let it ride? It will kill 15% of the people over 70 in the western style countries...in 3 months
It will kill 2% of us eventually (edit, probably 2% of 60% of us...that's about the low end of herd immunity catching up)
And if we all just stay the inside, work a social system that let's us go to a slow motion crawl for 4 weeks, followed by a 4 week taper and an 18 month public health campaign, you have a position where that death rate could decrease by 99.925% from the idea of just doing nothing and by 99.85% lower than the stuff the USA has been doing so far.
Over a month ago.
well it isn't 3 % or 8 % either is it?
that was thrown about a lot in this thread awhile back
the Stanford study was retracted last week for being complete bullshit.
USC study used the same garbage antibody kits and non-random sample.
Both are shit.
How bad would the flu be if we didn’t have a flu shot?
haha
OK then show me the good study and the good test kits? do they even exist?
what about the NY study? is it also Bullshit?
well then I am pretty sure any study or data I post will be "shit"
so I guess we have nothing to talk about
have a good day filthy
Mortality rate is directly related to demographic and rate of infection. Stop ignoring the latter point when subtly implying the disease isn't that dangerous. It's not THAT dangerous to most 40 and unders. But that still isn't a fix because without social interventions you pull in the much higher mortality rate and system overloads that increase the mortality rate of the younger crowd and infect the older crowd (even when they stay home mostly). Referencing flu doesn't accurately describe the threat of either group or the population.
It's not an opinion. It's a straight executive summary of American data to date.
the problem with the test kits is that they aren't very accurate, so you need a huge random sample size. Nobody is approaching 98-99%, and that's what you need with a population of 3k.
look at overall deaths and tell me this like a little extra flu.
agree to disagree
not trying to be disrespectful or start shit
the data is not pure IMO
There are just straight data here. This isn't really an opinion thing. There are numbers showing math.
This started because I didn't find those two guys in your video to be "retards".
I stand by that.
If they want to open then I think it should be between the health care provider and the patient.
If the Doc or the patient doesn't want to put themselves at risk then don't, if they do then they should be allowed.
I think you're moving from Anger towards Depression, fren. There's lots of good news out there. Social distancing is working, masks work, HCL shows promise when administered early...we lost the old Normal, but we're winning the new Normal.