Bernie Sanders is an exception but it also partly explains why he hasn't been able to secure his party's nomination in two straight electionsThere's no honor in politics, never has been
they're confusing optimism with data.Not downplaying anything but we do need balanced viewpoints from experts to gain full perspective
https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/28...CJ7jrWMC1ljf-vgPMd3jGDu44SQs7gzug6syIbDVSzIxJ
"Importantly, the results we present here suggest the ongoing epidemics in the UK and Italy started at least a month before the first reported death and have already led to the accumulation of significant levels of herd immunity in both countries. There is an inverse relationship between the proportion currently immune and the fraction of the population vulnerable to severe disease."
– Fundamental principles of epidemic spread highlight the immediate need for large-scale serological surveys to assess the stage of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, 24th March 2020
"[P]rojections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high […] The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.
The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills two million.
[…]
A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns."
“Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?”, Wall Street Journal, 24th March 2020
Time will tellthey're confusing optimism with data.
the relevant skill is being able to analyze trends and determine how far before or after the inflection point we are on a logistics curve.Time will tell
I think that is certainly true about part of their message and statements.
But the data is also being used by some to fuel pessimistic predictions as well(I think you disagree about this but that is my belief)
It is likely that truth lies somewhere in the middle between the extremes
Because you can't trust the story coming from the Chinese government.Can anybody answer my question.
How come in China it didn't leave wuhan and infect other provinces in china?, but Infected the whole world.
I say they sent infected people to other parts of the world.
I hear yathe relevant skill is being able to analyze trends and determine how far before or after the inflection point we are on a logistics curve.
everything else is meaningless spin. All of the data I've seen indicates that it will be awhile before we hit the inflection point.
Can anybody answer my question.
How come in China it didn't leave wuhan and infect other provinces in china?, but Infected the whole world.
I say they sent infected people to other parts of the world.
Both are trueBecause you can't trust the story coming from the Chinese government.
agree, but the only way to support their assumption is with tests that aren't being done yet, seralogical tests to show which people have antibodies. But mathematically, I don't see how it's possible to have this presumptive herd immunity when we have a population of infected that's doubling every 3 days. There's just not enough people in the sum of every previous iteration, even if we assume 50% of the people who get it never know they have it, to generate that much herd immunity. There would be spikes in other areas of medical care...'not looking' doesn't explain 3 or more orders of magnitude between measured and assumed.I hear ya
different countries and possible even different states are producing data in different ways
Some are not attributing a death by an unhealthy and/or elderly person who is positive for corona to corona...some are attributing any hospital stay and any death by a person with corona positive to be due to corona. In that way the data is harder to crunch and rely upon.
Regardless I think full on pessimism isn't healthy, same for blind optimism.
I merely posted a link to some "experts" discussing their view of the reaction...Experts have a wide array of opinions of this event and they are all using some form of Data to come to those conclusions.
Pessimistic predictions are also the safe play.But the data is also being used by some to fuel pessimistic predictions as well
right on, I hear yaagree, but the only way to support their assumption is with tests that aren't being done yet, seralogical tests to show which people have antibodies. But mathematically, I don't see how it's possible to have this presumptive herd immunity when we have a population of infected that's doubling every 3 days. There's just not enough people in the sum of every previous iteration, even if we assume 50% of the people who get it never know they have it, to generate that much herd immunity. There would be spikes in other areas of medical care...'not looking' doesn't explain 3 or more orders of magnitude between measured and assumed.
UnrealWell.. At least we know that our great President is focused on what really matters
View: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1244320571653074951?s=20
haha, I hear yaPessimistic predictions are also the safe play.
You could pitch to Barry Bonds when he was fully juiced, batting .380, and slugging a million with runners on 2nd and 3rd or you could walk him and pitch to Jeff Kent who was a talented hitter but not the monster that Bonds was.
Getting people to pay attention by talking about how bad it could be and trying to get them to keep their asses at home as much as possible is akin to walking Bonds. Kent may still beat you but it's probably better than letting Bonds hit one into the water in right field.
Because China full of shitCan anybody answer my question.
How come in China it didn't leave wuhan and infect other provinces in china?, but Infected the whole world.
I say they sent infected people to other parts of the world.
They are probably cured, but passed on their dirty slimy germs.How
Many chineseses do you guys think actually have it
China quarantined Wuhan. @Splinty talked about it before, China is pretending like it's under control, but really they're just going to make it worse. Again.Can anybody answer my question.
How come in China it didn't leave wuhan and infect other provinces in china?, but Infected the whole world.
I say they sent infected people to other parts of the world.