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Saloth Sar

Let's take a little trip to the countryside
Dec 1, 2015
6,141
10,310
Austrlia definitely avoided the double whammy that Saloth Sar @Saloth Sar had predicted. I dont see why other places can't do the same. If something decreases spread of respiratory illnesses it should work for all of them.
Nobody is arguing that, mete. The double whammy concern was based on a scenario where long-term wholescale measures to combat coronavirus were not implemente. It was back when 'flattening the curve' was all the rage, and restrictions were supposed to just be a temporary measure to stop hospitals getting overrun. It was not a concern once we'd gone full North Korea in Winter.

A search shows that the only time I used the phrase 'double whammy', was from March, when lockdowns had only just begun, in response to Splinty tagging me about it, basically just saying that flu season would screw Melbourne.

In the same post I said summer would NOT save the US like some were predicting. I was right. Just like I was right that winter would fuck Melbourne. Just like I am again right that winter will fuck the northern hemisphere. Because I am the god damn coronavirus rain maker, son.

This stuff is pretty easy to understand. Winter = Flu season = more coronavirus spreading.
 

Thor Georgeos

God of Funder
Jul 22, 2015
36,309
34,616
Nobody is arguing that, mete. The double whammy concern was based on a scenario where long-term wholescale measures to combat coronavirus were not implemente. It was back when 'flattening the curve' was all the rage, and restrictions were supposed to just be a temporary measure to stop hospitals getting overrun. It was not a concern once we'd gone full North Korea in Winter.

A search shows that the only time I used the phrase 'double whammy', was from March, when lockdowns had only just begun, in response to Splinty tagging me about it, basically just saying that flu season would screw Melbourne.

In the same post I said summer would NOT save the US like some were predicting. I was right. Just like I was right that winter would fuck Melbourne. Just like I am again right that winter will fuck the northern hemisphere. Because I am the god damn coronavirus rain maker, son.

This stuff is pretty easy to understand. Winter = Flu season = more coronavirus spreading.
Flu season didn't screw Melbourne, mate. Although the mental gymnastics you're attempting to avoid admitting that your covid/flu/winter prediction were flat wrong is impressive.
 

Saloth Sar

Let's take a little trip to the countryside
Dec 1, 2015
6,141
10,310
Flu season didn't screw Melbourne, mate. Although the mental gymnastics you're attempting to avoid admitting that your covid/flu/winter prediction were flat wrong is impressive.
Haha. I forget that your autism requires everything to be spelled out carefully.

It was obviously not the 'flu' that screwed Melbourne, it was flu SEASON that screwed Melbourne. And yes, it very much did. We went from down to 0 daily cases on some days to 700.

As for the 'double whammy', sure, in March when lockdowns just started and it was impossible to know what measures our governments would be taking in July, I was wrong.

But I was never wrong about the impact of climate on coronavirus transmission, which is what we are actually talking about.
 

Thor Georgeos

God of Funder
Jul 22, 2015
36,309
34,616
Haha. I forget that your autism requires everything to be spelled out carefully.

It was obviously not the 'flu' that screwed Melbourne, it was flu SEASON that screwed Melbourne. And yes, it very much did. We went from down to 0 daily cases on some days to 700.

As for the 'double whammy', sure, in March when lockdowns just started and it was impossible to know what measures our governments would be taking in July, I was wrong.

But I was never wrong about the impact of climate on coronavirus transmission, which is what we are actually talking about.
Lol, k.
 

Saloth Sar

Let's take a little trip to the countryside
Dec 1, 2015
6,141
10,310
Another lesson Australia has recently taught the world is how much luck plays into the spread in particular areas. Melbourne is fenced off from rural Victoria, but obviously some people have work exemptions.

We had a situation here where some dumb fuck cleaner went to work despite living with people with coronavirus, and through that transmission chain, a truck driver got it.

Old mate Truck driver turns out to be one of those 'super spreaders', and visits 3 rural towns in breach of his work permit. Except he only told authorities he had been to two, even though admitting to all 3 carried no penalties (so he was probably doing something genuinely illegal). So suddenly the virus is seeding and spreading in a 3rd previously covid free area without anyone knowing.

All it takes is for the double whammy (shout out to my buddy) of two cunts to get it, and one of those cunts to be a super spreader, and it doesn't matter how stringent the lockdowns are, you are still screwed.

And the crazy thing is, authorities everywhere act like the honor system is viable at a population level. 'Hey Jeffrey Dahmer, can you stop eating people, pretty please? We don't want you spreading coronavirus while you're out there looking for victims'.
 

Thor Georgeos

God of Funder
Jul 22, 2015
36,309
34,616
Another lesson Australia has recently taught the world is how much luck plays into the spread in particular areas. Melbourne is fenced off from rural Victoria, but obviously some people have work exemptions.

We had a situation here where some dumb fuck cleaner went to work despite living with people with coronavirus, and through that transmission chain, a truck driver got it.

Old mate Truck driver turns out to be one of those 'super spreaders', and visits 3 rural towns in breach of his work permit. Except he only told authorities he had been to two, even though admitting to all 3 carried no penalties (so he was probably doing something genuinely illegal). So suddenly the virus is seeding and spreading in a 3rd previously covid free area without anyone knowing.

All it takes is for the double whammy (shout out to my buddy) of two cunts to get it, and one of those cunts to be a super spreader, and it doesn't matter how stringent the lockdowns are, you are still screwed.

And the crazy thing is, authorities everywhere act like the honor system is viable at a population level. 'Hey Jeffrey Dahmer, can you stop eating people, pretty please? We don't want you spreading coronavirus while you're out there looking for victims'.
So what in your opinion, is the lesson to be learned?
 

Saloth Sar

Let's take a little trip to the countryside
Dec 1, 2015
6,141
10,310
So what in your opinion, is the lesson to be learned?
That if you want full elimination, you either need to be prepared to go full Wuhan on cunts or get a monumental amount of of luck. You can't do the 'slow economic death' strategy that Melbourne has been trying, which is to basically attempt elimination without being prepared to take the extremely drastic measures required to achieve it - and even then bad luck could screw you.

Australia is treating Melbourne as the aberration, when in reality it's Sydney that is the aberration. Health authorities there are very competent, but a lot of experts agree that the main reason Sydney has been able to contain multiple outbreaks while Melbourne hasn't has been blind luck.

So if initial elimination efforts fail, as they have in Melbourne, you have to accept a certain levels of transmission and open some shit up again, within reason.
 

Thor Georgeos

God of Funder
Jul 22, 2015
36,309
34,616
That if you want full elimination, you either need to be prepared to go full Wuhan on cunts or get a monumental amount of of luck. You can't do the 'slow economic death' strategy that Melbourne has been trying, which is to basically attempt elimination without being prepared to take the extremely drastic measures required to achieve it - and even then bad luck could screw you.

Australia is treating Melbourne as the aberration, when in reality it's Sydney that is the aberration. Health authorities there are very competent, but a lot of experts agree that the main reason Sydney has been able to contain multiple outbreaks while Melbourne hasn't has been blind luck.

So if initial elimination efforts fail, as they have in Melbourne, you have to accept a certain levels of transmission and open some shit up again, within reason.
Luck it is. You heard it here first public health advisors right from the horses mouth, let's roll the dice.
 

Saloth Sar

Let's take a little trip to the countryside
Dec 1, 2015
6,141
10,310
Luck it is. You heard it here first public health advisors right from the horses mouth, let's roll the dice.
Not everything is luck, mete. It is just a big factor in elimination or levels of suppression. This is not some shocking revelation to epidemiologists. Of course luck plays a role.

 

Thor Georgeos

God of Funder
Jul 22, 2015
36,309
34,616
Not everything is luck, mete. It is just a big factor in elimination or levels of suppression. This is not some shocking revelation to epidemiologists. Of course luck plays a role.

I'm just making sure everyone knows what we should be doing.
 

Prison Rape Survivor

Formerly 'conor mcgregor nut hugger'
Oct 24, 2015
52,008
43,059
So the state of Florida has been misleading the public on its positivity rate. It doesn't use the guidelines set forth by the WHO.

There are two main methods of reporting positivity- the Johns Hopkins method and the WHO method. Florida uses neither, instead opting for a third method that is used by pretty much no one else lol:

Screenshot_20201015-123814_Sun Sentinel.jpg

Screenshot_20201015-123839_Sun Sentinel.jpg

So we've been following WHO reopening guidelines without actually following their recommended positivity rate calculation. Here's what we use vs the WHO metric over the past two weeks:

Screenshot_20201015-124300_Acrobat for Samsung.jpg

Screenshot_20201015-124323_Acrobat for Samsung.jpg

The state has been almost fully reopened for two weeks, despite the fact that we have only been below 5% positivity (using the recommended WHO metric) for 2/14 days.

We're the only state in the continental U.S. without a real winter and we are still going to see a resurgence lol. And it WILL happen before the election, which means Florida will go to Biden because people will be fed up with Trump fuck boi Ron DeSantis.
 

I can count to TCity

Formerly 'Bones Nose'
Jun 13, 2016
14,236
22,988
So the state of Florida has been misleading the public on its positivity rate. It doesn't use the guidelines set forth by the WHO.

There are two main methods of reporting positivity- the Johns Hopkins method and the WHO method. Florida uses neither, instead opting for a third method that is used by pretty much no one else lol:

View attachment 17631

View attachment 17632

So we've been following WHO reopening guidelines without actually following their recommended positivity rate calculation. Here's what we use vs the WHO metric over the past two weeks:

View attachment 17633

View attachment 17634

The state has been almost fully reopened for two weeks, despite the fact that we have only been below 5% positivity (using the recommended WHO metric) for 2/14 days.

We're the only state in the continental U.S. without a real winter and we are still going to see a resurgence lol. And it WILL happen before the election, which means Florida will go to Biden because people will be fed up with Trump fuck boi Ron DeSantis.
Speaking of the WHO they said lockdowns are unnecessary.

Tell your nazi leaders to free the people. Our economy is more important than some bedridden 80yo diabetic. If a healthy normal person gets it they have a 99.99% chance of survival.

Stop shutting things down for some bullshit made in china virus and open the country up.
 

Prison Rape Survivor

Formerly 'conor mcgregor nut hugger'
Oct 24, 2015
52,008
43,059
Speaking of the WHO they said lockdowns are unnecessary.

Tell your nazi leaders to free the people. Our economy is more important than some bedridden 80yo diabetic. If a healthy normal person gets it they have a 99.99% chance of survival.

Stop shutting things down for some bullshit made in china virus and open the country up.
We would be much better off with this guy as our governor: