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Sheepdog

Sheepdog

Protecting America from excessive stool loitering
Dec 1, 2015
8,912
14,224
ConorMcGregorsBeard said:
Flu season didn't screw Melbourne, mate. Although the mental gymnastics you're attempting to avoid admitting that your covid/flu/winter prediction were flat wrong is impressive.
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Haha. I forget that your autism requires everything to be spelled out carefully.

It was obviously not the 'flu' that screwed Melbourne, it was flu SEASON that screwed Melbourne. And yes, it very much did. We went from down to 0 daily cases on some days to 700.

As for the 'double whammy', sure, in March when lockdowns just started and it was impossible to know what measures our governments would be taking in July, I was wrong.

But I was never wrong about the impact of climate on coronavirus transmission, which is what we are actually talking about.
 
BeardOfKnowledge

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
61,332
56,668
Saloth Sar said:
Haha. I forget that your autism requires everything to be spelled out carefully.

It was obviously not the 'flu' that screwed Melbourne, it was flu SEASON that screwed Melbourne. And yes, it very much did. We went from down to 0 daily cases on some days to 700.

As for the 'double whammy', sure, in March when lockdowns just started and it was impossible to know what measures our governments would be taking in July, I was wrong.

But I was never wrong about the impact of climate on coronavirus transmission, which is what we are actually talking about.
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Lol, k.
 
Sheepdog

Sheepdog

Protecting America from excessive stool loitering
Dec 1, 2015
8,912
14,224
Another lesson Australia has recently taught the world is how much luck plays into the spread in particular areas. Melbourne is fenced off from rural Victoria, but obviously some people have work exemptions.

We had a situation here where some dumb fuck cleaner went to work despite living with people with coronavirus, and through that transmission chain, a truck driver got it.

Old mate Truck driver turns out to be one of those 'super spreaders', and visits 3 rural towns in breach of his work permit. Except he only told authorities he had been to two, even though admitting to all 3 carried no penalties (so he was probably doing something genuinely illegal). So suddenly the virus is seeding and spreading in a 3rd previously covid free area without anyone knowing.

All it takes is for the double whammy (shout out to my buddy) of two cunts to get it, and one of those cunts to be a super spreader, and it doesn't matter how stringent the lockdowns are, you are still screwed.

And the crazy thing is, authorities everywhere act like the honor system is viable at a population level. 'Hey Jeffrey Dahmer, can you stop eating people, pretty please? We don't want you spreading coronavirus while you're out there looking for victims'.
 
BeardOfKnowledge

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
61,332
56,668
Saloth Sar said:
Another lesson Australia has recently taught the world is how much luck plays into the spread in particular areas. Melbourne is fenced off from rural Victoria, but obviously some people have work exemptions.

We had a situation here where some dumb fuck cleaner went to work despite living with people with coronavirus, and through that transmission chain, a truck driver got it.

Old mate Truck driver turns out to be one of those 'super spreaders', and visits 3 rural towns in breach of his work permit. Except he only told authorities he had been to two, even though admitting to all 3 carried no penalties (so he was probably doing something genuinely illegal). So suddenly the virus is seeding and spreading in a 3rd previously covid free area without anyone knowing.

All it takes is for the double whammy (shout out to my buddy) of two cunts to get it, and one of those cunts to be a super spreader, and it doesn't matter how stringent the lockdowns are, you are still screwed.

And the crazy thing is, authorities everywhere act like the honor system is viable at a population level. 'Hey Jeffrey Dahmer, can you stop eating people, pretty please? We don't want you spreading coronavirus while you're out there looking for victims'.
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So what in your opinion, is the lesson to be learned?
 
Sheepdog

Sheepdog

Protecting America from excessive stool loitering
Dec 1, 2015
8,912
14,224
ConorMcGregorsBeard said:
So what in your opinion, is the lesson to be learned?
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That if you want full elimination, you either need to be prepared to go full Wuhan on cunts or get a monumental amount of of luck. You can't do the 'slow economic death' strategy that Melbourne has been trying, which is to basically attempt elimination without being prepared to take the extremely drastic measures required to achieve it - and even then bad luck could screw you.

Australia is treating Melbourne as the aberration, when in reality it's Sydney that is the aberration. Health authorities there are very competent, but a lot of experts agree that the main reason Sydney has been able to contain multiple outbreaks while Melbourne hasn't has been blind luck.

So if initial elimination efforts fail, as they have in Melbourne, you have to accept a certain levels of transmission and open some shit up again, within reason.
 
BeardOfKnowledge

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
61,332
56,668
Saloth Sar said:
That if you want full elimination, you either need to be prepared to go full Wuhan on cunts or get a monumental amount of of luck. You can't do the 'slow economic death' strategy that Melbourne has been trying, which is to basically attempt elimination without being prepared to take the extremely drastic measures required to achieve it - and even then bad luck could screw you.

Australia is treating Melbourne as the aberration, when in reality it's Sydney that is the aberration. Health authorities there are very competent, but a lot of experts agree that the main reason Sydney has been able to contain multiple outbreaks while Melbourne hasn't has been blind luck.

So if initial elimination efforts fail, as they have in Melbourne, you have to accept a certain levels of transmission and open some shit up again, within reason.
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Luck it is. You heard it here first public health advisors right from the horses mouth, let's roll the dice.
 
Sheepdog

Sheepdog

Protecting America from excessive stool loitering
Dec 1, 2015
8,912
14,224
ConorMcGregorsBeard said:
Luck it is. You heard it here first public health advisors right from the horses mouth, let's roll the dice.
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Not everything is luck, mete. It is just a big factor in elimination or levels of suppression. This is not some shocking revelation to epidemiologists. Of course luck plays a role.

www.abc.net.au

How fear has helped Sydney suppress a coronavirus second wave, for now

Australia's two biggest states are on completely different coronavirus trajectories — this is what's gone right in NSW, and why it continues to be able to avoid an explosion of new cases.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
 
BeardOfKnowledge

BeardOfKnowledge

The Most Consistent Motherfucker You Know
Jul 22, 2015
61,332
56,668
Saloth Sar said:
Not everything is luck, mete. It is just a big factor in elimination or levels of suppression. This is not some shocking revelation to epidemiologists. Of course luck plays a role.

www.abc.net.au

How fear has helped Sydney suppress a coronavirus second wave, for now

Australia's two biggest states are on completely different coronavirus trajectories — this is what's gone right in NSW, and why it continues to be able to avoid an explosion of new cases.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
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I'm just making sure everyone knows what we should be doing.
 
Sheepdog

Sheepdog

Protecting America from excessive stool loitering
Dec 1, 2015
8,912
14,224
Qat said:
The word luck may be a bit misleading, at least in my mind. Chaos is a factor I'd say.
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It's the word the University of Sydney epidemiologist uses in that article. Good enough for her, good enough for me.
 
M

member 3289

Guest
So the state of Florida has been misleading the public on its positivity rate. It doesn't use the guidelines set forth by the WHO.

There are two main methods of reporting positivity- the Johns Hopkins method and the WHO method. Florida uses neither, instead opting for a third method that is used by pretty much no one else lol:

Screenshot_20201015-123814_Sun Sentinel.jpg

Screenshot_20201015-123839_Sun Sentinel.jpg

So we've been following WHO reopening guidelines without actually following their recommended positivity rate calculation. Here's what we use vs the WHO metric over the past two weeks:

Screenshot_20201015-124300_Acrobat for Samsung.jpg

Screenshot_20201015-124323_Acrobat for Samsung.jpg

The state has been almost fully reopened for two weeks, despite the fact that we have only been below 5% positivity (using the recommended WHO metric) for 2/14 days.

We're the only state in the continental U.S. without a real winter and we are still going to see a resurgence lol. And it WILL happen before the election, which means Florida will go to Biden because people will be fed up with Trump fuck boi Ron DeSantis.
 
T

The Big Guy

Guest
Prison Rape Survivor said:
So the state of Florida has been misleading the public on its positivity rate. It doesn't use the guidelines set forth by the WHO.

There are two main methods of reporting positivity- the Johns Hopkins method and the WHO method. Florida uses neither, instead opting for a third method that is used by pretty much no one else lol:

View attachment 17631

View attachment 17632

So we've been following WHO reopening guidelines without actually following their recommended positivity rate calculation. Here's what we use vs the WHO metric over the past two weeks:

View attachment 17633

View attachment 17634

The state has been almost fully reopened for two weeks, despite the fact that we have only been below 5% positivity (using the recommended WHO metric) for 2/14 days.

We're the only state in the continental U.S. without a real winter and we are still going to see a resurgence lol. And it WILL happen before the election, which means Florida will go to Biden because people will be fed up with Trump fuck boi Ron DeSantis.
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Speaking of the WHO they said lockdowns are unnecessary.

Tell your nazi leaders to free the people. Our economy is more important than some bedridden 80yo diabetic. If a healthy normal person gets it they have a 99.99% chance of survival.

Stop shutting things down for some bullshit made in china virus and open the country up.
 
M

member 3289

Guest
Bones Nose said:
Speaking of the WHO they said lockdowns are unnecessary.

Tell your nazi leaders to free the people. Our economy is more important than some bedridden 80yo diabetic. If a healthy normal person gets it they have a 99.99% chance of survival.

Stop shutting things down for some bullshit made in china virus and open the country up.
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We would be much better off with this guy as our governor:

 
M

member 3289

Guest
Bones Nose said:
That's the definition of a democrat. A homosexual drug addict that wont accept responsibility for his actions.

Him and anthony weiner represent your entire party
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Are you gonna cry on November 3 when Trump loses?

If so, please film it.
 
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