As I suspected from the beginning, Far worse than the sickness itself.
This is the fastest deadly disease I've witnessed in my lifetime.
This is, imo, biological warfare.
This is 20-50x more deadly than the flu, and FAR more virulent.
Probably about 1% in more modern medical systems currently and even less as protocols get kicked in.
I think we should take it seriously from a public health standpoint. If I could stop a new flu, I would. If I could delay it long enough to develop vaccines and use the health system in a serial manner (instead of overloading parallel) I would.
That's where we are at. The economic cost of prevention is high but you only get one chance to contain.
Third party experts all seem to think this is here to stay and to just plan for it to be endemic like flu. However, many global policy experts are still in containment mode and feel this could be stopped before that happens.
I'm a clinician, not a public health expert. But I do think this is one of the paradoxical things that is relatively low risk like flu at the individual level but major red alert if you're at the policy making level.
Roughly 1% mortality rate. 5% severe illness rate. 80+ % mild.
Hard to compare due to rudimentary health systems but we are seeing that kind of rate in S korea that is the largest outbreak with a modern response. Also limited data as too new and too fe cases. So response is probably not optimal like flu.
Other challenge is that every covid 19 case is gonna be hospitalized right now because we don't know anything yet. That wouldn't happen with flu and eventually that won't happen with this. Hospitalization rates etc are all skewed due to public health protocols not necessarily medical need for that patient.
Under 40 covid 19 is very low mortality...prob about 0.2%. flu is 0.05-0.1% in the same group. But again, that's in a vaccinated population with testing and healthcare response.
Over that age number go up fast and especially in over 70.
Flu infection kills little kids. Covid 19 doesn't seem to. So it's not just mortality but age and med problems ahead of time.
1. It is far more virulent
1. It is far more virulent
2. I was going on current data, and it was accurate.
3. Immunity & new data changes the IFR & CFR.
Position has to change with it to be true.
You quoted things that were true then, and aren't now.
It's the intellectual equivalent of quoting someone who says "precipitation is essential for crops", then retorting six months later with "you say that, but all my crops are frozen and destroyed".
You have significantly changed your characterization of this virus.As I suspected from the beginning
I was going on current data, and it was accurate.
Sitting in a conference on covid-19 updates right now.
Will post some take home messages in a bit.
Like, everything here practically is untrue.You stated...
You have significantly changed your characterization of this virus.
In fact the only thing that's been true at that time is the mainstream science I was posting and continue to post that suggested that a great majority of us are not under much threat of this virus but it poses a major public health threat. I can go find my post from the CDC doctor on mortality estimates in march which are within fractions of a percent of the current death estimates. but more importantly the same trends are seen. Very low risk for most of us and very high risk for those with preexisting conditions and older people. This has been very consistent. While that should have been the conversation this thread has been mired in 5G bio weapons and hydroxychloriquine fellating.
My gripe in February as above is that this thread was used for panic and misinformation. It appears now that you are attacking the straw man that you built during that period.
There's been consistent data from mainstream science since that time. And it's born out to be accurate. Even as you suggest while changing course that you are once again on the right side of truth.
Fringe conspiracy theory and politicians have made sure that this is maximally muddled with poor messaging. And while I would accept just about anybody attacking the shit storm of misinformation that has come their way, I feel like highlighting the fact that you have done a 180 here on threat but are still attacking the consistent facts. Just from the opposite side... Same data. The virus was once way more dangerous. But now you state that it's much less dangerous. The data didn't change.
@Splinty, I'll handle this turd.In your opinion, looking at where we are now (remembering America's position isn't unique) what you advise governments be doing?
In your opinion, looking at where we are now (remembering America's position isn't unique) what you advise governments be doing?
Shadow world government confirmed.
U.S. reports highest number of new coronavirus case since late July as total climbs above 8 million
- The United States reported more than 69,000 new coronavirus cases on Friday, bringing the country’s total count to over 8 million reported cases, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
- The last time the U.S. reported a daily count that high was in late July as the coronavirus swept through Sun Belt states.
- The surge in cases comes as infectious disease experts warn the U.S. could face a “substantial third wave” of infections this winter.