General Democratic 2020 Election Watch

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kneeblock

Read Achille Mbembe
Apr 18, 2015
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I would say 300+ would be an unexpected large win by conventional polling wisdom.
Not when you consider the electoral map. 270 is bare minimum. 300 just means you picked up a couple swing states. 315-320 is when you start to get into landslide territory. For reference, Obama got 332 over Romney. 365 against McCain. Bush vs. Gore and Kerry were much tighter. Trump's flipping Pennsylvania especially made 304 no surprise.
 

Splinty

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Dec 31, 2014
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Not when you consider the electoral map. 270 is bare minimum. 300 just means you picked up a couple swing states. 315-320 is when you start to get into landslide territory. For reference, Obama got 332 over Romney. 365 against McCain. Bush vs. Gore and Kerry were much tighter. Trump's flipping Pennsylvania especially made 304 no surprise.

I just meant polling wisdom based on Trump. Yes I'm lowering the bar for him. But getting 300+ with those negatives would be a pretty large win.

Obamas wins were especially impressive given a 6% popular vote resulted in a 100% electoral vote win. Dat ground game. Also lol at McCain suspending and then restarting his campaign. McCain was a head and pulling before that and then was way behind afterwards. What a dope.
 

Thuglife13

Thuglife13
Dec 15, 2018
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I just meant polling wisdom based on Trump. Yes I'm lowering the bar for him. But getting 300+ with those negatives would be a pretty large win.

Obamas wins were especially impressive given a 6% popular vote resulted in a 100% electoral vote win. Dat ground game. Also lol at McCain suspending and then restarting his campaign. McCain was a head and pulling before that and then was way behind afterwards. What a dope.
Also 300% of the black population voted for Obama the first time lulz. He then got spanked in the midterms but won re-election. Yep LoL @ McCain though. Did everything possible to lose and got cucked by Obama. Losing those Republican states IN, NC, was almost as shocking as Trump winning MI, PA, and WI. I think this next election will be close though since I don't think Trump will carry those 3 states again but I don't see the Dems taking any others back besides those 3 but that's still enough to win obviously...
 

Splinty

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Dec 31, 2014
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Also 300% of the black population voted for Obama the first time lulz. He then got spanked in the midterms but won re-election. Yep LoL @ McCain though. Did everything possible to lose and got cucked by Obama. Losing those Republican states IN, NC, was almost as shocking as Trump winning MI, PA, and WI. I think this next election will be close though since I don't think Trump will carry those 3 states again but I don't see the Dems taking any others back besides those 3 but that's still enough to win obviously...

Biden would flip those three and Ohio as things stand right now.

This election is moving to the suburbs. Just like the midterms but more.
Mobilize minorities (Sanders has a problem there right now, but I'm not sure he would in the general) and get white women to vote and you win.

Obama policies but with an old white man that people know, that will talk about losing his son, blue collar Scranton, riding that train for his kids, etc. is a package that will move minorities, suburban women, and pull independents at a higher rate than most. It isn't exciting for the primary crowd that always wants a farther left or farther right...but Biden could clean up in the general in 2020 in a way I don't think he would have in 2016.

The independents and blue wall were trying Trump just for something different because they weren't part of the economic recovery. They arent really part of the boom that's been going on for the last 24 months either. And the Republicans totally screwed up their healthcare response and don't have Trump's infrastructure bill going. Those were two big cross aisle items that Independents wanted to see action on. Trump did a good job of identifying those blue wall crowds that cool headed Obama and robot Hillary failed to engage passionately enough. But a targeted spending bill or health Care solution to keep them loyal has not come. They'll be looking for something new and change candidates like Trump don't do a very good job of asking/getting more time from the electorate without those fast early projects to get people on board.


Thuglife13, post: 1369304, member: 3521"]Also 300% of the black population voted for Obama the first time
What does that mean?
 

Zeph

TMMAC Addict
Jan 22, 2015
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Mobilize minorities (Sanders has a problem there right now, but I'm not sure he would in the general)
People keep repeating this with no evidence to back it up. Here are the favourables broken down by race per dem candidate.
View: https://twitter.com/BenSpielberg/status/1098025189114241024

View: https://twitter.com/BenSpielberg/status/1098025925252272130



View: https://twitter.com/BenSpielberg/status/1098026532344197120


View: https://twitter.com/BenSpielberg/status/1098026906060869633


It's actually white voters were he does the worst.
View: https://twitter.com/BenSpielberg/status/1098027424866955264
 

Zeph

TMMAC Addict
Jan 22, 2015
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Turns out that minorities are on average more likely to support Bernie because of his policies. Who would have thought?
 

Splinty

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Dec 31, 2014
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Because once the primary season heats up I expect to see a return to his 2016 performance



Biden would take every bit of Hillary "super predators" Clinton black support and then some, in a less crowded race with Sanders and some unknown like 2016.

The name recognition part is being underplayed.

No one said black people don't like sanders. But he isn't mobilizing minorities. And I'm not sure you can really count on a poll in which the second place favorability is for Buttgieg, an essential unknown at the national level.


At the end of the day black people didn't show up for Sanders. And favorability is quite different than who you plan to vote for when you only get one vote.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...black-voters-it-could-be-even-more-difficult/

How Hillary Clinton Won the Democratic Nomination Over Bernie Sanders
 

Thuglife13

Thuglife13
Dec 15, 2018
4,627
7,427
Biden would flip those three and Ohio as things stand right now.

This election is moving to the suburbs. Just like the midterms but more.
Mobilize minorities (Sanders has a problem there right now, but I'm not sure he would in the general) and get white women to vote and you win.

Obama policies but with an old white man that people know, that will talk about losing his son, blue collar Scranton, riding that train for his kids, etc. is a package that will move minorities, suburban women, and pull independents at a higher rate than most. It isn't exciting for the primary crowd that always wants a farther left or farther right...but Biden could clean up in the general in 2020 in a way I don't think he would have in 2016.

The independents and blue wall were trying Trump just for something different because they weren't part of the economic recovery. They arent really part of the boom that's been going on for the last 24 months either. And the Republicans totally screwed up their healthcare response and don't have Trump's infrastructure bill going. Those were two big cross aisle items that Independents wanted to see action on. Trump did a good job of identifying those blue wall crowds that cool headed Obama and robot Hillary failed to engage passionately enough. But a targeted spending bill or health Care solution to keep them loyal has not come. They'll be looking for something new and change candidates like Trump don't do a very good job of asking/getting more time from the electorate without those fast early projects to get people on board.




What does that mean?
I agree with you about the 3 states but Ohio is Trump Country. I've always liked Biden and I think he would've beat Trump had he run but he chose not to. I think any Republican would've lost the election other than Trump which why I was legit shocked with his win. I was glued to the tv expecting Hillary to win with ease and then proceeded to lose my shit in happiness that Trump beat her ass. The hard part for Biden in my opinion is winning the primary since he's an old white guy and right now everything other than that is what's hot on the Dem side just look at that white nerd "Beto". Oh and the 300% black vote was just a joke about how much of the Black population came out for Obama's first win. It was off the charts...
 

Splinty

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Dec 31, 2014
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Oh and the 300% black vote was just a joke about how much of the Black population came out for Obama's first win. It was off the charts...

If I were black and there's never been a black president, you better believe my ass would have shown up for him.

It's sort of an amazing condemnation of Hillary Clinton candidate. I don't mind people being swayed that there's never been a woman president. If I'm 50% the population I kind of want to push that over the edge and do it at least once to make it happen.
But her performance was so patronizing every woman I met kept saying they wanted a woman president but just not her.
 

Zeph

TMMAC Addict
Jan 22, 2015
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Because once the primary season heats up I expect to see a return to his 2016 performance



Biden would take every bit of Hillary "super predators" Clinton black support and then some, in a less crowded race with Sanders and some unknown like 2016.

The name recognition part is being underplayed.

No one said black people don't like sanders. But he isn't mobilizing minorities. And I'm not sure you can really count on a poll in which the second place favorability is for Buttgieg, an essential unknown at the national level.


At the end of the day black people didn't show up for Sanders. And favorability is quite different than who you plan to vote for when you only get one vote.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...black-voters-it-could-be-even-more-difficult/
Can't compare to 2016. No one knew who he was and everyone knew who Hillary was. The situation is reversed now with him being the most well known, or at least as well known as Biden if he throws his hat in. He's got prominent members of the black community supporting him from the get go and the first muslim campaign manager. The campaign knows they fucked up last time, but that was partly him being a single issue pressure candidate early on before he really took off.
 

MC Gusto

Freeloading Rusty
Jan 11, 2016
12,766
12,829
How bow dah?

Bernie's campaign $6 million within 24 hours of his announcement from over 200k individual donors.
 

Thuglife13

Thuglife13
Dec 15, 2018
4,627
7,427
He's 1000 years old though and and no amount of money cancels an old ass dinosaur who can't stop licking his lips when he talks and looks like a senile old cuck...
 

Splinty

Shake 'em off
Admin
Dec 31, 2014
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Well that's unexpected.

Trump’s Secret to Victory in 2020: Hispanic Voters


Dems need a play for the Hispanic vote and going far left risks alienating a good proportion.

Growing the big tent probably has to start in the primaries. I'm not sure you're gonna go far left and then come back to the middle for the general while holding it altogether.

But as the political analysis site FiveThirtyEight recently noted, Hispanic Democrats are considerably less liberal than others in the party. Hispanics make up about 12 percent of those who identify as Democrats or who tend to lean Democratic; but they are 22 percent of Democrats who describe themselves as moderate or conservative. Hispanics, roughly half of whom are Catholic (and another quarter are former Catholics), skew conservative on social issues, including abortion.

After Trump’s midterms misfire of trying to rally the Republican base through immigrant-bashing, there is evidence, too, that the 2020 playbook will return to the more tried-and-true method of characterizing Democrats as extreme leftists. He, and other leading Republicans, are lately criticizing Democrats more on abortion, taxes and “socialist” positions on health care and climate change. He’s also made a targeted appeal to Cuban-Americans in Florida by vocally supporting the overthrow of Nicolas Maduro, the socialist leader who has seized power in Venezuela. There is good reason to think that those efforts will be effective on Hispanic voters—or, at least, effective enough

None of this is to suggest that Hispanics are entering a prolonged love affair with Trump. But it does mean that the eventual Democratic nominee can’t simply assume that Hispanic voters will flock to the polls to prevent his second term. If anything, the challenge for the party looks tougher than in 2016—when it arguably cost them the White House.
 

MC Gusto

Freeloading Rusty
Jan 11, 2016
12,766
12,829
2020 Democratic Presidential Hopefuls Support Marijuana Legalization Bill
New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, one of half a dozen Democratic senators running for the White House, is reintroducing a bill on Thursday that would fundamentally end the federal government's prohibition on marijuana.

The Marijuana Justice Act, which was first introduced by Booker in August of 2017, seeks to make marijuana legal at the federal level by removing it from the list of controlled substances, while also expunging the convictions of previous marijuana drug offenders and reinvesting in low-income and minority communities that were particularly hard hit by the federal government's war on drugs.

Some other senators running for president are co-sponsors of the legislation, including Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., Kamala Harris, D-Calif., Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., as well as Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley, who is considering a bid.